Caribbean Weather Outlook

By: nigel20 , 3:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2012

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Caribbean Weather Outlook

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)


Wind Shear


Surface Winds


Wave Height


Global SST Anomaly


Global SST's


48hrs Tropical Cyclone Probability


Water Vapor


Infrared Satellite


Visible Satellite


Satellite Imagery-Puerto Rico




Surface Analysis


Tropical Atlantic


Cayman Islands Radar


Belize Radar


Puerto Rico Radar



Cuban Radars


Venezuelan Radar


NE Dominican Republic


Anegada Cam


South Coast of St John Cam


Barbados Cam


Grenada Cam


Westbay Cayman port


Cancun


Rincon,Puerto Rico


St Maarten


St Barts


Soufriere Volcano in the island of Monteserrat


Grand Palladium Jamaica Resort & Spa


Locations of Site Visitors


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1915. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on July 27, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL
RELOCATE NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HAZE AND PASSING CLOUDS
PREVAILED OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND.

STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
UNTIL THURSDAY...TO RESULT IN DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...DRY AIR AND TRADE WIND CAP
WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY
CONFINED EACH AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA BY THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE THE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT LOW AND THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE TUTT LOW WHICH COULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SAL MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HOLDS THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 27/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1914. Tropicsweatherpr
10:38 AM GMT on July 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS
THE REGION THOUGH PATCHES OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH. ONE SUCH PATCH IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RADAR
INDICATES SCATTERED...BUT BRIEF...SHOWERS OVER USVI. GFS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE EXITING WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOON BUT ENOUGH MIGHT LINGER
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR THE WEST AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SHOW
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS WILL PASS PR
DURING AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE DRIER AIR. BETTER MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER...
WEAKER...TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND BRUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THIS NEXT WEEK. LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY MUCH OF THE TIME
ALSO WILL BE MORE SAHARAN AIR...MOST EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 850 MB AND BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN NORMAL
WINDS NEAR THAT LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT ACRS PR/USVI THRU WEEKEND XCPT OUTSIDE CHC
BRF MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS IN SHRA/TSRA BOTH AFT FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN
PR. WIND BLW FL100 E 12-21 KT BCMG SE AT TIMES TONITE THEN INCR
16-28 KT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR 25N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLUMBIAN
COAST AND A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASSING BY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AND IT
MIGHT REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 80 / 30 10 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1913. Tropicsweatherpr
10:21 AM GMT on July 24, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TUTT LOW IS TO THEN CUT
OFF AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
TUESDAY... REACHING HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL THEN ERODE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH NO RAINFALL OBSERVED OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR OVER LAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
AND SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS AREAS OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
SURGE SHOULD TRANSPORT FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAZY...HOWEVER THE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE P6SM. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TO AFFECT TJBQ...CLEARING AFTER SUNSET.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 24/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 20

&&
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1912. Tropicsweatherpr
10:24 AM GMT on July 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKEN THRU SATURDAY. RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY EVENING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES...
WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY A FEW LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW -SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N AND S OF PR AN EN
ROUTE BTW ERN AND U.S.V.I. SCT LYS 020...050...AND SCT-BKN250 MAINLY
SE OF PR AND OVR VIRGIN ISLANDS. SE WNDS BLO FL200 BCMG SSW ABV UP
TO FL400. SFC WND LGT AND VRB TO CALM BCMG FM E AST 10 -15 KTS AFT
23/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 81 90 79 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1911. Tropicsweatherpr
10:14 AM GMT on July 22, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST WED JUL 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES INCREASING STEADY FROM
AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING TO MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...DECREASING BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WELL BELOW 2.O INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS PR/USVI TERMINALS THRU WED MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI TERMINAL AS
PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING. FALSE CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...LOCALLY INDUCED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. THE 22/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED LOW LEVEL E TO ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CALM TO SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY...WITH WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...UP TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE...AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 82 90 79 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1910. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on July 21, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN DRY MID
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING CROSSING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER PRODUCT...ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES WHICH
WAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE OVERALL CONVECTION HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS ALREADY MIXED IN AND ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED AREAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTEDON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER... NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 21/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NEAR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND
AND WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1909. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on July 21, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN DRY MID
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING CROSSING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER PRODUCT...ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES WHICH
WAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE OVERALL CONVECTION HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS ALREADY MIXED IN AND ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED AREAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTEDON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER... NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 21/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NEAR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND
AND WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 40 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1908. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on July 20, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT TODAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LIMITED
AREAS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 55 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY TUESDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO FAR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...BUT SO FAR CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE HAS
BEEN LIMITED AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOMINANT SAHARAN AIR
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL AID IN ENHANCING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS BY LATE THURSDAY AND THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS DRIER SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TJSJ...TISX...TIST AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FLYING
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 20/14Z. AFTER 20/16Z SHRA O EVEN TSRA WILL
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AND
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME AREAS AFTER 20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE....OVERALL SEAS WERE 3 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS THAN 5 FEET TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSSTHE REGIONAL WATERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 80 / 20 50 50 40
STT 90 80 89 80 / 20 50 50 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1907. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on July 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU LATE
MONDAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SINK FARTHER
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA MAINTAINING TROUGH PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ERODES SLOWLY THRU MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AS PASSING SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AT LEAST THRU LATE MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BRIEF ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE WAVE ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS CREATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THE DAY AND TRIGGERING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR.


