U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 230712 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 230711 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0211 am CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 


Valid 251200z - 261200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated thunderstorms are expected along the central/eastern Gulf 
Coast on Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. 


... 
Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will overspread areas from the central 
Gulf Coast eastward on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude impulse will 
initially cross the region during the day, and an initial surge of 
warm-air advection may yield enough elevated buoyancy for a few 
thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida 
Panhandle. Behind this initial impulse, a secondary, more amplified 
shortwave trough will approach the southeastern US Thursday night. 
Strengthening southwesterly 850mb flow and isentropic ascent may 
yield isolated thunderstorms farther east across the Florida 
Peninsula and portions of southern Georgia. 


Through the period, expansive precipitation across inland areas and 
a lack of stronger large-scale ascent near the coast should preclude 
significant poleward return of surface Theta-E, limiting 
surface-based destabilization. In turn, severe weather is not 
forecast, despite strengthening wind fields. 


.Picca.. 10/23/2018 


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