U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 010544 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 010543 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1143 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015 


Valid 011200z - 021200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across 
parts of central and Southern California Sunday...and from parts of 
extreme East Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Isolated 
thunderstorms may also develop across central Florida on Sunday 
afternoon. 


... 


A split flow regime will persist Sunday with a cutoff upper low 
drifting slowly southward through California while a low amplitude ridge builds 
over the Southern Plains. A northern stream shortwave trough will advance from 
the northern plains through the Great Lakes area. 


..cntrl through scntrl California... 


Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely develop once 
again over a portion of central into scntrl California where diabatic warming 
beneath cold air aloft associated with an upper low circulation will 
result in steep lapse rates and weak instability. 


..lower MS valley area... 


Scattered elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will persist 
within a zone of isentropic ascent along warm conveyor belt where 
low-level Theta-E advection beneath modest middle-level lapse rates 
will contribute to weak instability. 


..cntrl Florida... 


Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely once again develop 
in vicinity of an east-west boundary and in association with sea breeze 
circulations across central Florida during the day. Activity will diminish 
during the evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling. 


.Dial/picca.. 03/01/2015 






Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 010842 
moz000-arz000-011145- 


Mesoscale discussion 0108 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0242 am CST sun Mar 01 2015 


Areas affected...N-cntrl Arkansas / S-central and southeastern MO 


Concerning...freezing rain 


Valid 010842z - 011145z 


Summary...freezing rain rates 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours are 
possible through 12z across north-central Arkansas into portions of southeastern MO. 


Discussion...radar mosaic shows scattered showers across the Ozark 
Plateau and moving northeastward to towards the MS-Ohio River confluence within 
a warm conveyer. GPS data and satellite-derived data show precipitable water in 
excess of 0.75 inch over the region to the north of a stationary surface 
baroclinic zone over the lower MS valley extending into the Tennessee 
Valley. Surface temperatures generally remain in the 27-32 degree f range and 
indicate a shallow sub-freezing near-surface layer beneath a melting 
layer which favors freezing rain p-type. Model guidance suggests 
another few hours of scattered showers is likely across the region 
and freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours are probable 
through 12z. 


.Smith.. 03/01/2015 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...pah...Meg...lsx...lzk...sgf... 


Latitude...Lon 36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177 
36399309