U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 250540 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1240 am CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 


Valid 261200z - 271200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday 
afternoon and evening over parts of central Oklahoma and North 
Texas... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the 
Southern Plains... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of 
the Southern Plains... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of 
the southern and central Appalachians... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a 
tornado or two will be possible in parts of the Southern Plains on 
Sunday. Isolated strong wind gusts and hail may also occur in parts 
of the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. 


..Southern Plains... 
The current water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough 
approaching Southern California. This feature will move across the southern 
rockies on Saturday before emerging into the Southern Plains on 
Sunday. Models have been quite consistent with the timing and 
position of this feature, lending confidence in a focused severe 
weather event on Sunday over parts of OK and North Texas. 


By afternoon, a surface low is expected to be positioned over 
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southward into western North 
Texas. Thunderstorms are likely to develop along the dryline during 
the mid-late afternoon and track east-northeastward across a rather 
narrow warm sector. Forecast soundings from several 00z models 
indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 
upper 50s to around 60f. Forecast hodographs appear favorable for 
discrete supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds, as 
well as tornadoes. However, limited low-level moisture may prove to 
be a negative factor for a more substantial tornado event. Given 
the narrow corridor of instability, confidence in the eastward 
progress of the severe threat into Arkansas is low at this time. 


..southern and central Appalachians... 
A shortwave trough currently over the Central Plains will track only 
slowly eastward and still be affecting the eastern states on Sunday. 
A consensus of 00z model solutions suggest a corridor of at least 
marginal cape will develop on Sunday afternoon from northern Alabama/Georgia 
into WV and southeast Ohio. Forecast soundings suggest relatively 
cool mid level temperatures and strong winds aloft. These 
parameters would support a risk of hail and gusty/damaging winds in 
the stronger cells that form. The risk of severe storms should 
diminish around sunset. 


.Hart.. 03/25/2017 


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