U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Today
Tomorrow
Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 161231 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 161229 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0629 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018 


Valid 161300z - 171200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous U.S. Today or 
tonight. 


... 


A large area of Arctic high pressure will spread through remainder 
of the central and eastern U.S. Today with offshore flow promoting 
stable conditions inland. 


.Dial.. 01/16/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 161309 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 161309 
txz000-161615- 


Mesoscale discussion 0028 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0709 am CST Tue Jan 16 2018 


Areas affected...south central into a portion of southeast Texas 


Concerning...freezing rain 


Valid 161309z - 161615z 


Summary...light freezing rain with rates up to .02 inches per hour 
mixed with some sleet at times will likely persist next few hours 
from south central into a portion of southeast Texas. The corridor 
of freezing rain should slowly shift southeast with time. 


Discussion...early this morning an Arctic front has pushed into deep 
south Texas with temperatures falling into the upper 20s f farther 
north across south-central Texas. RUC sounding and vwp data indicate 
this front is less than 1 km deep with a pronounced warm nose around 
850 mb. A shallow convective layer is also evident between 850 and 
700 mb. Frontogenetic forcing in the 900-700 mb layer with weak 
isentropic ascent will continue to promote the development of patchy 
showers this morning with freezing rain being the primary concern. 
Some of the freezing rain may mix with sleet and change to snow 
before ending from the west as the deeper cold air spreads southward 
with time. 


.Dial.. 01/16/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...hgx...crp...ewx... 


Latitude...Lon 30079786 30039684 30189552 29689506 28899667 28649875 
29120047 30119995 30079786