- Day Three
acus02 kwns 230545
Storm Prediction Center ac 230544
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019
Valid 241200z - 251200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
A few strong storms may occur Sunday morning along a cold front
across portions of the southeast.
Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes region early in the period as a 110kt+
500mb speed Max translates across the Ohio Valley. Associated surface
front will progress to a position from Ohio - southern Appalachians -
Florida Panhandle at 24/12z. Remnants of organized deep convection that
materializes during the day1 period is expected to advance across
the northern Gulf states during the overnight hours. This activity
will slowly weaken as frontal convection encounters less favorable
thermodynamic environment along southern fringe of large-scale
forcing for ascent. Latest short-range guidance and href data
support a gradual weakening, likely due to weakening frontal
convergence as upper trough ejects well north of this region.
Forecast soundings ahead of the wind shift exhibit MUCAPE on the
order of 500 j/kg with only modest mid-level lapse rates. Latest
thinking is broken squall line should advance across eastern
Alabama/northwest Georgia into the marginal risk area with some attendant wind
threat. This activity is expected to continue weakening as the front
progresses across Georgia.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: 5% - marginal
hail: <5% - none