Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 270603

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 am EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...Special features...

...Gale-force winds in the Atlantic Ocean...

The current synoptic analysis consists of: a surface trough
from 29n66w,to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 24n69w,
to 20n70w. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds and sea heights 
ranging from 13 feet to 17 feet, within 30 nm on either side of
the line from 28n65w to 27.5n67.5w to 26n69.5w. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
hsfat2/fznt02 knhc for more details.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07n12w, curving to 05n15w. The ITCZ continues from 
05n15w, to the Equator along 28w, to 01s36w, and to the coast of 
Brazil near 03s43w. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 04n southward
between 24w and 40w. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere
from 05n southward between 10w and 48w.


...The Gulf of Mexico...

An upper level ridge is moving through the central sections of the
Gulf of Mexico. It is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind flow
everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough is moving
through the central sections of the U.S.A., From 30n in Texas

A surface ridge passes through 32n76w in the Atlantic Ocean, 
across NE Florida, through the central Gulf of Mexico, into the 
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. 

...Low level cloud ceilings and weather for the offshore oil 
platform sites that are in the area whose boundaries are from 27n 
northward and from 88w westward...

Lifr: none.

Ifr: none.

Mvfr: kmzg, kbbf, kbqx, kxih, kvbs, kvaf, kemk, khqi, kgul, 
kehc, kvqt, keir, kikt, and kvky.

Low level cloud ceilings and weather...for the coastal plains of 
the U.S.A. From the deep south of Texas to Florida...

Texas: MVFR in Hebbronville, Palacios, Angleton/Lake Jackson,
Galveston, around the Houston metropolitan area and surrounding
smaller communities, and in Beaumont/Port Arthur. Louisiana: MVFR
in the SW and south central coastal sections, everywhere around
Lake Pontchartrain, and in the se coastal plains. Mississippi:
IFR and MVFR from McComb and Hattiesburg southward. Alabama:
IFR and some MVFR from Dothan-to-Evergreen southward. Florida: 
a mixture of LIFR/IFR/MVFR from Perry westward, into the Florida

...From the western Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea...

An upper level trough passes through 32n75w to 23n71w to Jamaica,
to 16n81w, to southern Nicaragua. A surface ridge extends from the
NW Bahamas to the western two-thirds of Cuba, to Nicaragua.
A surface trough is along 29n66w, to a 1009 mb low pressure 
center that is near 24n69w, to central sections of the Dominican 
Republic, to 17n70w in the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate from
22n between 55w and 72w. Rainshowers are possible from 18n to 22n
between 57w and 72w. 

...The rest of the Caribbean Sea...

The dividing line of wind flow regimes is the Atlantic Ocean
23n71w-to-Nicaragua upper level trough. Upper level SW wind flow 
covers everywhere that is to the east of the trough. Upper level 
NW wind flow is to the NW of the trough.

No 24-hour rainfall totals are listed for the period that ended 
at 27/0000 UTC...according to The Pan American temperature and 
precipitation tables...miatptpan/sxca01 knhc.


Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the 
island. Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal 

Surface observations...for the dominican republic: Santo domingo:
MVFR. Ceiling 1800 feet. Few cumulonimbus clouds. La romana: VFR.
Punta cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto plata: VFR.

The GFS model forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will 
move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend
from Colombia to 10n95w in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The GFS 
model forecast for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows that SW wind 
flow will be moving across the area, with a trough to the W and NW
of the area. The wind flow will become SW-to-W, as a second 
trough moves into the Windward Passage at the end of the 48-hour 
forecast period. 

...The rest of the Atlantic Ocean...

An upper level trough passes through 32n16w to 20n25w and 10n26w.
A dissipating cold front passes through 32n28w to 30n30w and
29n34w. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 
17n northward between Africa and 27w.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 10n 
to 29n between Africa and 50w. A 1022 mb high pressure center is 
near 27n24w.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 30n
northward between 50w and the se coast of the U.S.A.

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