Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axpz20 knhc 270216 twdepTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 27 2017Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC....Intertropical convergence zone...A surface trough extends from 06n84w to 03n95w. The ITCZ stretches from 03n121w to 01n140w. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the trough between 86w and 93w. Similar convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 126w and 137w....Discussion...Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 34n142w extends a ridge southeast to near the revillagigedo islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. The high pressure will shift eastward bringing an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California by late Monday. Marine guidance indicates NW winds in the 20-25 kt range and building seas of 8-10 ft. Large and long period swell from the NW will propagate into the waters off Baja California norte Monday, and peak near 13 ft early Tuesday morning.Light to gentle winds with seas 2 ft or less prevails over the Gulf of California. As the aforementioned high pressure builds farther east, expect also increasing winds to 20-25 kt across the northern Gulf of California by early Tuesday morning, and across the central waters later in the day. Elsewhere, winds will generally be light to gentle with seas in the 4-6 ft range through the middle of next week.Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador...Fresh NE winds are expected over the Gulf of papagayo late tonight into the early Monday morning. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama at night. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are expected elsewhere the next several days.Remainder of the area...High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the tradewind belt. Seas over this area are in the 8-10 ft range in a mix of long period NW swell and NE wind waves. This area of trades will persist through Monday, but the aerial extent of the trades will increase by Monday night as a high pressure located just north the area strengthens. At that time, the GFS computer model shows a high pressure center of 1032 mb located near 36n131w.$$ Gr
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