Two Good Things Happened - Afternoon Update on Invest 99-L

By: Bryan Norcross, 8:28 PM GMT on August 25, 2016

Two good things happened this afternoon: #99-L has weakened dramatically and the models show a weaker system when it gets to Florida.

So where does that leave us? The system still has a large circulation with well-defined spin. But unfavorable upper-level winds and a dry atmosphere have killed off the thunderstorms that were even remotely related to the center, which have to develop and be sustained if the storm is going to strengthen.

And h...

Updated: 9:04 PM GMT on August 25, 2016

Science Is Telling South Florida to Be Ready

By: Bryan Norcross, 4:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2016

So how much do we want to believe modern science? If the science is right, a storm is coming to South Florida on Sunday and will be a threat somewhere on the Gulf coast next week.

This is a tricky one because the tropical blob that’s down at the bottom end of the Bahamas is going to continue to look ugly at least through tomorrow. In fact, it’s so disorganized that it doesn’t qualify for a cone or even a Tropical Storm Watch. So it’s going to b...

Nothing Easy with Invest 99-L

By: Bryan Norcross, 10:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2016

Nothing is getting easier with the tropical system centered down near Puerto Rico. On one hand, it is showing no signs of organizing. On the other, the models still insist there is some chance of a disruptive system approaching or near South Florida over the weekend.

Yesterday I said that the system would have to develop today or it would have a hard time getting very strong. And good news, the system did not develop. In fact, if anything, it became...

Getting Ready to Get Ready

By: Bryan Norcross, 3:14 AM GMT on August 24, 2016

Have you noticed that weather reporting has become like political coverage? It’s the Trump model versus the Clinton model. And just like most political coverage these days, it misses the main point.

The bottom line: In South Florida it’s time to get ready to get ready. There is some reasonable chance that preparations will begin as early as Friday for a storm over the weekend. If a storm develops, the odds are it will head toward the Gulf.
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Louisiana Needed a Red Alert

By: Bryan Norcross, 12:12 PM GMT on August 23, 2016

Since the Louisiana flood disaster, everyone involved in crafting and disseminating weather warnings has been searching their mind and soul for a better way to communicate this kind of threat. The consensus is that the meteorologists generally knew there could be a bad flood, but their concern and urgency didn’t reach the people who needed to take action.

Indeed, a close look at the bulletins and outreach from the National Weather Service office servin...

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This is the official blog for Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel.

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