U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 230545 
Storm Prediction Center ac 230544 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1144 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the southeast... 

A few strong storms may occur Sunday morning along a cold front 
across portions of the southeast. 


Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the upper 
Midwest into the Great Lakes region early in the period as a 110kt+ 
500mb speed Max translates across the Ohio Valley. Associated surface 
front will progress to a position from Ohio - southern Appalachians - 
Florida Panhandle at 24/12z. Remnants of organized deep convection that 
materializes during the day1 period is expected to advance across 
the northern Gulf states during the overnight hours. This activity 
will slowly weaken as frontal convection encounters less favorable 
thermodynamic environment along southern fringe of large-scale 
forcing for ascent. Latest short-range guidance and href data 
support a gradual weakening, likely due to weakening frontal 
convergence as upper trough ejects well north of this region. 
Forecast soundings ahead of the wind shift exhibit MUCAPE on the 
order of 500 j/kg with only modest mid-level lapse rates. Latest 
thinking is broken squall line should advance across eastern 
Alabama/northwest Georgia into the marginal risk area with some attendant wind 
threat. This activity is expected to continue weakening as the front 
progresses across Georgia. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: 5% - marginal 
hail: <5% - none 

.Darrow.. 02/23/2019