Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 161800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
Ocean/161800z-171800znov2017//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 90b) previously located 
near 17.1n 84.5e, is now located near 18.1n 85.2e, approximately 107 
nm east of visakhapatnam, India. Animated enhanced infrared 
satellite imagery depicts a broad, low-level circulation with 
dissipating convection sheared to the north.  A 161525z metop-b 
89ghz image shows poorly organized shallow banding. Environmental 
analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment with high 
vertical wind shear offset by strong poleward outflow and warm sea 
surface temperatures. Dynamic global model guidance indicates the 
system will track north-northeastward, initially maintaining current 
intensity, then dissipating as it tracks over land.  Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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