Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
945 am PST Sat Dec 3 2016
Synopsis...dry weather conditions will persist through the
weekend along with a slight warming trend in daytime temperatures
today. Meanwhile, overnight conditions will remain chilly under
mostly clear skies. A region-wide cool down is forecast for the
first part of next week as a dry cold front pushes through the
region. Rain chances develop later next week.
Discussion...as of 09:00 am PST Saturday...clear skies and
relatively light winds led to a chilly start around the Bay area.
Widespread 30s were recorded this morning with patchy frost, but
closer to urban centers and the coast temps were in the 40s. It
may be chilly, but given the time of year this morning's lows were
close to normal. Winds are much lighter this morning compared to
yesterday at this time. Offshore flow still prevails, but gusts
are only 20-30 mph for the higher peaks of the north and East Bay.
No updates planned this morning.
It will be a pleasant day around the Bay area with highs in the
50s and 60s...or close to climo.
Previous discussion...as of 3:06 am PST Saturday...high temperatures
today should be slightly warmer than those on Friday with upper
50s to mid 60s expected.
A dry cold front is forecast to move across northern California
Sunday night. Since the trajectory of this system is from the
north, there is not expected to be enough moisture to produce rain
as far south as our district. This trough, however, will bring
cooler temperatures to the area beginning on Monday. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 50s, and overnight lows will
be in the 30s and 40s, with the coolest inland areas possibly
dipping down into the upper 20s by Wednesday morning.
The next chance of rain is after midweek when another upper level
trough is progged to approach the area. Medium range models are in
agreement regarding a wetter system impacting the West Coast,
although the main focus is forecast to be across the northern part
of the state. However, given this is still almost one week away,
confidence remains low.
Aviation...as of 9:45 am PST Saturday...for 18z tafs. Some high
clouds with VFR conditions and light offshore winds at the
surface locally stronger in the hills.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR with clear skies and light winds.
Sfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay terminals...clear skies with southeast drainage winds
in the Salinas valley but light winds for kmry and kwvi.
Marine...as of 09:42 am PST Saturday...high pressure over the
eastern Pacific will weaken tonight as a dry frontal system moves
through the area. Northwest winds will temporarily decrease Sunday
night but will increase again Monday through Wednesday. A long
period swell train will affect the coastal waters through Sunday.
... Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
Public forecast: mm
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