Saint Petersburg, Florida

... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday
morning...
... High surf advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM
EST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a high surf
advisory... which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM
EST Thursday. A coastal Flood Watch remains in effect through
Thursday morning.

An increasing southerly to southwesterly wind flow ahead of an
intensifying low pressure area moving over the southeastern states
will help to build seas over the adjacent Gulf waters during
through Thursday. The strong wind flow and increasing seas may
produce minor coastal flooding at times of high tide this
afternoon and Thursday... with large breaking wave action
possibly producing additional overwash and flooding in some
locations. The increasing winds and seas will also cause hazardous
surf conditions and strong rip currents... with southern facing
beaches being impacted first this afternoon... then as winds shift
around to the west through Thursday impacting all local beaches.

At the current time tides are expected to run about 2 to 3 feet
above mean sea level at times of high tide this afternoon and
Thursday from Pasco County south through Manatee County. Coastal
residents should review evacuation plans... and be ready to move at
a moment's notice... should action be required.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch is issued for the possibility of coastal
flooding.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further
updates on this developing weather situation.

A high surf advisory is issued when dangerous water action is
expected along the coast. This includes rough surf... large
breaking waves... rip currents... and strong undertow.

Beach goers are urged to heed lifeguard warnings.

... Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM EST this
evening...

A strong surface pressure gradient will continue today in
between a low pressure system pushing northeast and a high
pressure system off the Atlantic coast. Strong low level winds
will have the potential to mix down to the surface which will
increase to 20 to 25 mph over area lakes.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A lake Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast
to be 20 to 29 mph with frequent gusts to near or above gale
force for at least 3 hours. Winds of these magnitudes will
create rough conditions on larger area lakes which could produce
damage to... or flip... small pleasure craft.

Outdoor enthusiasts may wish to postpone lake related activities
until conditions improve.

... Potential for severe storms and coastal hazards today into
Thursday...

Developing low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico will
continue to intensify as it moves across the southeastern states
today. Ahead of the low an increasing moist
southerly wind flow will develop over the region. This increasing
southerly flow over the adjacent Gulf waters will help to build seas
and generate large breaking waves... dangerous rip currents and high
surf along area beaches today into Thursday.

Tides are expected to run above normal along the entire West Coast
of Florida... ranging from around one foot above normal near Fort
Myers to 2 to 3 feet above normal around the Tampa Bay region...
to 3 to 4 feet above normal further north along the Citrus and
Levy County coasts. These above normal tides could cause some
coastal flooding at times of high tide today and
tonight... especially along the Nature Coast. Therefore... a coastal
Flood Watch is in effect from Manatee County northward through Levy
County.

The strong southerly wind flow and increasing seas will make for
hazardous boating conditions over the adjacent Gulf waters... and
mariners... fishermen... and boating enthusiasts may want to
postpone trips into the Gulf until conditions improve late in
the week.

As the low pressure area lifts northeast into the southeastern
states this afternoon a trailing cold front will approach from the
west.
A moist and unstable air mass ahead of this front will set the stage
for showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the
boundary as it moves toward west central and southwest Florida.
Current timing of this front would bring showers and thunderstorms
into the Nature Coast by mid afternoon... with this activity
spreading south into the Tampa Bay area during the early evening
hours... and then across southwest Florida by midnight.

At the current time sufficient low level moisture combined with
strong prefrontal convergence and increasing wind shear within
the atmosphere may support some strong to severe storms as the
front moves south through the region... especially from the Tampa
Bay area north through the Nature Coast. The main hazards from these
storms will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes and
waterspouts. In addition... locally heavy rainfall and deadly
lightning strikes will accompany the storms.

All residents and visitors of west central and southwest Florida
should remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions today and
tonight.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media outlet for
further updates on this developing weather situation.