Hurricane Bud Becomes the Second Major Hurricane of the Eastern Pacific Season

Jonathan Erdman
Published: June 11, 2018

Hurricane Bud became the second major hurricane in just over three days in the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Monday and will bring at least more peripheral impacts to parts of Mexico's Pacific coast than its predecessor last week, Aletta.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Bud's center is currently just over 250 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, moving northwestward.


Current Storm Status

Infrared satellite imagery shows some outer rainbands lingering near the southwestern coast of Mexico.

These outer rainbands will continue to push ashore at times through midweek.

Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals up to 10 inches, into Tuesday afternoon across much of southwestern Mexico. This heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in high-terrain areas.

Bud's eyewall, containing its strongest winds, will remain far offshore. However, we can't rule out a brush of tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, as those aforementioned rainbands brush the states of Jalisco and Colima.

Late this week, the center of Bud could approach Mexico's southern Baja California Peninsula, but it will be weakening as it nears Los Cabos due to cooler waters and increased wind shear.

At this time, the most likely outcome is the passing of Bud as a low-end tropical storm or tropical depression near Los Cabos on Friday. Interests in Los Cabos should continue to monitor the progress of Bud this week.

(FORECAST: Los Cabos, Mexico)


Bud's Forecast Path

High surf and rip currents will be a threat much of this week along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula. If in doubt, stay out of the water at area beaches this week, and heed all warnings from local lifeguards.

Eventually, Bud could help trigger a surge of moisture in the Desert Southwest, where an increase in showers and storms may occur late this week and into the weekend.

(MORE: Moisture From Bud Could Bring Phoenix, Tucson First Rain in 3 Months)

The average date when the first named storm forms in the Eastern Pacific Basin is June 10, according to National Hurricane Center data from 1971 to 2009. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees the first hurricane form by June 26.

It's not unusual for the Eastern Pacific season's first storm to be a Category 4 hurricane. It has happened seven other times since 1970, according to NOAA's historical hurricanes database.

The 2015 season began with Category 4 Hurricane Andres followed by Category 4 Hurricane Blanca, the record-earliest-in-season second Eastern Pacific hurricane and major hurricane, which later became the record-earliest Baja California landfall, as a tropical storm.

However, only one of these "A" hurricanes has reached Category 5 intensity: Hurricane Ava in June 1973, according to NOAA.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter and subscribe to The Weather Channel podcast on Apple, Google Play, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.


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