Weather in Puerto Rico on November

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 10:44 AM GMT on November 01, 2012

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Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST THU NOV 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS A LINE OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS LINE WILL
MOVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. A EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND
FLOW...THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GENERAL STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH ESPECIALLY
AROUND TJSJ. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...A NEW GROUP OF NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM A DISTANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WILL START ARRIVING
INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT. REFER TO MARINE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 30 10 10 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 20 10 10 30

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59. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:04 AM GMT on December 01, 2012
Tropicsweatherpr has created a new entry.
58. Tropicsweatherpr
2:47 AM GMT on December 01, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECTED THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
TO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES AND THUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO ERODE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF
ENHANCED DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AND REASONING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
57. Tropicsweatherpr
10:47 AM GMT on November 30, 2012
Good morning. Variable weather is expected this weekend for the NE Caribbean with scattered showers and cooler temperatures.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST FRI NOV 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ATLC. LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH NNE WINDS ESTABLISHING MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS SEEN ON 00Z
JSJ RAOB. THIS TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO JUST SPRINKLES OR
VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS. S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
EMERGE INTO THE WRN ATLC SAT AND BEGIN TO ERODE RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIB. AS S/W TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
SW ATLC THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAKEN THE CAP AND
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SAT AND SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
ON SUN DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BETTER/STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERTED SFC TROF.

BAROCLINIC LOW WILL START DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH NNE WINDS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH DRYING AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY WITH PW VALUES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AND K INDICES AND
H85 THETAE VALUES STAYING HIGH IN THE 30S AND MID 330`S KELVIN
RESPECTIVELY. SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE LOTS OF NOCTURNAL SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN. EXPECT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER TROUGHFINESS
AND NORTHERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENE LOW LVL WIND FLOW WILL BRING INTERVALS OF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
WILL REMAIN PSBL IN SCT-ISOLD SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 4-6 FT THROUGH MON BUT INCREASING 6-8 FT TUE
IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. IT APPEARS SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR AMZ710 MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 83 77 / 20 40 40 50
STT 80 80 81 79 / 20 50 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
56. Tropicsweatherpr
7:41 PM GMT on November 29, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU NOV 29 2012

PRC023-079-093-121-125-292200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0451.121129T1855Z-121129T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
255 PM AST THU NOV 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAJAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 600 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6715 1815 6697 1798 6698 1797 6717

$$

CASTRO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
55. Tropicsweatherpr
10:45 AM GMT on November 29, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST THU NOV 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS
BROAD TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUCED SFC TROF AND AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM NE OF PR MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH A WARM DRY AFTERNOON EXPECTED UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY OUT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY FRI BUT AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH. THINGS THEN START TO CHANGE FRI NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY SAT. AS
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA SUN AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL FORM AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL START PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MON DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. SIG
LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING WILL START TAKING PLACE MON WITH A SHARP
DECREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED MON. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK AS AREA BECOMES UNDER
STRONG UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
JET STREAK. ALSO EXPECT A SIG COOL DOWN MON NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH 29/12Z AND THEN AGAIN BETWEEN 29/18Z AND
29/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT PERHAPS UP T0 6 FT IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND
ENE WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 73 / 0 10 10 40
STT 86 76 87 76 / 0 10 10 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
54. Tropicsweatherpr
10:45 AM GMT on November 28, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST WED NOV 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGH BECOMES
LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FA DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE BANDS
AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHWRS EMBEDDED IN A
EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME. VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI TAF
SITES AND TJSJ THROUGH 28/14Z. THE AVG 0-6 KM WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY FM THE NE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
53. Tropicsweatherpr
11:32 AM GMT on November 27, 2012
Good morning. The good weather will continue for the next few days in PR/VI and adjacent islands.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE FA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FORESEEN...AS THE COMBINATION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ UNTIL 27/14Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN
FM THE NE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
52. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 AM GMT on November 26, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST MON NOV 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THIS MORNING. LLVL
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 74 / 30 20 10 20
STT 87 78 87 77 / 10 0 10 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
51. Tropicsweatherpr
10:56 AM GMT on November 25, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...PATCHES AND BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF PASSING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX..TJSJ AND TJBQ DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON IN
SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 20

