Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abio10 pgtw 261800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
Ocean/261800z-271800zmay2017//
rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94b) previously located 
near 11.8n 88.7e, is now located near 13.9n 88.4e, approximately 540 
nm south-southwest of chittagong, bangladesh. Animated enhanced 
infrared satellite imagery shows broad turning circulation with 
disorganized, flaring convection around edges. A 261525z AMSU-b 
metop-b microwave image confirms flaring convection over the 
disturbance. The disturbance is located in a region of favorable 
wind shear (10-15 kts), good upper level divergence, and warm sea 
surface temperatures (28-29c). Global models are in agreement that 
the disturbance will track to the northeast over the next several 
days but are not consistent on the timing that the system will 
intensify. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. 
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone 
within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//
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