Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 161800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/161351znov2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 161200z, tropical cyclone 07b (gaja) was located near
9.7n 76.5e, approximately 15 nm south- southeast of cochin, India,
and had tracked west-southwestward at 13 knots over the past six
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 40 knots
gusting to 50 knots. See ref a (wtio31 pgtw 161500) for further
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (remnants of 04s) previously
located near 8.7s 92.6e, is now located near 10.2s 91.3e,
approximately 350 nm west-northwest of Cocos Islands. Animated
enhanced infrared imagery shows a broad low level circulation (llc)
with deep convection sheared to the west. A 161228z ssmis f-17 91ghz
microwave image shows a low level wrapping with a small pocket of
deep convection to the west of the llc. The remnants of 04s are in a
generally unfavorable environment with favorable (26 to 28 degrees
celsius) sea surface temperatures and moderate poleward outflow
offset by high (20 to 30 knot) vertical wind shear. Global models
are in good agreement that 04s will track southwest with limited
development in the next several days. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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