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
50. Tropicsweatherpr
1:54 AM GMT on November 25, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
832 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH POLAR TROF LOOSENING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE NRN CARIBBEAN. FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SUN NIGHT AND MON.
RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE MID NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE- TROUGH EXITING THE
U.S. EAST COAST REINFORCES POLAR TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA UNDER A LIGHT NERLY BDRY FLOW WITH AREAS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE
WITH A DRY MORNING. SCT SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. HEIGHTS WILL RISE QUICKLY SUN
NIGHT UNDER BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FOG
IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER.

TRANQUIL MON-TUE UNDER UPPER RIDGE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN MID WEEK AS POLAR TROF INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC. HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN TO CRASH WED NIGHT LEADING
TO MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH
PRES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
SHALLOW CONVECTION FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR TERMINALS WITH
CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-7K FT TIL 25/12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM LIGHT AND
VRB TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER
24/16Z...SHRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SW PR...POSSIBLY
CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF VCSH FOR TJPS AND TJMZ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 4-6 FT IN NORTH SWELLS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE
UP TO 20 KT MON-TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DID CANCEL SCA AS REGIONAL BUOYS AND SWELL DECAY NOMOGRAMS SUGGEST
SEAS ONLY REACHING 6 FT. LATEST WNA GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SEAS UP
TO 6 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 86 / 40 10 30 30
STT 76 87 77 88 / 40 10 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
49. Tropicsweatherpr
7:14 PM GMT on November 24, 2012
Good afternoon. Nice week ahead with plenty of sunshine and cooler temperatures.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAK TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH A
JETSTREAM WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT WILL SHIFT TO
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY TO FOCUS ON
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL RETURN IN A MUCH WEAKER CONDITION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME EAST
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BEGINNING TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY STIFLED BY THE
ENTRANCE OF DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS...BUT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RETURNS SOME SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE ONSHORE IN NORTHEAST FLOW
INTO PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. ALSO A CHANCE SHOWER MAY CROSS SAINT
CROIX. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AREA-
WIDE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN PLUMMET BELOW 1.5 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME RECOVERY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE VCNTY TJMZ AND TJPS
BETWEEN 24/17Z AND 24/22Z. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
TJSJ/TJBQ AND TIST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LLVL WINDS NE 5-10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 7 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR 3 OR 4 DAYS...OTHERWISE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 6 FEET IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. MODELS SHOW SWELL INCREASING
AGAIN MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 76 87 77 88 / 30 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
48. Tropicsweatherpr
11:00 AM GMT on November 24, 2012
Good morning. Normal weather for this time of the year will prevail for the NE Caribbean in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SAT NOV 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE DISSIPATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELITE IMAGE SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH TIME. ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW PROMISE
TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
AT NIGHTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY...DRIER
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. LATEST
24/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB WILL
DROP AS LOW AS 320K BY THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
AROUND 1.4 INCHES. SOMETHING TO POINT OUT...THE GFS HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DRIER CONDITIONS LAST FEW DAYS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH MODEL
INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...KEPT SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST..MAINLY FOR NEXT
FRIDAY...AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY WILL SEE A
NORMAL PATTERN...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT TAF SITES TO BE DRY THIS MORNING WITH VCSH AT
TJSJ/TIST AND CIG NR FL060-080 OVR USVI AND NORTH OF PR...GRDL DSPTG.
SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN AGAIN OVER INTERIOR PR ABOUT NOON AND TO DRIFT
TOWARDS ALL COASTS...AIDED A BIT BY UPPER JET LATE AFT. ISOLD SHRA
ELSEWHERE. LLVL WIND BLO FL150 TO REMAIN VRBL 5-15 KT THRU SUN.


