Another major storm for the Northeast

By: sullivanweather , 12:35 PM GMT on November 04, 2012

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Current watches, warnings and advisories.


Eastern US current watches/warnings
Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.

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East Coast IR satellite image.


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Synopsis

Highly meridional flow pattern over the North Atlantic will have huge implications on the sensible weather here in the Northeast for the upcoming week. Broad cyclonic flow will round out the weekend as one last disturbance rounds the upper level remnants of Sandy delivering a reinforcing shot of colder air, likely the coldest of the season for most Northeast locales to start the new week. High pressure briefly moves through the region on Tuesday yielding a clear but rather chilly day before the next major system sets a course for the region. Two disturbances in the northern branch of the jet will phase off the coast resulting in a rather intense early-season nor'easter. Due to the recent passage of Sandy and the compromised shoreline protections against surge, the coastal flooding threat will be greatly enhanced. Due to the expected intensity of the storm working in tandem with a moderately-strong surface high pressure over Quebec, high winds will once again be a concern. Additionally, indications are of a widespread accumulating snowfall across many locations across the western interior with heavy rain along the coast and for the eastern interior. This storm will slowly lift northeast off the coast on Thursday and Friday, with a brisk northwest wind in its wake and a developing confluent flow aloft as the pattern remains blocked downstream. Far in the extended, a strong low pressure system should develop over the High Plains over the weekend and head northeast into Canada, well northwest of the region. This will spread an increasingly mild airmass into the Northeast, save perhaps one weak backdoor front, from next weekend into the beginning of the following week, however, the cold front spawned from the Plains storm will head east and become increasingly anafrontal. This may spell a rain to snow scenario for locations inland of the coast and yet another 1"+ rainfall event along the coast.


Short-term

A weak shortwave is working across the Northeast this morning providing for some flurries across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, aided slightly by some lake enhancement. Areas southeast of Syracuse may see a dusting by morning. Otherwise most Northeasterners will wake up to mostly clear skies and a continued chilly northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will start the day mainly in the 30's across the interior with low 40's along the coast. Bright sunshine along the coastal plain will have little warming effect today with weak cold air advection and a stiffening northwest breeze. Expect highs to reach close to 50 in these locales. highs in the 40's will be common across the bulk of the interior as afternoon skies become partly cloudy. Some of the higher elevation areas of the North Country will be held in the 30's. Skies will clear toward evening, now in the four-O'clock hour, winds will die down and temperatures will swiftly drop with most coastal locales set for their coldest night of the season. Much of the interior will drop into the 20's tonight with some upper teens across the higher elevations. Along the coastal plain temperatures will drop to around freezing while the heart of the urban areas fall to the mid to upper 30's.

There'll be frost on the pumpkin as the sun rises on Monday, a chilly precursor for what's to come later in the week. Sunny skies will greet most of the communities getting back to normal life on Monday, as it will be the first day of school/work since October 26th for many of the moderately affected. Once again, despite the bright sunshine, the air will have a definite chill and temperatures will only climb into the 40's for much of the Northeast, with 30's across the higher terrain. A tightly wound mid/upper-level low pressure will drop south out into Quebec as the day progresses with its associated cold pool of air aloft settling over the Northeast region. This feature will provide some mid/high clouds across the North Country and maybe a stray flurry or two but nothing more. Winds will once again be out of the northwest around 10-15mph.


Mid-term

High pressure quickly builds over the region Monday night, yielding clear skies and calm winds. 850mb temps progged to range from -4°C to -12°C south to north. This should easily be the coldest night yet this season for most locations across the Northeast. Teens in the higher elevations with low to mid 20's across the interior; upper 20's to around 30 along the coastal plain. Even the urban centers may approach the freezing mark by daybreak Tuesday morning. For many still without power the freezing temperatures will be of particular concern. Also of note, these temperatures will end the growing season in areas yet to receive a killing freeze.

