WunderLainey's WunderBlog

About BestForecast

Thu, 8 Mar 2012 21:48:00 GMT

What is BestForecast?BestForecast is Weather Underground’s proprietary forecasting system that uses multiple weather forecasting models, combined with our predictive algorithm, to create the most accurate forecast.Evolution/VerificationWe started verifying our old forecasting system back in 2005, which was directly from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and model output statistics (MOS) designed by Dr. Masters. We looked at two variables--highs and lows--for every...
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Typhoon Nanmadol

Fri, 26 Aug 2011 23:34:00 GMT

JTWC changed Typhoon Nanmadol's track at 8/26 2100UTC. Previously, it was following GFS more, which is taking it towards Okinawa. The latest update matches with ECMWF's track only for the first 3 days. After that, ECMWF has it making landfall near Taitung City(台東), Taiwan Monday night or Tuesday morning, then stalling in Taiwan for a couple of days before it moves into the Taiwan Strait Wednesday. On the other hand, JTWC is taking it northeastward, more like a b...
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How does Wunderground forecast precipitation?

Wed, 11 May 2011 22:56:00 GMT

When we talk about precipitation forecasting, we classify it into twocategories, PoP(Probability of Precipitation) and QPF(QuantitativePrecipitation Forecast). PoP and QPF have very little to do with eachother. A high PoP does not represent high QPF. However, high QPFsometimes relates to a high PoP.First, let's look at PoP. PoP is the probability that precipitationwill be reported at a certain location during a specified period oftime. Wunderground takes various num...
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