bappit's WunderBlog -- Arf! Arf!

Correlation is Not Causation, but ...

Wed, 19 Jun 2013 00:18:00 GMT

Researchers have proposed methods of detecting likely causal relationships in data for pairs of correlated variables through a strictly mechanical/statistical process (machine learning). A group of these researchers are conducting a competition on www.kaggle.com, "Cause and Effect Pairs," to encourage the development of techniques and algorithms for this purpose. The basic idea is that when a likely causal connection is detected between two correlated variables, the...
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Ludicrous! ... or ... The Elephant Effect

Mon, 10 Jun 2013 23:53:00 GMT

Could a blocking pattern in northern Europe affect the motion of a supercell thunderstorm producing a tornado in Ottawa County, Kansas? Offhand I would say: no way! But would I be acting in good faith scientifically to flatly deny that such a connection could exist? For that matter, can one prove the case either way?

All of the atmosphere is interconnected. Even though we try to compartmentalize atmospheric processes into different scales, the micro, meso...
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