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TornadoFan's look at Gulf Coast Weather |
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Last Updated: 11:54 AM GMT on November 08, 2009
— Last Comment: 10:39 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
11/8
Well, Ida seem determined to cause a nuisance to the Mobile/Pensacola area and points east. Models have it curving east right at the coast. Will it curve before hitting? Will it transition to extratropical before hitting? I'm starting to have my doubts.  ---------------------------------------------------------- 11/7 Ida should be a hurricane again soon. Models, as seen below, aim Ida way up to near the Central Gulf Coast. I think it will curve east in the GOM and head toward the west coast of the Florida pennisula. It will probably be in the middle of transitioning to an extratropical low pressure system. I expect tropical storm force winds somewhere along the Florida coast. There may be an isolated tornado or two, but it is too early to say.  ----------------------------------------------------------- Early PM - it's IDA now. Now, where will she go? Update I have changed title from "97L - soon to be TD 11", to "TD 11 - soon to be Ida" 11/4 - Happy November! Looks like 97 is saying, "I think I can, I think I can..." It will soon be named TD 11, I'm fairly certain. Still too early to say where it will go. There's a chance it could make an early landfall in Central America and wash itself out. However, I'd be nervous if I were living in the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, or Cuba - that's for sure. There is a lot of warm water to tap, if a system gets an atmosphere to support it.        
10/30 - Fairly active day yesterday in Louisiana. Looks like today will be calmer. Below is a picture of a church steeple landing on a car occupied by a gentleman. According to TWC last night he survived but was in serious condition.1 dead, thousands without power in wake of tornadoes-----------------------------------------------------------10/29 - Tornado Watch boxes are out this morning for Texas and Oklahoma in the pre-dawn hours. I don't see many warnings, ...
Early Thursday 10/22It appears that the weather could get active across SE Texas and Louisiana, along with surrounding areas. I've update the graphics below. Unfortunately, I won't be around the Internet this afternoon to watch it. Figures...NHC has now two areas of interest - our ex-94L and another near the Bahamas. Will have to watch both. I don't anticipate the Bahamas area to get strong, but it is closer and may enhance rain chances for Florida. The Caribb...
10/16 early AMA cold front is slowing making its way down the Florida peninsula and should clear it by late tomorrow. In front of it, t-storms should form, however the possibility of tornadoes are quite small. Eyes are focusing on Rick in the EPAC. Will it cross Mexico and cause a heavy rain event for Texas and the Southeast? We will have several days to watch it play out.Graphs updated below...--------------------------------------------------------10/15 early ...
Well, the sea breeze storms I anticipated yesterday did NOT come close to forming. However, the set up is slightly better today as we have a Meso over Texas currently heading in this general direction. I’ll up the chance of rain all the way up to 10%, with chance of hearing thunder at 20%. I’ve attached yesterday’s reasoning for more info.The change is the forecast is that MAYBE, just MAYBE, the sea breeze will kick up a storm hither and thither locally. A...
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