Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axpz20 knhc 210325
twdep 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 04n84w to 04n103w. The ITCZ 
continues from 04n103w to 04n123w to 08n131w to 08n140w. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08n to 11n 
between 125w and 135w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

A weakening cold front extends from 26n109w in Mexico across the 
Gulf of California and the Baja Peninsula to 23n112w. This front 
is expected to dissipate tonight or Wed morning in the southern 
Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and seas 1 to 3 ft 
seas will prevail in the Gulf of California through Thu. A cold 
front will reach northern baja Thu evening. Fresh to strong SW 
to W winds will develop ahead of the front over the Gulf of 
California N of 29n Thu night and Fri morning, then subside Fri 
as the front moves S and weakens. High pressure N of the area 
will support moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula 
tonight, accompanied by NW swell maintaining seas of 8 to 12 ft 
N of 24n. This area of high seas will spread se across the 
offshore waters W of baja Wed, then decay through Thu. 

Gulf of tehuantepec: northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-
25 kt late Thu night and Fri morning, with seas peaking around 8 
ft during this brief gap wind event.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central 
America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Gulf of papagayo: strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of papagayo to near 90w through Sun 
morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and 
early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05n while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05n. 

Remainder of the area... 

Strong 1036 mb high pressure centered well N of the area near 
36n140w ridges se across the forecast waters to near the 
revillagigedo islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger
1042 mb high pres arriving near 45n145w by Thu evening. The 
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated 
with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across 
the tropical waters W of 115w.

Long period NW swell dominates the area N of 13n and W of 110w. 
Strong high pres building N of the discussion area will maintain 
an area of strong winds and seas to 12 ft from 12n to 20n W of 
120w Fri and Fri night. This area will slowly shift westward on 
Sat and sun.

  
$$
Mundell


		
		

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