Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 220600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/220600z-230600zsep2017//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 90w) previously located 
near 7.5n 133e, is now located near 13.1n 128.4e, approximately 430 
nm east of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery depicts light convection over an ill-defined low level 
circulation (llc). A 220134z metop-b ascat image shows the llc has a
broad, elongated structure with 15kt winds over the southern arc. 
The disturbance is currently located in an area of good divergence 
aloft, low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), and very warm sea 
surface temperatures (30-31 celsius). Currently global models show 
invest 90w tracking northwest, but show no significant development 
within the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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