&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH FACING COASTS...AND
SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI. SWELL
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 76 / 40 70 70 40
STT 87 83 87 83 / 20 30 30 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
47. Tropicsweatherpr
2:34 AM GMT on November 24, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT
WITH FLAT RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD SUN NIGHT. FRONT STRETCHING NE
TO SW INTO THE NRN DOM REP WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF AGUADILLA
SAT THEN DISSIPATE MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT NRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT LATE IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
FIRING AGAIN OVR THE CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK
WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT
ITSELF AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE QUICKLY SUN
NIGHT WITH FRONT FCST TO DISSIPATE. H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
FCST TO BECOME QUITE LARGE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND DOUBT THAT ANY
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT MON-TUE WHICH SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT SEA
BREEZE CYCLE.

REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. TURNING
COOLER NEXT THU AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP
AS RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SWD AND POLAR TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ATLC INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF EARLY
MORNING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST PR TYPICAL OF WINTER
AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR TERMINALS AS
WELL AS TIST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 4-7K FT WITH OCNL PERIODS OF AROUND 3K FT. WINDS WILL
BE FROM LIGHT AND VRB TO NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS PR AND
USVI. TNCM AND TKPK CAN EXPECT WINDS FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTER 24/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
PR...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN STEERING WINDS...VCTS WAS LEFT OUT OF
TAF.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT IN NORTH SWELLS. WILL CHECK BUOYS AGAIN TO
SEE IF SMALL CRAFT ADVZY IS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 86 / 80 40 70 70
STT 80 87 80 87 / 80 40 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
46. Tropicsweatherpr
8:41 PM GMT on November 23, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

PRC053-089-119-232330-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0450.121123T2033Z-121123T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
FAJARDO PR-LUQUILLO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
433 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
FAJARDO...LUQUILLO AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 429 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 730 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6570 1840 6558 1836 6552 1837 6561
1834 6562 1835 6556 1834 6561 1832 6560
1833 6562 1828 6564 1827 6573 1829 6575
1829 6579 1827 6583 1831 6587 1840 6587
1842 6590 1844 6586

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
45. Tropicsweatherpr
8:02 PM GMT on November 23, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

PRC029-031-087-232200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0449.121123T1954Z-121123T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-LOIZA PR-
354 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CAROLINA AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 353 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...
PARTICULARLY OVER CAROLINA AND LOIZA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT
LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 600 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6588 1842 6590 1841 6588 1838 6588
1836 6597 1845 6603 1846 6596

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
44. Tropicsweatherpr
7:30 PM GMT on November 23, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. LESS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SLOWLY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE OR OVER
THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEAN TIME...WILL KEEP
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP. THEREFORE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY
WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE IT IS
HARD TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE ACTIVE WEATHER MAY
IMPACT...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GENERALIZED THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 12Z GEFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MUCH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...BRINGING A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
UNTIL 23/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE SW AT 5-15 KT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT BOOST IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG MOST NORTH FACING COASTS...AND
SOME WEST FACING SHORES OF THE PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI
STARTING TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A SECONDARY PEAK ON MONDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
5 TO 7 FEET DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 86 / 50 50 50 50
STT 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
43. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on November 23, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LATEST 23/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.87 INCHES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS BEEN RUNNING DRIER...WITH
PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED THIS MORNING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHWEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...BECOMING EVEN DRIER BY MID WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. IN
GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR XPTD BUT MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. MOST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO BE OVR NE PR IN VERY WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL BE MORE INTERIOR PR. LLVL
WINDS SW 5-15 KT TODAY THEN VRBL ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 50 50 50 50
STT 83 83 83 83 / 20 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
42. Tropicsweatherpr
11:16 AM GMT on November 22, 2012
Good morning and happy thanksgiving day to all in the Caribbean and in Central America.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST THU NOV 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY...AS THE
AREA CONTINUES UNDER A PERSISTENT ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEAST OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES
INDICATED THIS FEATURE IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. BY FRIDAY...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED DRIER AIR AT MID LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THETA-E VALUES AT
700MB ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 340K TODAY...TO NEAR 325 BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE WINDS...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FEATURE...WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING ON MONDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOME
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE LIVING ACROSS THESE
AREAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND
BE READY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED IN YOUR AREA. HAPPY THANKSGIVING DAY TO ALL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CONDS CONT THRU MORNING FOR STT/STX IN
REGENERATING SHRA. XPCT PR AND NCM/KPK TAF SITES TO BE VFR AND CLR
OF SHRA TIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. VRY WEAK SOUTH FLOW IMPLIES
MOST SHRA/TSRA TO BE ON NORTH SIDE OF PR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LLVL WIND TO FL150 S TO SW 5-15 KT THRU TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 70 10 50 60
STT 87 76 85 76 / 50 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
41. Tropicsweatherpr
9:51 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