&&

.AVIATION...QUITE A FEW SHRA SHOWING ON RADAR AND IMPLIED BY
SATELLITE FM PR EWD THRU LEEWARDS. BUT VRY FEW SHRA ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LWR THAN VFR CONDS AND THOSE WL BE BRF...WL AMD IF NEEDED.
WIND MON E-ESE 12-21 KT THRU MON.


&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING BY MID WEEK DUE TO WIND SURGE BEHIND
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 4 FEET. HOWEVER...LOCAL
SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 89 78 89 79 / 40 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1906. Tropicsweatherpr
11:22 AM GMT on July 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS UPPER
RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUILDS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT WILL PASS
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK WEST MOVING INDUCED SURFACE TROF
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR TODAY. HOWEVER...DRY MID
LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIMITED
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY IN
THE FCST PERIOD. FROM TUE-THU...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN DUST LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND APPARENTLY
STILL GIVING SENSORS AT TIST/TISX FALSE CIGS...BELIEVE CONDS TO
IMPRV WI DAYLIGHT. VFR CONT ALL TAF SITES THO SHRA WL PASS MAINLY
THRU ATLANTIC WATERS TDY AND PSBL SHRA/TSRA SW PR IN AFT. MAYBE AN
OBSCD MTN OR TWO. WINDS BLW FL150 ENE 12-20 KT BCMG E TONITE-SUN.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HIGHER SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 10 10 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1905. Tropicsweatherpr
9:55 AM GMT on July 17, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 AM AST FRI JUL 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO AREA WITH A RIDGE AT AND BELOW 700 MB
THOUGH THE SAHARAN AIR IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

VERY DRY AIR WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CHANCES OF RAINFALL. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 50W BUT MOISTURE IS TRAILING WELL BEHIND IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHERE ANOTHER WAVE IS NEAR 35W-40W.
MODELS SHOW THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HIGHLY FRAGMENTED
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS. IT WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO PREVENT THE WAVES FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER. 00Z GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN PUSHING THE WAVES
TOWARDS PR/USVI AND ITS TIMING IS NOW SIMILAR TO 12Z AND 00Z
ECWMF. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DELAY ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
UNTIL TUE WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY WAVE AT ANY LEVEL WILL
ARRIVE THAT COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES BUT VSBY P6SM...FALSE OVC CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PR BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ AND MTN
TOP OBSCD. EAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
SFC IN SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CONCERN OVER EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. IT WILL ONLY BE 2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE OR SO BUT
THERE IS ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 40 PERCENT RH BUT WINDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL VALUES. WILL ISSUE RFD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. WINDS
WILL BE TOO WEAK TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY
DOWN SOMEWHAT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS 25N-30N
TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND REMAIN WEAK WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 10 10 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1904. Tropicsweatherpr
10:01 AM GMT on July 16, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST THU JUL 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
SKIMMING BY PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
17N THIS MORNING. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LEEWARDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR OVER
THE TOP OF THE WAVE AND HELPING SUPPRESS ITS DEVELOPMENT BEYOND
ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...AT LEAST FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
QUITE STRONG...MAINLY FARTHER INTO CARIBBEAN AND AM PRETTY
CONFIDENT THIS WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THE ISLANDS AT ALL. SAHARAN
AIR IS ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE WAVE AS IT IS MOVING
FASTER THAN THE SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM SAHARAN DUST
UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON MON THOUGH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THAT NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
MOVING QUICKLY IT MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDINESS AND
SHRA ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THIS
EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THRU THU
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN PR TERMINALS AND OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR ISX/KPK THRU AT LEAST 16Z.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL KICK WINDS UP A LITTLE IN CARIBBEAN
TODAY...ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FEET FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR ST. KITTS ATTM TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH PART OF AMZ732 LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 0 10 20 10
STT 89 79 88 78 / 20 10 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1903. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on July 15, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BAND OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING OVER
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED SHOWERS TO BARELY NOTICABLE ON
RADAR. MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMMS SUGGESTS THE AIR IS NOT QUITE AS DRY
AS GFS OR NESDIS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE. DO NOT HAVE
SOUNDER DATA OR RAOBS TO CONFIRM WHICH IS MORE CORRECT BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO ADJUST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
VERY MUCH. BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IS THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR
TODAY.