With high pressure cresting over the region on Tuesday morning sunny skies are once again expected to start the day. Temperatures will be quite similar to those of Monday, though with less wind, so the chilliness won't have the same bite. Keep in mind these are the coldest temperatures many of us will have seen since before the March heat wave so the cold is probably going to take some getting used to. Some high clouds will begin to spill north ahead of the next big weather-maker during the late afternoon hours across southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. These high clouds will continue to spread north and thicken Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as low pressure gathers strength off the Carolina coast. From this point forward model guidance diverges on strength of low pressure, timing, track, etc.; as if there ever wasn't a fickle nor'easter.


Long-term

The primary disturbance which will spawn the upcoming nor'easter is currently spinning down into the Heartland of the country, meanwhile, the secondary disturbance which will provide the final piece of energy to really make this nor'easter explode still resides along the northern coast of British Columbia. Though barely represented in surface pressure fields, at mid/upper levels the primary disturbance is a rather vigorous one, with a stripe of 40-60dm 12-hour 500mb height falls along the track of the low across the central Plains. The disturbance will continue to round the base of the trough Monday into Tuesday, reaching the warm Gulf Stream waters offshore the Georgia Coast Tuesday afternoon. As the upper level feature meets those very warm waters expect an explosion of strong convection along an offshore coastal front and the rapid development of surface low pressure just east of Savannah which will then track northeast. Global models usually underestimate the strength of such convective blowups when such vigorous systems reach the coast, typically due to their poor resolution. As an effect there's less downstream ridging represented is these models, often presenting track solutions further to the east than what usually ends up occurring. This is a trend we have seen in model guidance over the last several runs as there's been a slight eastward shift in storm track in a plurality of the global models. However, the higher resolution ECMWF and UKMET models continue to show a track closer to the coast and it seems prudent to primarily follow the guidance of these two models with some adjustments, of course.

Tuesday night low pressure deepens rapidly off the Southeast coast, going from roughly 1010mb at 5pm Tuesday to 990mb by 5am Wednesday. By Wednesday morning the secondary piece of energy will dip down the backside of the longwave trough, which will begin taking on a negative tilt, furthering the intensification process of the nor'easter and dropping the pressure of the surface low to about 980mb as it moves 50-75 miles offshore the Delmarva Peninsula and occludes Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Far to the north, a 1035mb area of high pressure centered of Labrador will yield little ground, making for a tightening the pressure gradient over the Northeast region of the country resulting in yet another strong wind event; more on that to come. As it appears currently, 980mb will be the peak intensity of the low pressure as it wraps up off Cape May early Thursday. Thereafter, low pressure will start to pull east-northeast away from the coast and weaken through Friday. On to the particulars...

Clouds will continue spreading north Wednesday, lowering and thickening as the day progresses. Due to the slower track of the storm it now appears precipitation won't reach the region until mid-morning at the earliest for coastal sections of southern New Jersey, with a more likely start time closer to the noon hour. The shield of precipitation will steadily advance northwestward, reaching Philadelphia by mid-afternoon and New York City by dusk. Along the northern and western fringes of the precipitation shield, a wintry mix or just plain snow will commence due to dynamic cooling of the column. Given the current expected track of the low pressure and placement of the colder air, areas just northwest of I-95 from Washington to Philadelphia will be the first to changeover early Wednesday evening. Further to the north and west, precipitation will begin Wednesday evening in the form of snow from Harrisburg to Scranton to Springfield, Massachusetts. The snow will be heavy at times and quite wet, accumulating 1-2"/3hr, slightly more at higher elevations. As the onshore flow brings milder air in from the east across southern New England and as far west as the Hudson Valley, expect a changeover to rain, or even freezing rain at higher elevation areas such as the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. While areas north of the low change to rain, locations west of the low will be changing to snow as colder air circulates into the backside of the low pressure. This means Washington and maybe even areas as far south as Richmond may very well see their first accumulating snowfalls of the season.


By midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning the storm will really be cranking, with a large arc of snow, possibly reaching the Tidewater of Virginia all the way to the coast of southern Maine, falling locally heavy at times combined with the stiff northeasterly wind will make for near-blizzard conditions. Along the coastal plain from New Jersey to southern New England a windswept heavy rain will make for a miserable night, especially for those still without power when the storm arrives. This rain will taper to scattered showers and drizzle by Thursday morning. The precipitation shield will have a sharp cutoff along the northwest flank of the storm. Areas west of a line extending from the Laurel Highlands to the western Finger Lakes region to the Tug Hill Plateau will see little, if any, precipitation and if any does fall it will likely do so as rain with marginal boundary layer temperatures and very light precipitation rates. Snow will continue to spread north into northern New York and northern New England the remainder of the overnight hours into Thursday morning. As the best forcing slowly abates and moves north into Canada snowfall rates will come down and snow will end as a period of light rain or drizzle from eastern Virginia northward to central New York. Light to occasionally moderate snow will persist in northwestern Maine, northern New Hampshire and northern Vermont through the rest of Thursday afternoon before tapering to snow showers Thursday night over the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Rainfall amounts along the coast will range from three-quarters of an inch to two inches. Enough to cause ponding of water on roads and parking lots but most of this will be nuisance flooding and not anything particularly worrisome. Inland areas which receive snowfall the forecast is a bit more tricky as precipitation rate and elevation will be key with these early-season event. Areas best slated to see accumulations of six inches or more are the ridgetops of central Virginia north to central/eastern Pennsylvania, the Poconos, the Catskills and the higher terrain of the North Country. Lowland areas under the deformation axis may also see a solid 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of up to six inches; this includes the metro areas of Washington and Richmond, as well as several mid-sized cities across the interior including Harrisburg, Scranton and Binghamton.

Wind and surge will play a significant role with this nor'easter, despite being just your basic package nor'easter, the reason being Sandy which roared ashore last week. Trees have been weakened and shorelines have been decimated in the wake of Sandy, leaving many vulnerabilities. Coastal communities have had precious dune protections washed away and seawalls have been breached at various points along the Jersey Shore and Long Island. Although this upcoming nor'easter is expected to bring only a 1.5-3' surge along the coast, with the aforementioned protections gone this will allow for another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding. One saving grace with the storm is that it will be moving away from the coast, as opposed to coming ashore. This will mean a switch in wind direction midway through the storm to an angle more oblique to the coastline. This will spare many areas a second high tide of direct onshore winds. These winds will begin to pick up early morning on Wednesday out of the east-northeast at 20-30mph along the coast (10-20mph inland), then become northeasterly and increase to 25-40mph with gusts to 55mph (15-30mph with gusts to 40mph inland) by afternoon. These winds continue into Wednesday night and take on a more northerly component before slackening by Thursday morning as low pressure stops intensifying and pulls away from the coast. With winds of these speeds (especially in areas which receive snowfall) additional power outages are likely. Also of note, with winds expected to be of such strength utility crews will likely be pulled off their jobs as the storm passes through. So in areas still without power when the storm hits this may add another 24-36 hour delay to restoration times.


Wind
Expected wind speeds for upcoming nor'easter

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Expected snowfall for upcoming nor'easter




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Radar: Northeast Region Loop

NE radar
Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground.

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Northeast SST's
Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA. (unavailable until NWS Eastern Region communications blackout is resolved)


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98. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:37 PM GMT on November 18, 2012
sullivanweather has created a new entry.
97. listenerVT
4:48 AM GMT on November 14, 2012
Quoting cchamp6:
Hey Listener. Who is your relative in Milton Ct? Im in the Bantam section of Litchfield Milton is another section of Litchfield. ITs a small town pretty much know everybody there.


Her name is Diane, with a hyphenated last name, and she's a teacher. Sound familiar?

Wait, wait! Her married last name comes after the one I mentioned above and begins with an "F"...if that helps any!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
96. cchamp6
11:13 PM GMT on November 13, 2012
Hey Listener. Who is your relative in Milton Ct? Im in the Bantam section of Litchfield Milton is another section of Litchfield. ITs a small town pretty much know everybody there.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1641
95. TheShovler3
3:36 PM GMT on November 13, 2012
Hit 72 on Sunday here and 69 yesterday. Was still in the 60's all the way up until almost midnight lastnight. Woke up at 6 to 42 and drizzle then it poured! Was pretty windy lastnight. We spent the night in our barn shooting darts and the wind was howling through the boards.

Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
94. listenerVT
10:38 PM GMT on November 12, 2012
As of 1 PM a new record high temperature of 70 degrees was set at
Burlington VT today. This breaks the old record of 66 set in 1982.

As of 1 PM a new record high temperature of 69 degrees was set at
Montpelier VT today. This breaks the old record of 62 set in 1982,
1974 and 1970.

As of 1 PM a new record high temperature of 75 degrees was set at
Massena NY today. This breaks the old record of 70 set in 1982.

It's still 65F here!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
93. listenerVT
4:26 AM GMT on November 12, 2012
Thanks for that, Sully.
I'm thinking of so many veterans in my family, especially my sister who served as an Air Force RN in Kuwait. It took her some years to get through the nightmares that followed all she saw and experienced there. Last month she got married and is very happy. I love it when that happens!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
92. sullivanweather
3:14 PM GMT on November 11, 2012
A huge thank you and a happy Veterans Day to all our heroes!!

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
91. listenerVT
2:23 PM GMT on November 11, 2012
It's gorgeous here and we have two days off to enjoy it!! We're going to get the yard work completed, get lights onto the outdoor Christmas tree, and put away the hose for Winter. We're also going for a walk and to hear a concert. Sweet!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
90. listenerVT
2:21 PM GMT on November 11, 2012
Did everyone see this welcome article about the hero weatherman from Mount Holly NJ, Gary Szatkowski? The power of an accurate forecast, and a well placed personal plea:
http://mobile.nj.com/advnj/pm_31080/contentdetail .htm?contentguid=ldBw4HY8
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
89. TheShovler3
11:58 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
Hope everyone gets a chance to enjoy the warm up! I'm catching up on my fall clean up! But tomorrow I'm just going to take a drive and relax maybe go hiking somewhere.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
88. listenerVT
6:48 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting NEwxguy:
Don't know if anyone saw this from Dr. Masters blog,he threw this in the blog last nigh.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters

Admittedly a long way off,it would be simply amazing if this ever occurred.I've lived in Mass. all my life and don't remember anything like the two storms we have experienced,if "big if" another occurence like Dr. Masters mentioned did occur,it would be incredible weather history.
We'll watch this in a couple of weeks.


Thank-you for mentioning it, as I missed it.

I have a cousin in Milton, CT who has had two really rough goes of it. I hope and pray folks get to just be thankful on Thanksgiving, not huddled in fear or evacuating while the meal goes bad in their powerless fridge. =Sigh=
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5483
87. NEwxguy
4:25 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
I agree,its just way out to even worry about it,but IF it should happen,we just have to deal with it.This is weather,the good,the bad and the ugly.I'm a weather nut also,but after what the northeast has suffered,we don't need this kind of occurrence at this point in time.
We shall see in the coming weeks.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15621
86. TheShovler3
3:14 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
the weather watcher in me wants to see it happen, but i don't think the northeast could possibly deal with it. There will be no coastline left! but we will see how it plays out and all we can do is deal with it if it comes.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
85. NEwxguy
2:31 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
Don't know if anyone saw this from Dr. Masters blog,he threw this in the blog last nigh.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters

Admittedly a long way off,it would be simply amazing if this ever occurred.I've lived in Mass. all my life and don't remember anything like the two storms we have experienced,if "big if" another occurence like Dr. Masters mentioned did occur,it would be incredible weather history.
We'll watch this in a couple of weeks.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15621
84. TheShovler3
2:25 PM GMT on November 08, 2012
4" of snow and gusts to 30-37 peak lost power for 5 hours all in all ill take it for November 6th
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
83. crowe1
10:43 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
40mi NW of Albany and no precip at all, winds aren't too bad, ENE10-15G25.
Congratulations to those who got some snow:)
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 15 Comments: 921
82. HeavySnow
10:26 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
I did see sleet and snow but only in shower form. It's a start.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
81. originalLT
1:28 AM GMT on November 08, 2012
Still snowing at 8:27pm here in Stamford CT. Temp. 32F Baro now falling again at, 29.79"--Had been stuck at 29.83" for 3 hours. Expect to stop snowing in about an hour or two as a dry area pivots in from the East. We have about 3" so far.
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80. TheShovler3
11:48 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
2.5" so far and coming down heavily!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
79. goofyrider
8:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Rain has switched over to heavy :-) snow. It has begun to stick to grass and landscape.  One member has arrived with an < inch of snow on rear of car.  Roads beginning to get slippery.   
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2732
78. TheShovler3
8:07 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
8" of heavy wet snow sure will do a number on these trees!!!! Thanks for the update, just started here around 3pm
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
77. sullivanweather
7:59 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Updated the snowmap
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
76. ICanHazSnoDay
7:40 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
I'm in Schenectady, NY -- NWS Albany appears to be relying on what they see out their own window. It's cloudy and threatening here, a bit breezy, but no precip. of any kind.
Member Since: December 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
75. cchamp6
7:15 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Checking from the plow truck. Somebody should wake up NWS Albany. It's like a blizzard out here.
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74. TheShovler3
4:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Finally they issued one! They always wait so long!
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
73. ICanHazSnoDay
3:02 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Shovler,

I'm north of Albany county, and I think the berkshires will shield much of the area north of Albany kind of how they did with Sandy. I would be surprised if areas like the upslope berkshires, columbia/greene counties, and pretty much everybody just south & west of Albany didn't see some measurable snowfall. I think the winds are under-done in our entire area.
Member Since: December 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
72. TheShovler3
2:26 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
I hear ya, Weather Channel is calling for 3-7" Obviously i'd love the 7" but i'm not too excited because i know it wont stick around that long. I'm worried about all the trees that sustained 2 days of 40-50 mph winds with no weight on them. Add a couple pounds per branch of weight and throw the winds at them and i don't think these trees can take it.
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
71. sullivanweather
1:10 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Shovler,

I think Albany thinks the best forcing won't make it up into their region, thus lowering snowfall rates and allowing for melting and all the issues very early season snow has at accumulating. That and QPF is marginal given expected low snow:water ratios. I think they should have their southerntier counties in an advisory with a nod to the wind threat.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
70. sullivanweather
1:04 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting HeavySnow:
DC snows Sully?


You might see some flakes but it looks like this one is gonna be about 25 miles east of you. =(
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
69. TheShovler3
12:36 PM GMT on November 07, 2012
Is there a reason Albany won't issue any watches ???
Member Since: December 9, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2579
68. HeavySnow
11:58 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
DC snows Sully?
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
67. sullivanweather
8:47 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Warnings issued...

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-072200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA
340 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME STEADIER LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS
MORE HEAVILY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE
FORM OF SNOW...AND THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS MORE HEAVILY AND CHANGES TO
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ON COLDER SURFACES IS EXPECTED. DURING THE
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOWFALL...SECONDARY ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. MAIN ARTERIES MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
SLICK SPOTS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
66. never2much
8:36 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:


It's certainly possible.
The ground is warm but the sun angle is quite low and the deformation band looks particularly intense. When it snows hard enough you can really throw some factors out the window and the models, well, the NAM at least, shows snowfall rates at a high enough level for long enough to give Philadelphia warning level snows.


Thanks! I'll update on what goes on tomorrow. I want to be excited about the snow considering last years winter but its very difficult considering the additional impact that the coastal areas will face.
Member Since: December 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
65. sullivanweather
8:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Again, should any of these newer/hi-resolution models verify there's going to be near-blizzard to blizzard conditions within that heavy snow band, with some areas, it appears, to get a foot of snow. Some of these areas STILL have no power from Sandy.