PRC007-021-045-047-061-101-105-107-127-135-139-14 3-145-220015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0443.121121T2122Z-121122T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COMERIO PR-COROZAL PR-GUAYNABO PR-MOROVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-
OROCOVIS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
AGUAS BUENAS PR-TOA ALTA PR-
522 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COMERIO...COROZAL...GUAYNABO...MOROVIS.. .NARANJITO...
OROCOVIS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...
AGUAS BUENAS AND TOA ALTA

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 518 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
815 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6603 1830 6605 1831 6606 1829 6607
1824 6643 1837 6645 1839 6605

$$

FIGUEROA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

PRC001-013-027-065-081-083-131-141-153-212245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0442.121121T2048Z-121121T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-LARES PR-UTUADO PR-YAUCO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
ARECIBO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CAMUY PR-
448 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...LARES...UTUADO...YAUCO...SAN SEBASTIAN...ADJUNTAS...
ARECIBO...LAS MARIAS AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 445 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ALMOST
TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN...ON THESE SATURATED
SOILS...OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 645 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6665 1821 6663 1821 6664 1819 6664
1818 6665 1816 6685 1817 6684 1819 6686
1819 6689 1820 6693 1836 6698

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
40. Tropicsweatherpr
8:18 PM GMT on November 21, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

PRC025-035-057-063-077-109-129-212300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0441.121121T2000Z-121121T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-GUAYAMA PR-GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-
400 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CAYEY...GUAYAMA...GURABO...JUNCOS...PATIL LAS AND SAN
LORENZO

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 350 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ALMOST
ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN...ON THESE SATURATED
SOILS...OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 700 PM AST AND FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
EXTENDED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6588 1816 6592 1804 6605 1810 6613
1827 6599

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
39. Tropicsweatherpr
11:20 AM GMT on November 21, 2012
Good morning. No change from the wet pattern for PR in the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED NOV 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO INDICATED A
CONVERGENCE ZONE PREVAILING OVER PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CONDITIONS LOOKS WETTER FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF MORE THAN 2.0
INCHES...THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB BETWEEN 330-335K AND GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KM
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY. ALL THESE
FACTORS PROMISE TO MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON...AND GOOD EPISODES OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND RIVERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO ARE RUNNING AT
HIGH LEVELS DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND
THE NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...RIPPLES IN LLVL TROUGH ACROSS USVI BRING SHRA...ISOLD
TSRA AND VRB WINDS TO FA. NW FLOW OVR PUERTO RICO WILL SHIFT TO NE
AFT 21/18Z. ISOLD SHRA OVR PR WILL CONT TIL 21/17Z...THEN SHRA/TSRA
WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
ISLAND TO NE CORNER WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR...WHICH WILL BE GENLY BRIEF AT TAF SITES TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ. HEAVIEST SHRA BTWN USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...RETURNING AFT
22/00Z. LLVL WINDS NW UP THROUGH 10 KFT NW OF A LINE NE-SW 20 NM SE
OF TISX...BECMG VRBL AFT 21/18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 50 30 70 20
STT 86 75 86 79 / 30 30 40 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
38. Tropicsweatherpr
8:48 PM GMT on November 20, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