LATEST AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE IN
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND REACH PEAK
VALUES OVER LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. THE SAHARAN AIR
MIGHT PREVENT MUCH RAIN AGAIN OVER EASTERN PR/USVI BUT INCREASED
SHOWERS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHWEST PR BY AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A BROADER COVERAGE FOR THE MOISTURE RELATIVE TO NAM
WHILE ECMWF IS INBETWEEN THEM. IT HAS CAUSED GFS MOS PROBABILITY
OF RAIN TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IT IS FROM NAM FOR SAN JUAN...BUT
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LOWER
CHANCES. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH BETTER MOISTURE WITHOUT SAHARAN AIR
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
EXPECTED BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM. SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 17Z...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING SHRA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG 30N. IT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BY SAT. GWW MODEL STILL INDICATES WAVES APPROACHING 7
FEET NORTHEAST OF BVI BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN TRADES NEAR LEEWARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 40 50 30
STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1902. Tropicsweatherpr
10:38 AM GMT on July 14, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...BEGINNING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
CUBE CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY WHILE A TUTT IS MOVING FROM THE
EAST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE THAT JUST PASSED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND. MEANWHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF CUBA CONTINUES WEAKENING SLOWLY...NOT
HAVING TOO MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT IN THE LOCAL AREA. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
CURRENTLY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
BROUGHT WAS MODEST AND WITHOUT A GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE
COVERAGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS MAY BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN...A RELATIVELY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...THIS ONE LOOK TO BRING DECENT MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 2
INCHES...WHICH IS STILL OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEN DRY AIR MOVES
IN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT THE LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL
AS JSJ/IST/ISX. AFT 14/17Z ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER W PR...
AFFECTING JMZ THRU 14/22Z. WINDS ESE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6
FEET AND/OR WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BE AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS AT ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI AS WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1901. Tropicsweatherpr
10:19 AM GMT on July 13, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS MOVING
WEST AS IT WEAKENS...MEANWHILE A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK. DRIER AIR WITH SOME SAHARAN DUST IS MOVING IN
TODAY...THEN DECREASING ON TUESDAY AND MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING ON TUESDAY THEN A
STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SOME HAZE IS IN STORE FOR THE
LOCAL ARE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WESTERN PR
MAY OBSERVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY...THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING...BUT STILL PRESENT UPPER TROUGH...IT
SHOULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY DRY DAY
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THIS ONE LOOK TO BRING VERY DECENT
MOISTURE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 2.2 INCHES...WHICH IS IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION...A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...CAUSING SOME INSTABILITY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES. THIS MEANS THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEN DRY
MOVES IN ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CAUSE SOME HAZE BUT VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN P6SM. WINDS WILL BE AT ABOUT 10-15KT FROM THE EAST WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ/TJBQ IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL BE UP
TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 80 86 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 82 80 82 80 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1900. Tropicsweatherpr
10:22 AM GMT on July 12, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SUN JUL 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BASED
ON U.S.G.S. SENSORS AND RADAR ESTIMATES...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER
SE PR.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE PROXIMITY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. STRONGEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS
WELL AS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE U.S.V.S AND THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING EROSION IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
A RESULT...UNDER RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON
WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDER ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND THE
NEXT WEEKEND...UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUILDING
RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING MOISTURE AND RAIN TO THE LOCAL
AREA. -SHRA LIKELY ACROSS TJSJ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJBQ THROUGH 12/12Z WHILE
VCSH IS POSSIBLE FOR TIST/TISX. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 12/15Z...WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 12/13Z THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15KTS AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WIND
SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1899. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on July 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT JUL 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MEANDERING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE WATERS AS WELL AS USVI AND THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WERE
MINIMAL. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PR AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAINING OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED UNDER RIDGE
ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND...AS RIDGE
PATTERN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 11/16Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH VCSH LIKELY ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TJSJ THROUGH
11/16Z. THEREAFTER...AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BTWN 11/18 AND 11/23Z..POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KT UNTIL 11/13Z...STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER TO 10 TO 15KT AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SCA CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 87 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 88 79 / 40 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1898. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on July 09, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...
CUBA AND HISPANOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR AND STABLE MASS AT MID LEVELS. OVERALL...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ANTICIPATED THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE HAVE MOVED OVER THE REGION SINCE
MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF USVI AND EASTERN PR
THROUGH MID MORNING. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO CONVERGE OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR. THE REST
OF THE WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH...SOME MORNING
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FOLLOWED BY
LOCALIZED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

