U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 170106 
Storm Prediction Center ac 170104 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0704 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 

Valid 170100z - 171200z 

..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 

thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous U.S. Through 

A large-scale upper-level trough will remain in place across the 
central and eastern U.S. Tonight. At the surface, dry and cold high 
pressure will be dominant across the Continental U.S. Limiting the potential 
for thunderstorm development through early Wednesday morning. 

.Broyles.. 01/17/2018 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 162321 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 162320 

Mesoscale discussion 0029 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0520 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 

Areas affected...middle/Upper Texas coast...southeast la 

Concerning...winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 162320z - 170315z 

Summary...ongoing mixed winter precipitation is expected to persist 
for the next few hours. Primary precipitation type will likely be 

Discussion...regional radar data shows an area of relatively heavier 
precipitation across portions of the middle Texas coast moving 
east-southeastward. Higher reflectivities have been noted across 
portions of Wharton and Fort Bend counties with corresponding lower 
correlation coefficients. This represents a broad area of melting 
hydrometeors, which corroborates the 0 degree c isothermal layer 
from 850-700 mb shown on recent rap forecast soundings. Given the 
presence of this layer, a transition to all snow seems unlikely, 
with the most dominant precipitation type remaining sleet for the 
next few hours. Precipitation will gradually taper off during this 
time, from northwest to southeast, as subsidence and dry air 
advection continue to dry the low-level levels. 

.Mosier.. 01/16/2018 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 29029662 29889598 30459418 30489280 30079202 29569228 
29789325 29679381 29389480 28659593 29029662