Tropical Weather Discussion

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axpz20 knhc 270216
twdep

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 27 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone... 

A surface trough extends from 06n84w to 03n95w. The ITCZ
stretches from 03n121w to 01n140w. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm on either side of the trough between 86w
and 93w. Similar convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ  
between 126w and 137w.

...Discussion...   

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 34n142w extends a ridge 
southeast to near the revillagigedo islands. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico is 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja California
peninsula. The high pressure will shift eastward bringing an
increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California
by late Monday. Marine guidance indicates NW winds in the 20-25
kt range and building seas of 8-10 ft. Large and long period 
swell from the NW will propagate into the waters off Baja 
California norte Monday, and peak near 13 ft early Tuesday 
morning. 

Light to gentle winds with seas 2 ft or less prevails over the 
Gulf of California. As the aforementioned high pressure builds
farther east, expect also increasing winds to 20-25 kt across 
the northern Gulf of California by early Tuesday morning, and 
across the central waters later in the day. Elsewhere, winds will
generally be light to gentle with seas in the 4-6 ft range 
through the middle of next week. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Fresh NE winds are expected over the Gulf of papagayo late tonight
into the early Monday morning. Gentle to moderate northerly winds
are expected across the Gulf of Panama at night. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are expected elsewhere the next several
days.

Remainder of the area...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial
trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the tradewind
belt. Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix of
long period NW swell and NE wind waves. This area of trades will 
persist through Monday, but the aerial extent of the trades will
increase by Monday night as a high pressure located just north 
the area strengthens. At that time, the GFS computer model shows 
a high pressure center of 1032 mb located near 36n131w.

$$
Gr


		
		

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