FOR NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...HAVING LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 09/18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJPS FROM 09/18-09/22Z.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 78 / 30 20 30 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1897. Tropicsweatherpr
10:23 AM GMT on July 08, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED JUL 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL LINGER NEAR BAHAMAS/CUBA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION...MAINTAINING A DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY KEEPING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS LOW FOR
PUERTO RICO AND USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE TODAY...
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS
AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS SUSTAINING A STRONG CAP INVERSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF PR/USVI TODAY.
SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY INDUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE SHALLOW AS MID LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...HAVING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT OVER PR AND USVI.
MORE SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ AFT 08/17Z.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL KEEP CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1896. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on July 07, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MEANDER CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AFTER THE WAVE PASSES...SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR
RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR
OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. NO WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES UNDER THE DOMINANCES OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CREATING
SUBSIDENCE AIR...LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...WILL CREATE SOME FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TOMORROW...A DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL REGION AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF VERY
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR FRIDAY...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17-21Z. ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1895. Tropicsweatherpr
10:41 AM GMT on July 06, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TUEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS WERE
NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY...WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME HAZY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
ANOTHER AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST TO AFFECT REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED CHANCES OF
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...TIST/TISX AND
TJSJ THROUGH MID-MORNING...06/14Z. THEN...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVER
WEST PR BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY ARE SHOWING HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT 11 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION
LATER TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 80 / 40 10 30 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1894. Tropicsweatherpr
10:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
CUT-OFF ON THURSDAY AND DRIFT TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME DIVIDED AROUND 45 WEST LONGITUDE BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MID LATITUDE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AND THE STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ABATE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT FORMED WERE VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...EVEN OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OWING TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE INVERSION. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL SEE A WEAK MOISTURE INTRUSION VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITIES AS THE SAHARAN DUST IS TEMPORARILY
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH.

PRESENTLY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH A WEAK
TROUGH AHEAD OF IT IS NOT CARRYING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SO EXPECT ONLY A LIMITED INCREASE IN THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION...AND THAT ONLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL THAN THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS. FROM MID WEEK...ON THE AXIS OF THE NEW TUTT FORMING TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WITH UNFAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE...OR AT LEAST A LACK OF DIVERGENCE...THUS HELD OVER
THE AREAIN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HELD TO A
MINIMUM FOR MOST THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES JUST ENOUGH TO YIELD A SLIGHT BUMP IN THE
POPS...BUT WILL NOT YIELD MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE OCCURS
A WEEK FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY AS THE WIND SURGE FROM THE LAST TROPICAL WAVE ABATES
AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DIVIDED AND WEAKENS.
WINDS TEND TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 06/02Z. SOME HAZE IS PRESENT BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW MAY MANAGE TO
FORM IN WRN PR AFT 05/17Z TODAY. WINDS ALF WILL DIMINISH FROM ESE
20 TO 40 KNOTS TO GENERALLY ENE 10 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT. STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR FL070. SHRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 05/17Z THROUGH
06/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL ALL BE DOWN BY
MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS BETWEEN 3 AND 15 KFT TODAY...SUNDAY. LESS
CLOUDINESS...BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SITUATION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 35
TO 45 PERCENT AND WINDS EXCEED 18 MPH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. WILL RE-ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR 1100-1700
AST TODAY. MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 80 / 10 40 40 30
STT 89 79 89 77 / 10 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1893. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on July 03, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT OVER TO FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
NORTH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE DIVIDED IN HALF NEAR 45 WEST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF MAINE. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STREAMED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS CAROLINA.
AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT OWING TO SIZE AND SPEED AT WHICH THEY WERE
MOVING...ABOUT 28 KNOTS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WAS NO CONSISTENCY IN WHERE THE
MODELS PLACED THE BEST PRECIPITATION OR HOW MUCH CHANCE WAS TO
OCCUR. SO BEST ESTIMATE WILL BE SCATTERED POPS FROM EL YUNQUE TO
WESTERN PUERTO RICO THOUGH AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. MAIN PROBLEM WITH GENERATING
SHOWERS ARE THE DRY MID LEVELS THAT PERSIST...THE STRONG
WINDS...UP TO 31 KNOTS...IN AND NEAR A STRONG INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES AND SO WILL
CONSIDER EVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO RATHER GENEROUS AND
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT
CHANCES THERE AND ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE RIDING
ON THE FRESH TRADE WINDS RIDES BY. DRYING BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.

CURRENTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES LITTLE NEXT WEEK AND HENCE
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN...EVEN DURING THE WAVE ON TUESDAY...LESS
THAN USUAL. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE AREA. CURRENT
MODELS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HRS. FOLLOWED BY
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AT TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 03/18Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
+SHRA/SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR SOME OF THEM CAN REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
EASTERN TIP OF AMZ715 AND AMZ725 SOUTH OF ANEGADA ISLAND SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. UNTIL THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OR WILL GO UP IN ALL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1892. Tropicsweatherpr
10:42 AM GMT on June 30, 2015
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE REGION. A TROPICAL ENTERING TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DETECTED AND AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (TUTT) NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE...THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER. THIS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY...WHEN
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION. NOT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVEN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OFFSHORE AND THRU USVI/LEEWARDS BUT
DECR THIS MRNG. VFR XCP MVFR IN SOME OF THE SHRA. SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS
AFT OVR PR/USVI WI MVFR PSBL TJMZ. VFR TONITE XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA E
AND S PR TO USVI...AND TSRA PSBL ON S OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND BLW
FL100 E 15-25 KT BCMG ESE TDY CONT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 40 40 40 20
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1891. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:21 AM GMT on June 24, 2013
nigel20 has created a new entry.
1890. nigel20
6:45 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Cuba Weather

2013-06-23 13:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY.
Mostly clear sky with plenty of sunshine. Very hot.

2013-06-23 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE.

It will be a another very warm day with mostly sunny sky throughout Cuba. In the afternoon, the clouds will develop over the interior and southern areas bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms that will not be significant in the rest of the territory.

The highs will remain around 33 C (91 C) while overnight it will be between 24-27 C (75-81 F).
There will be some waves on the eastern coasts and calm sea in the rest of the country.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1889. nigel20
6:36 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

ISSUED AT: 10:13AM
Date:Sunday 23rd of June 2013

Meteorologist: Sarah Sammy

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
:
Trinidad & Tobago:
Increased cloudiness accompanied by light to
moderate showers is expected in a few areas
interrupting otherwise predominantly hazy and
hot, yet breezy daytime conditions. Tonight is
expected to be initially clear yet hazy with a
light breeze, but cloudiness is expected to
increase towards midnight.

The Remainder of the Lesser Antilles:
Generally hot, sunny, breezy and hazy daytime
conditions are expected to transition into cool
and hazy nighttime conditions with a light breeze
expected at times.

NB: Relatively high wind speeds being
experienced currently may result in choppy sea
conditions being experienced at times.

SEAS: Normal to Moderate
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Less than 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius

FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 33 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:55PM
Date:Saturday 22nd of June 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 03:18am 04:31pm LOW 09:53am 09:55pm
Scarborough HIGH 02:55am 04:01pm LOW 09:37am 09:40pm
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1888. nigel20
6:30 PM GMT on June 23, 2013
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW N
OF E CUBA TO S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N84W COVERING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W ALONG 11N81W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA S OF 11N
W OF 81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S TO SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN A 90 NM OF LINE
FROM PUERTO RICO ALONG 16N74W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU.

HISPANIOLA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC IS
DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND AND IS GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LOW N OF E CUBA REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH MON BEFORE PULLING
NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON MON AND TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON
LATE WED AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN WED INCREASING SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1887. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on June 23, 2013
Good morning. Good weather is expected in PR today with only a few showers. Two Tropical Waves will increase the showers this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SUN JUN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL RELOCATE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK. SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS
CARRIED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AST. A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS BRINGING LAYERS
OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR DATA
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS WET
TRADE WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...A PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING BY A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER 18Z... AND
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
START BECOMING WETTER TOMORROW THROUGH MID-WEEK AS TWO TROPICAL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ON WEDNESDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME VCSH EXPECTED ON AND OFF DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS AL TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-6 FEET WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 77 / 60 40 60 30
STT 87 80 87 80 / 50 40 60 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1886. nigel20
5:47 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 12:00 PM on Saturday, June 22, 2013

A temporary improvement in conditions is expected during the next 24 hours as a ridge of high pressure is now the dominant feature. This will be followed by the approach of a westward moving tropical wave by tomorrow afternoon through early Monday. Most of the significant shower activity associated with this wave is expected across the extreme southern section of the island chain.

Meanwhile, another westward moving tropical wave located in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to approach the area by Tuesday.

Persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise caution.

Moderate sea conditions are expected during the next 24 hours with swells peaking near 7.0 feet.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1885. nigel20
5:41 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
Belize National Meteorological Service

Date:

SATURDAY 22ND JUNE 2013

Time:

5:00 AM

General Situation:

MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA...

24hr Forecast:

SUNNY WITH SOME CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

Winds:

EAST 10-20 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.