Plus with the storm now expected to wrap up and loop just off the New York Bight storm surge for the high tide just after midnight early Thursday morning is going to be much higher than anyone predicted. Even my blog post above tremendously underestimates this threat. A surge of what's expected now given the virtually non-existent shoreline protections there's going to be another major coastal flooding event. I hope with all the election hoopla and the forecast at bedtime tonight looking better people haven't become complacent to this particular storm.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
64. sullivanweather
8:21 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting never2much:
18z run looked nearly the same. Do you think Philadelphia really get a major snow?


It's certainly possible.
The ground is warm but the sun angle is quite low and the deformation band looks particularly intense. When it snows hard enough you can really throw some factors out the window and the models, well, the NAM at least, shows snowfall rates at a high enough level for long enough to give Philadelphia warning level snows.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
63. sullivanweather
8:18 AM GMT on November 07, 2012

HPC 4" probability


HPC 8" probability

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
62. never2much
8:14 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
18z run looked nearly the same. Do you think Philadelphia really get a major snow?
Member Since: December 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
61. 1900hurricane
8:13 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Noticed the 06Z NAM was running and decided to check it out for a moment. Yikes!



Ok, going to sleep now for real. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
60. sullivanweather
8:06 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
New NAM is just ridiculous...

Photobucket
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
59. 1900hurricane
8:05 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Well, we won't have to wait too long to find out! I'm out for the night. Thanks for the good discussion.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
58. sullivanweather
8:01 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
I'm thinking it won't be much because in about 24 hours cold air advection will stamp out the brief warm-seclusion. However, all that cold air advection will make for much more efficient momentum transfer for those higher winds aloft (~60kts@925mb)
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
57. 1900hurricane
7:58 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
06Z surface analysis is out, showing a 996 mb strengthening storm:

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
56. 1900hurricane
7:54 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:
1900,

It looks pretty close to reality...

Photobucket

Looks that way to me too.

The storm looks like it has less than 24 hours to deepen before the upper low over Virginia catches the surface low and ends the baroclinic strengthening. After that though, there is a chance that things could get a bit interesting, depending on how much energy the seclusion manages to extract from warm-core processes. That seems to be what is causing some of these strange solutions >24 hours out.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
55. sullivanweather
7:49 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
I'm convinced, this is going to be a severe nor'easter. In the NYC area I think it'll rival the December 1992 nor'easter in severity. With that said, I'm thinking someone out there is going to get quite an impressive snow total.

Look out, Mt.Pocono, PA and High Point, NJ. Also, some of the models are hinting at enhanced totals from Philadelphia into central New Jersey. That would be a historic dump of snow for early November in those places...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
54. sullivanweather
7:45 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
1900,

It looks pretty close to reality...

Photobucket
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
53. sullivanweather
7:43 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Listener,

I think my snowmap looks good up in your area.

If I find the time in the morning (probably likely since I'm going to be watching this storm develop) I'll be issuing a new blog with some greater detail and new maps. This is going to be a bad bad storm and everyone went to bed tonight thinking, the forecast has gotten better. I'm in the camp thinking it got worse...
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
52. 1900hurricane
7:39 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
If the high res models are to be believed, we should be about here right now:





Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
51. sullivanweather
7:37 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
HA! Good catch, Listener!

I actually meant 850mb winds...lol
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
50. 1900hurricane
7:37 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
The surface low is probably north of this buoy, but the pressure here continues to drop, a sign of a strengthen system.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
49. sullivanweather
7:36 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
These satellite images really tell the story, The JSL channel is showing strong convection near the surface low, several hundred miles northeast and about 600-700 miles southeast of the low releasing lots of latent heat and likely building downstream heights.



The channel 4 satellite imagery shows a picturesque baroclinic leaf developing ahead of the low ad spreading out in all directions. Very indicative of the strong divergence over and just east of this developing low, which is in the process of bombing out right now. I would not at all be surprised to see the hi-res (curl back tracks) model solutions verify.

Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
48. listenerVT
7:32 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Currently 18F here.

Sully, if the storm track has shifted to the west again, doesn't that increase my chances for snow?




Going to sleep happy tonight.
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Thomas is an avid weather enthusiast, landscaper and organic gardener. This blog is dedicated to Northeast and tropical weather forecasting. Enjoy!

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