U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 230742 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 230741 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0141 am CST Sat Feb 23 2019 


Valid 251200z - 261200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
some thunder potential is possible with weak convection from the 
Upper Texas coast to southwest Louisiana. 


..Upper Texas coast/southwest la... 


Neutral/weak height rises are forecast across the south-central 
US/northern Gulf basin Monday. As a result, early-day surface 
anticyclone is expected to remain influential through the period. 
Low-level trajectories are not expected to be particularly favorable 
for appreciable moisture to advance inland as east-northeast surface 
winds should persist much of the day along the Gulf Coast. Latest 
guidance does suggest a weak mid-level short-wave trough will eject 
across northern Mexico toward deep south Texas during the latter half 
of the period. In response, weak low level jet is expected to develop across 
the northwest Gulf basin into the Upper Texas coast. Warm advection 
atop retreating/weakening surface high could prove sufficient for 
weak convection and the possibility for some thunder late in the 
period. 


.Darrow.. 02/23/2019 


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