Sea State:

MODERATE....BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES. ***SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IN EFFECT***

Outlook:

THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING:PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1884. nigel20
5:41 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
Yes, 62901 and thanks for visiting...Good afternoon friends

Tropical Weather Discussion

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS LARGELY INFLUENCE BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N73W. THE TROUGH AXIS
DIPS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77W
WITH ANOTHER WEAKER AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W
TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREAS WITHIN THE TROUGHING ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-86W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
HOWEVER OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-
21N BETWEEN 79W-83W. OTHERWISE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND IS
PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BELIZE
NEAR 18N88W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 81W WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
FROM OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TOWARDS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE REMAINS AS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 12N E OF
72W...THAT STRETCH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N73W WITH PRIMARILY
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED EAST OF A TROUGH AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS JUST WEST OF THE ISLAND. GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATES THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LIFT
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL FAVOR BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DUE TO
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1883. 62901IL
1:52 PM GMT on June 22, 2013
nigel, you've kept this blog up for over a year.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 2593
1882. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2013
Good morning. Good weather is expected this weekend in PR with only a few showers. Two Tropical Waves will increase the showers next week.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST SAT JUN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANOLA
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HISPANOLA. THE
UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUSTAINING A DENSE CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVEL...
DOPPLER RADAR HAVE BEEN INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADE WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SINCE MIDNIGHT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PLENTY OF
LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUGGESTING THE SAME
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REFLECTS A RECONFIGURATION OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN...STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
SECOND...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN GENERAL...EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 22/17Z. VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
TJMZ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FEET
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE WINDS/SEAS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 78 / 20 40 40 40
STT 88 78 87 80 / 30 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1881. nigel20
4:51 PM GMT on June 21, 2013
Meteorological Department Curaçao

Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Saturday midday 12:00 l.t., June 22, 2013.

Issued: Friday June 21, 2013 06:00 l.t. (10:00 UTC ).

Weather:
Today through Saturday midday: Partly cloudy, during the morning hours temporarily mostly cloudy with a chance of a local shower.

Forecast high will be 33ºC and the low will be 27ºC.

Sunrise will occur at 06:12 and sunset at 19:03.

Winds:
Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).

Occasionally strong to possibly near gale in gusts; force 6 to 7 (40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).

Synopsis: A temporary increase in clouds could induce a brief local shower over parts of Curacao and Bonaire, especially during the morning hours. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern will prevail. Furthermore, the wind regime will continue to be moderate to strong during the next 24 hours.

Sea conditions: Generally moderate 3 to 7 feet waves. Locally fairly rough seas.
Significant tropical weather systems:None

Special features: None.

Outlook until Sunday morning: Generally partly cloudy

Forecaster: Figueroa
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1880. nigel20
4:46 PM GMT on June 21, 2013
Tropical Weather Discussion

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
32N67W-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN
COLOMBIA...INTO CENTRAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 9N77W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST AND 14N83W AT THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
67W AND 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF HAITI...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR
9N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W
AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.36 OF AN
INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 250 MB
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1879. nigel20
4:44 PM GMT on June 21, 2013
Barbados Weather

Lesser Antilles Forecast

This Afternoon's Forecast Valid From 1600Z Friday 2013-06-21 To 2200Z Friday 2013-06-21

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure is the dominant feature.

Wx : Fair to occasionally cloudy,hazy and breezy with some scattered showers.

Winds: E - ENE at 15 - 35 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1.5 - 2.0 metres.


Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Friday 2013-06-21 To 1000Z Saturday 2013-06-22

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature.

Wx : Fair to occasionally cloudy,hazy and breezy with some scattered showers.

Winds: E - ENE at 15 - 35 km/h.

Seas: Moderate in open water swells 1.5 - 2.0 metres.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1878. Tropicsweatherpr
10:10 AM GMT on June 21, 2013
Good morning. A nice weekend in general is expected for PR with only a few showers mainly in the afternoon hours.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST FRI JUN 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THEREFORE...HAZY SKIES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...WEST
OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SKIES OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA.
RADAR DATA SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AROUND
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. 21/00Z SOUNDING
AT TJSJ SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 5000 FEET...PLACING
A CAP ON THE INCOMING MOISTURE...BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. INDEED...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...LEAVING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN GENERAL...AN OVERALL "DRIER" AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PULSES
OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...PRODUCING HAZY SKIES AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE BY MIDWEEK WHEN THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL REGION...
INCREASING THE CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE...SCA WERE CANCELLED FOR AMZ710...
AMZ725...AMZ732...AMZ741. ALTHOUGH...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY...
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY...JUNE 21ST IS OFFICIALLY THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE 2013 SUMMER ENDS ON SEPTEMBER 21.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
STT 88 77 88 80 / 20 30 30 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1877. nigel20
4:17 PM GMT on June 20, 2013
Cayman Islands Weather Service

VALID FOR THE MORNING OF JUNE 20TH 2013
THROUGH THE MORNING OF JUNE 21ST 2013.

SYNOPSIS:

The National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical storm Barry. Further information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

THIS STORM POSES NO THREAT TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

Light to moderate easterly winds and seas is expected over the Cayman Islands for the next 24 hours due to a high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean.

