U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 250655 
Storm Prediction Center ac 250654 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0154 am CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 

Valid 271200z - 281200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday over 
parts of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the 
arklatex region into the lower Ohio Valley... 

Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the middle and lower 
Mississippi Valley on Monday. 

..middle/lower MS valleys... 
The shortwave trough that will affect the Southern Plains on Sunday 
will progress eastward into the MS valley on Monday. Models are in 
good agreement that the primary surface low will be over northwest 
Arkansas on Monday morning, and will track into southern Illinois by evening. 
Thunderstorms will likely intensify during the afternoon in the warm 
sector over Arkansas and spread northeastward into parts of Kentucky/TN/MS 
through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest relatively steep 
lapse rates and strong winds aloft. This will support a risk of 
hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Thunderstorms 
will spread into the Tennessee/Ohio valleys after dark, but weaker 
instability and uncertainty regarding the weakening of wind fields 
in this area lower confidence in a continued severe threat. 

.Hart.. 03/25/2017