Hurricane Jose

Last Updated: 1505811600

Location:
36.0N 71.3W
Movement:
N at 9 mph
Wind:
75 mph
Pressure:
971 mb

Storm Maps
Storm Details

Select a report to view:

Satellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is
persisting near the center of Jose.  While it doesn't look
particularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts
connected to the center and the system is definitely warm core.
Thus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed
remains 65 kt based on the previous reconnaissance mission.
Some weakening is likely to begin within 24 hours due to Jose
moving over colder waters.  Continued weakening is in the forecast
due to the marginal water temperatures, although the system could
eventually move over the warm Gulf Stream again if it takes a
southward turn in the right spot.  Thus, the intensity forecast is
about the same as the previous one through 72 hours, then is
leveled off at 45 kt to account for the warmer water possibility.

Jose continues to move erratically northward, with the center
wobbling due to the convective bursts.  The hurricane should turn
toward the northeast and east over the next two days as it moves
around a ridge over the western Atlantic.  After that point, the
forecast becomes more uncertain, with some models curving the system
south and west under a building high over the northeastern United
States, and others drifting the cyclone eastward just out of The
Reach of the ridge.  With the guidance shifting eastward on this
cycle, the official forecast will follow the trend, although not
shift as strongly to the east since it wouldn't take a very large
track error to either catch or miss that ridge.

Key messages:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. Coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. East Coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches
are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. This
rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Elsewhere, Jose is expected
to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the
mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init  19/0900z 36.0n  71.3w   65 kt  75 mph
 12h  19/1800z 37.1n  71.1w   65 kt  75 mph
 24h  20/0600z 38.5n  70.1w   60 kt  70 mph
 36h  20/1800z 39.6n  68.7w   55 kt  65 mph
 48h  21/0600z 40.0n  67.2w   50 kt  60 mph
 72h  22/0600z 39.3n  66.4w   45 kt  50 mph...Post-tropical
 96h  23/0600z 38.7n  66.6w   45 kt  50 mph...Post-tropical
120h  24/0600z 38.5n  67.0w   45 kt  50 mph...Post-tropical

$$
forecaster Blake


		

Learn more about Hurricane Jose and the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones


Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Sep 05 1500 GMT 12.3 -39.1 40 1008 Tropical Storm
Sep 05 2100 GMT 12.5 -40.6 45 1006 Tropical Storm
Sep 06 0300 GMT 12.3 -41.7 50 1004 Tropical Storm
Sep 06 0900 GMT 12.5 -42.8 60 1002 Tropical Storm
Sep 06 1500 GMT 13.1 -44.5 70 998 Tropical Storm
Sep 06 2100 GMT 13.9 -45.8 75 994 Hurricane
Sep 07 0300 GMT 14.4 -47.5 85 989 Hurricane
Sep 07 0900 GMT 14.8 -49.1 90 986 Hurricane
Sep 07 1500 GMT 14.9 -50.6 90 986 Hurricane
Sep 07 2100 GMT 15.5 -52.4 120 966 Hurricane
Sep 08 0300 GMT 15.6 -53.9 120 966 Hurricane
Sep 08 0900 GMT 16.0 -55.3 125 957 Hurricane
Sep 08 1500 GMT 16.3 -57.1 150 942 Hurricane
Sep 08 2100 GMT 16.6 -58.3 150 940 Hurricane
Sep 09 0300 GMT 16.9 -59.3 155 938 Hurricane
Sep 09 0900 GMT 17.5 -60.3 150 940 Hurricane
Sep 09 1500 GMT 18.3 -61.3 145 945 Hurricane
Sep 10 0300 GMT 19.8 -63.4 135 944 Hurricane
Sep 10 0900 GMT 20.8 -64.5 135 944 Hurricane
Sep 10 1500 GMT 21.7 -65.8 135 944 Hurricane
Sep 10 2100 GMT 22.8 -66.9 120 956 Hurricane
Sep 11 0300 GMT 23.7 -68.1 115 962 Hurricane
Sep 11 0900 GMT 24.4 -68.6 105 968 Hurricane
Sep 11 1500 GMT 25.5 -69.1 105 968 Hurricane
Sep 11 2100 GMT 26.4 -69.2 100 973 Hurricane
Sep 12 0300 GMT 27.1 -69.5 85 982 Hurricane
Sep 12 0900 GMT 27.5 -69.0 75 987 Hurricane
Sep 12 1500 GMT 27.5 -68.3 75 987 Hurricane
Sep 12 2100 GMT 27.6 -67.4 75 987 Hurricane
Sep 13 0300 GMT 26.5 -66.4 75 985 Hurricane
Sep 13 0900 GMT 26.1 -66.0 75 985 Hurricane
Sep 13 1500 GMT 25.5 -65.6 75 985 Hurricane
Sep 13 2100 GMT 25.3 -65.6 75 988 Hurricane
Sep 14 0300 GMT 25.2 -66.0 80 985 Hurricane
Sep 14 0900 GMT 25.1 -66.5 75 986 Hurricane
Sep 14 1500 GMT 24.9 -66.6 70 989 Tropical Storm
Sep 14 2100 GMT 25.2 -67.3 70 989 Tropical Storm
Sep 15 0300 GMT 25.5 -68.0 70 989 Tropical Storm
Sep 15 0900 GMT 25.9 -68.7 70 989 Tropical Storm
Sep 15 1500 GMT 26.5 -69.4 70 989 Tropical Storm
Sep 15 2100 GMT 27.1 -70.3 75 983 Hurricane
Sep 16 0300 GMT 27.4 -71.0 80 983 Hurricane
Sep 16 0900 GMT 27.9 -71.8 80 983 Hurricane
Sep 16 1500 GMT 28.8 -72.2 80 982 Hurricane
Sep 16 2100 GMT 28.9 -71.9 80 973 Hurricane
Sep 17 0300 GMT 29.2 -71.8 80 973 Hurricane
Sep 17 0900 GMT 30.0 -71.7 80 973 Hurricane
Sep 17 1500 GMT 31.0 -71.9 90 967 Hurricane
Sep 17 2100 GMT 31.5 -71.8 90 967 Hurricane
Sep 18 0300 GMT 32.2 -71.6 90 972 Hurricane
Sep 18 0900 GMT 33.0 -71.4 85 974 Hurricane
Sep 18 1500 GMT 33.9 -71.1 75 977 Hurricane
Sep 18 2100 GMT 34.8 -71.1 75 977 Hurricane
Sep 19 0300 GMT 35.2 -71.3 75 975 Hurricane
Sep 19 0900 GMT 36.0 -71.3 75 971 Hurricane

Category 6

Welcome to Category 6. This is the collective home for Weather Underground's featured writeups by Dr. Jeff Masters (right), Bob Henson (left), Chris Burt, and other regular contributors.

Learn more about Hurricane Jose and the 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Archive

All Atlantic Storms (1851-2017)

Named Storms for 2016

Historical Hurricane Statistics


Articles of Interest