THE FORECAST:

Today: Partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance of showers. Temperatures will rise to the low 90’s. Winds will be east 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be moderate with wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of showers. Temperatures will fall to the upper 70’s. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. Seas will be slight to moderate with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet.

TIDES:
Today: High 6:20 a.m. Low 1:11 p.m. High 8:02 p.m.
Tomorrow: Low 2:08 a.m. High 7:08 a.m. Low 1:57 p.m. High 8:45 p.m.

SUNSET: 7:06 p.m. Today. SUNRISE: 5:48 a.m. Tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: is for an increase in cloudiness and shower Friday night as a tropical wave moves across our area.

FORECASTER
Porter
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1876. nigel20
4:16 PM GMT on June 20, 2013
Meteorological Service of Jamaica

June 20, 2013 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across the central Caribbean, east of Jamaica.

Comment
A Tropical Wave is expected to move across the island tomorrow.

24-HOUR FORECAST
This Morning… Mainly sunny.
This Afternoon… Isolated showers over central and western parishes.
Windy across the island.
Tonight … Partly cloudy.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston...33 degrees Celsius
Montego Bay...34 degrees Celsius

3-DAY FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Fri… Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sat… Isolated morning showers over eastern parishes. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms over western parishes.
Sun… Mainly sunny morning. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Regionally… The Tropical Wave is generating cloudy conditions with embedded showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola.
At 4:00 a.m. Tropical Storm Barry was located about 45 kilometres north of Veracruz, Mexico.
cdj

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1875. nigel20
4:14 PM GMT on June 20, 2013
Good morning all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
BERMUDA-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 80W. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD
IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS
SPIRALLING AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...BETWEEN 74W AND 86W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND 8 TO
11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 115N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W
AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...TO A 23N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOWARD NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N
BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
71W ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W
AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF
THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD...REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEXT 48 HOUR
TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD...REPLACED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1874. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on June 20, 2013
Good morning. Moisture left behind by the Tropical Wave will combine with the Upper Trough to bring scattered showers today for PR and adjacent islands but better weather is expected starting on Friday and lasting thru the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS
FROM HISPANOLA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS
TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENS. LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND BY THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE
TUTT TODAY. THEREFORE...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN LESS CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT OVER HISPANOLA/SW NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THAT LIES ALONG AND BENEATH THE EASTERN FLANK OF TUTT.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL LEFT LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH SINCE MIDNIGHT OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
LITTLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO FUEL
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HRS. UNDER A LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE USVI..CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EAST AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THE REST OF THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY STABLE AIR MASS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOCAL TAF SITES AS LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
LOCAL ISLANDS. WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY SOUTHEAST 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AS A
RESULT...SCA FOR THESE MARINE ZONES WERE CANCELLED. IN CONTRAST...
CHOPPY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THEREFORE
SCA CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR AMZ710-732-741 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 88 77 / 50 20 20 20
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 20 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1873. nigel20
5:50 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Cuba Weather

2013-06-19 13:00 WEATHER ACTUAL. HAVANA CITY.

Mostly sunny with maximum temperature around 32 C. Light winds from the East.

2013-06-19 03:00 WEATHER FORECAST. NATIONWIDE.

Today we will have a dry and sunny morning with slightly overcast sky only in the westernmost part of the country. There is a slight chance of some pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms in inland and southern areas, but they will be very isolated.
The temperature will continue to be very hot, with a top between 31-34 C (88-93 F) and a minimum overnight around 23 C (66 F).

Gusty winds from the East will cause dangerous waves in the North-east part where swimming is advised with caution. In the rest of Cuba the sea will be relatively calm, with some minor surges in the south-east.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1872. nigel20
5:49 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Dominica Meteorological Service

Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles

Issued: 12:00 PM on Wednesday, June 19, 2013

A gradual reduction in cloudiness and shower activity is expected by late afternoon into tonight as a ridge of high pressure begins to re-establish itself across the island. Hazy and breezy conditions will be maintained.

