Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 290920

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon may 29 2017

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

A merged tropical wave along 100w to 101w from 07n to 17n with a 
1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 13n100w is located 
within a broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles 
south of Acapulco Mexico. The low is nearly stationary. Model 
guidance shows the low becoming a little better organized during 
the next 3-4 days.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

The monsoon trough extends from a low in NW Colombia near 08n75w 
to low pressure of 1010 mb near 13n100w to 07n124w. The ITCZ 
continues from 07n124w to 05n140w. Scattered moderate convection 
is evident from 06n to 09n between 89w and 103w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

Scatterometer imagery at 0418 UTC showed fresh NW winds along 
the West Coast of Baja California and light westerly winds in 
the Gulf of California. These winds are associated with a high 
pressure oceanic ridge and troughing Mainland Mexico. The high 
will meander west of the region through Wednesday. Strong winds 
north of the area Tuesday will support 8-9 ft NW swell that will 
sweep into the waters west of Baja California norte Wednesday.

Over the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds are 
expected to prevail with perhaps fresh to strong winds 
developing over the northern Gulf of California Wednesday night 
as low pressure develops north of the region. 

Broad low pressure a few hundred miles south of central Mexico 
is forecast to slowly become better organized through Thursday 
as it drifts northwest to north. Widespread showers and a few 
thunderstorms will continue along and south of the coast of 
Mexico south of 16n the next few days. Otherwise, mainly gentle 
to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are expected south of 
Baja California through Thursday. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

The monsoon trough will continue to intersect the region the 
next several days, supporting scattered convection mainly north 
of 03n. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough 
axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate south to southwest winds are 
expected south of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Remainder of the area...

A weak ridge will meander over northwest and north-central 
waters through Tuesday, then shift westward into the central 
Pacific. Gentle to moderate winds are expected over northern 
waters with 5 to 7 ft seas. The only exception will be fresh 
northwest winds forecast to develop north of 29n and east of 
125w by Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to 
low pressure developing inland over the SW United States. These 
winds will support 8 ft seas over that area.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in 
southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6 to 7 ft seas building 
slightly to 7 to 8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades strengthen to 
20 kt mainly from 07n to 15n west of 130w. Seas are expected to 
linger up to 8 ft west of 135w through Wednesday.



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