Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 200600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans/200600z-210600zoct2018//
rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96w) previously located 
near 22.5n 151.3e, is now located near 23.2n 151.2e, approximately 
700 nm north-northeast of andersen AFB, Guam. Animated multispectral 
satellite imagery and a 192352z mhs 89ghz microwave image depict an 
elongated and mostly exposed circulation with a small pocket of 
shallow convection located near the eastern periphery. A 192314z 
partial ascat pass shows a very elongated circulation with primarily 
10-15 knot winds associated with it. The disturbance is currently 
located in an area of excellent poleward outflow, low vertical wind 
shear (5-10 knots), and warm sea surface temperatures (28-30 
celsius). Models are currently not showing intensification to 
warning criteria as the system tracks to the north, then northeast, 
as it rounds a subtropical ridge that is located to the east. 
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. 
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1009 mb. The 
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone 
within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) the area of convection (invest 97w) previously located 
near 8.2n 164.7e, is now located near 8.3n 163.1e, approximately 
1125 nm east-southeast of andersen AFB, Guam. Animated multispectral 
satellite imagery and a 200211z gmi 89ghz partial microwave image 
depict an elongated low level circulation with deep convective 
pockets located near the center. The disturbance is currently 
located in an area of excellent equatorward outflow, low (10-15 
knots) vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures 
(30-31 celsius). Global models indicate the system will track to the 
west-northwest over the next several days and begin to consolidate 
quickly and intensify to warning criteria within the next few days.  
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. 
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The 
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone 
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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