Moderate to rough sea conditions are expected during the next 12 hours with swells peaking near 10.0 feet. A small craft warning remains in effect for above normal sea swells. Small craft operators and sea bathers, particularly on the east coast, should continue to exercise caution.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1871. nigel20
5:48 PM GMT on June 19, 2013
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.
SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 22N66W 10N65W TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...
BETWEEN 74W AND 86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO
9N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...AND FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...
AND TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 7N82W AND BETWEEN 81W AND 82W FROM 9N TO 10N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W
AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 18.5N INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
22N66W CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W...TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE 22N66W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N65W
AND BEYOND 32N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND
65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM
PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 19/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.13 OF AN INCH...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST PATTERN STARTS WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES WESTWARD AND ENGULFS
HISPANIOLA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 250 MB
TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1870. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on June 19, 2013
Good morning. Scattered showers will dominate the weather today in PR as a wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING
WILL RELOCATE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...
RESULTING IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 37 KT WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SPECIFICALLY AT BUOY
41052 JUST SOUTH OF ST JOHN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...REACHING A
MAXIMUM OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES BY 19/18Z. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WELL AS SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OF THE WAVE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. OVERALL...EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TIST AND TISX IN SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES BY 19/12Z AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. TJSJ 19/00Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-25 KNOTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO DROP THE SCA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 78 / 50 50 40 0
STT 87 78 88 80 / 60 40 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1869. nigel20
5:38 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Meteorological Department Curaçao

Weather Forecast for Bonaire and Curacao valid until Wednesday midday 12:00 l.t., June 19, 2013.

Issued: Tuesday June 18, 2013 11:00 l.t. (15:00 UTC ).

Weather:
Today and Wednesday: Generally partly cloudy and a chance of a few brief local showers.

Forecast high will be 33ºC and the low will be 27ºC.

Sunrise will occur at 06:12 and sunset at 19:02.

Winds:
Easterly and moderate to fresh; force 4 to 5 (20 to 39 km/hr, 11 to 21 knots).

Occasionally strong to possibly near gale in gusts; force 6 to 7 (40 to 61 km/hr, 22 to 33 knots).


Synopsis: A tropical wave located this morning over the southeastern Caribbean area moves Westwards. During the next 24 hours patches of cloudiness are expected to increase over the local area with a few passing showers, due to the approaching tropical wave.

Sea conditions: Generally moderate 3 to 7 feet waves. Locally fairly rough seas.
Significant tropical weather systems:Tropical Depression Two was located this morning over the Yucatan Peninsula while it slows down somewhat inland. The cyclone is foreseen to move on a more west northwest track over the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday. The tropical depression doesn't pose a threat to the local islands.

Special features: None.

Outlook until Thursday midday: Generally partly cloudy and a possible local shower.

Forecaster: Luciano
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1868. nigel20
5:36 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services

ISSUED AT: 10:20AM
Date:Tuesday 18th of June 2013

Meteorologist: Sarah Sammy

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:

Trinidad:
Persistent cloudiness is expected throughout the
forecast period and may be accompanied at times
by light showers and/or intermittent light rain.

Tobago and the Southern Windward Islands:
Moderate to heavy showers and/or intermittent
rain are expected to accompany cloudy to overcast
conditions. Over the Southern Windward Islands,
there is the chance that some of these showers
may become thundery.

The Remainder of the Lesser Antilles:
Mostly hot and breezy daytime conditions are
expected to transition into a clear night with a
light breezy at times.

NB: Occasionally gusty conditions are expected
over the forecast period during
showers/rain/thundershowers and may result in
choppy sea conditions being experienced at
times.

SEAS: Moderate occasionally Rough
WAVES: 2.0 to 2.5m occasionally 3.0mIN OPEN WATERS
Near 1.0m IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius

FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 32 Crown Point: 31
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:50PM
Date:Monday 17th of June 2013

Port of Spain HIGH 11.18am 11.40pm LOW 5.03am 4.57pm

Scarborough HIGH 11.12am 11.29pm LOW 5.01am 5.03pm
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1867. nigel20
5:34 PM GMT on June 18, 2013
Good afternoon all!

Tropical Weather Discussion

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT
SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 66W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE
EAST OF 70W...IN TRADEWIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N56W 22N65W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA
ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W...ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF PANAMA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N IN
COLOMBIA TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...NEAR 17.0N
89.4W 1009 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 18 MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
7 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 19N
TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18.5N TO THE
WEST OF 83W. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST
PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON
TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH
A TROUGH CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHIFTS
WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...
WITH HISPANIOLA RIGHT IN THE TROUGH.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NHC
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968
1866. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on June 18, 2013
Good morning. A Tropical Wave interacting with an upper trough will bring scattered showers to PR and adjacent islands starting on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652
1865. nigel20
8:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Belize National Meteorological Service

Date:

MONDAY 17TH JUNE 2013

Time:

12:00 PM

General Situation:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION#2 WILL CROSS BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON.

24hr Forecast:

CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SEVERAL OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. (THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE AT TIMES. THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING FOR LOW LYING AREAS.)

Winds:

NORTHEAST 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 15-25 KNOTS TONIGHT.

Sea State:

MODERATE BECOMING LOCALLY ROUGH AT TIMES **SMALL CRAFT WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE**

Outlook:

THROUGH TO WEDNESDAY NIDDAY: CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN DISTRICTS.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8968

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Humidity: 71%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 12:28 AM EST on July 28, 2015

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