When a Forecast is Less than No Forecast at All

By: Bryan Norcross, 12:44 PM GMT on September 16, 2016

Can we all agree that mixed messages are bad? And they are especially bad when we want people to act on the messages and make good decisions in the face of a potential extreme weather event? As long as I can remember, it has been conventional emergency-communications wisdom that confusion impedes comprehension and delays action.

Last week I opined that the word “post” in Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was detrimental to clarity (not to mention “c...

Updated: 1:43 PM GMT on September 16, 2016

A Post on Hermine and Why We Need More Hurricanes

By: Bryan Norcross, 11:50 AM GMT on September 09, 2016

Is it me, or has something gone wrong with hurricanes? The storms that come along these days are giant air donuts with the peak wind a relative million miles from the center. The only reason we care about the center is because of the wind direction. Where are eyewalls of yore?

Not that I’m complaining, of course. The whole U.S. coastline is like a house of cards a mile high. A mega disaster on top of a mega disaster waiting to happen. The number 2...

Updated: 2:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2016

The Hermine Headache and What Went Wrong

By: Bryan Norcross, 6:38 PM GMT on September 05, 2016

Winds are picking up on the eastern end of Long Island, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard. Hermine is finally moving north and is leaning back toward the west, meaning the wind will continue to increase and rain will spread toward Long Island and southeastern New England. And the gusty squally weather is going to be around through Wednesday… at least.

The idea that Hermine would drift and loop and agitate the water for a number of days has been in th...

Hermine’s Threat and Message Machinations

By: Bryan Norcross, 4:30 PM GMT on September 03, 2016

We’re going to have a communications kerfuffle about what to call Hermine and how to talk about the threats. And the serious threat of a dangerous coastal storm from coastal Maryland through the Jersey Shore, New York City, Long Island, into New England continues.

The latest forecast calls for 3 to 5 feet of storm surge above normally dry ground with waves on top of that from the Delmarva up through the Jersey Shore, and maybe a foot or two less on the...

Updated: 6:39 PM GMT on September 03, 2016

Another Freak Storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

By: Bryan Norcross, 7:38 PM GMT on September 02, 2016

Hermine is just getting started. All of the drama last night in Florida with Gulf water rising up and pushing into coastal communities, and the rain and wind in the Carolinas today, were just a preview. All indications are that Hermine is going to be another epic storm that breaks all the rules for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

It’s not that the various factors in play have never happened. Storms have combined with cold fronts and the jet stream ...

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This is the official blog for Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel.

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