PRC009-019-039-043-073-075-107-113-133-149-202330 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0440.121120T2027Z-121120T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-
OROCOVIS PR-PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-VILLALBA PR-AIBONITO PR-
427 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
OROCOVIS...PONCE...SANTA ISABEL...VILLALBA AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 423 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ALMOST ONE INCH OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN...ON THESE SATURATED SOILS...OVER PARTS OF
THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF
AT LEAST ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 730 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1811 6668 1823 6633 1807 6628 1798 6666

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
37. Tropicsweatherpr
7:16 PM GMT on November 20, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

PRC007-021-025-029-031-045-061-063-089-119-127-13 9-202045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0439.121120T1852Z-121120T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-CANOVANAS PR-COMERIO PR-GUAYNABO PR-GURABO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-
252 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CANOVANAS...COMERIO...GUAYNABO. ..GURABO...SAN
JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...AGUAS BUENAS...CAROLINA...LUQUILLO AND
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 247 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ALMOST 1 INCH OF RAIN
HAS ALREADY FALLEN...ON THESE SATURATED SOILS...OVER PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT
LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 445 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6620 1840 6585 1837 6573 1831 6572
1827 6595 1822 6600 1824 6621

$$

AAS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
36. Tropicsweatherpr
11:04 AM GMT on November 20, 2012

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXED AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA ARE LIKELY. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
UNDER THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BUT DOES NOT QUITE PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOL TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS FROM
THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO TO JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS AREA WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AFT 20/15Z WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR AT TJSJ AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. SHRA WILL CONT THRU 21/02Z IN THE USVI AND PR. LLVL
WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHERLY.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE REPORTING SEAS
FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE THE FORECAST REFLECTS SEAS OF UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT 14
KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL A
SWELL STARTS INVADING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 74 / 70 30 50 20
STT 84 79 84 79 / 60 30 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
35. Tropicsweatherpr
8:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 PM AST MON NOV 19 2012

PRC039-054-192245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0435.121119T2043Z-121119T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-
443 PM AST MON NOV 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES AND FLORIDA

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 441 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
645 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD
ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6658 1839 6658 1840 6656 1837 6654
1834 6654 1833 6648 1827 6648 1824 6654

$$

BCS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
34. Tropicsweatherpr
8:21 PM GMT on November 19, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST MON NOV 19 2012

PRC047-051-091-101-105-135-137-143-145-192245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0434.121119T1951Z-121119T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
351 PM AST MON NOV 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...MANATI...MOROVIS...NARANJITO...VEGA ALTA...VEGA
BAJA...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 347 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1
INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 645 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER
IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6625 1848 6624 1848 6618 1848 6617
1840 6621 1828 6623 1826 6626 1828 6640
1837 6646 1838 6650 1848 6648 1848 6646
1849 6641

$$

BCS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
33. Tropicsweatherpr
10:49 AM GMT on November 19, 2012
Good morning. As mentioned before,it looks like the Thanksgiving holiday will be a wet one for PR/VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST MON NOV 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR
TOMORROW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND TO COMPLETELY FLATTEN OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. THERE
IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING TIME OF MAX
HEATING...WIND FLOW...AND THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REST
OF THE AREA...SUCH AS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...MAY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES.

TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN WHICH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FOR MID AND THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEREFORE THE CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL EITHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH OR
WEAKENS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA IS MOVG INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL
BRING SPOTTY MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 19/14Z.
THESE TAF SITES WILL SEE A DEFINITE IMPVMT AFT 19/19Z. SCT SHRA
FOR TIST/TISX WITH MVFR VCNTY WITH BREAK BTWN 19/11-15Z THEN MORE
SHRA/MVFR PSBL TIL AFT 20/12Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO
TIL 19/16Z EXCEPT ERN COAST IN SCT SHRA. AFT 19/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL
GENERATE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDS MAINLY NW VCNTY TJMZ
AND TJBQ AND OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL. CLRG AFT 20/02Z. LLVL WINDS
ESE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU 15 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY TODAY...AS
SEAS MAY BE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 19 KNOTS TODAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 74 / 40 30 30 30
STT 83 82 83 82 / 60 30 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
32. Tropicsweatherpr
8:36 PM GMT on November 18, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

PRC013-065-182145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0433.121118T1949Z-121118T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
349 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 344 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
545 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6661 1834 6661 1833 6671 1836 6672
1834 6680 1850 6682 1850 6677 1848 6674
1850 6667

$$

BCS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
31. Tropicsweatherpr
11:23 AM GMT on November 18, 2012
Good morning. The Thanksgiving day holiday will be a wet one.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED AFFECTING THE
LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS SOME ARES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MODERATE BUT MOST OF THEM WERE LIGHT AS THEY PASSED BY.

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THEN TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THAT TIME...COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...ONCE AGAIN WE EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
ISLAND. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
NEARBY THUNDERSTORM.

BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. AS THIS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE TO THE
TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ENTER AREA TODAY BUT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION OVER
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR AFT
18/17Z ANYWAY. AFT 18/18Z MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ IN TSRA
TIL 18/21Z. LLVL WINDS ESE 5 TO 15 KT UP THROUGH 12 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH
OF OUR WATERS IS REPORTING SEAS OF ALMOST 7 FEET WHILE THE SAN
JUAN BUOY HAS BEEN REPORTING SEAS OF ABOUT 5 FEET...THEREFORE SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN WATERS WERE KEPT IN
THE FORECAST AS THE EAST NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 16 KNOTS OR LESS
FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 74 / 30 50 50 30
STT 87 77 86 75 / 40 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
30. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on November 17, 2012
Good morning. It looks like Thanksgiving day will be with scattered showers in NE Caribbean.Stay tuned for more details as time goes by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST SAT NOV 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEAST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A STRONG TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE RIDGE
RECOVERS VERY LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH HOLDING FLOW MAINLY ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO KEEP
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. A LOW THAT DEEPENS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWEST AND FORMS A STRONG AND LARGE
LOW PRESSURE BY FRIDAY THAT WEAKENS FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND DROPS
A SHEAR LINE NEAR TO OR ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE GENERALLY
REMAINS HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. SOME OF THESE HAVE
LEFT NEARLY ONE HALF INCH ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND AS MUCH
AS FOUR HUNDREDTHS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PERFECT AGREEMENT ABOUT WIND DIRECTION TODAY...WITH THE NAM
RUNNING A LITTLE MORE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT GENERAL FLOW IS EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE HOWEVER PROMISES GOOD SHOWER COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 70 PERCENT
WITH THE HIGHEST IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY WEST OF SAN JUAN.
MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINS HIGH DURING THE WEEK WITH A FEW DRY
SLOTS. A FRONT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS HAVE DEPICTED IT AS REACHING VERY CLOSE TO
THE AREA OR PASSING PUERTO RICO...BUT THE DRIER AIR BEHIND IT DOES
NOT MAKE IT TO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FRONT/SHEARLINE STALLS
AROUND FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INCLUDING THANKSGIVING AND THE
FRIDAY AFTER. CURRENTLY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MORE MOISTURE FOR
THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...AND WITH CLIMATOLOGY FAVORING THIS
SOLUTION...HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AT TJSJ...TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFT 17/17Z...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...AND
EVEN POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 17/21Z.
HOWEVER...TJSJ AND TJPS MAY STILL OBSERVE VCTS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NEARLY WEST SWELL OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS CONTINUES ABOVE 2
METERS 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY RELAX TO 4 TO
5 FEET AT BUOY 41043. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEADLINE FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 76 / 40 30 40 50
STT 87 77 89 78 / 40 30 30 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
29. Tropicsweatherpr
10:43 AM GMT on November 16, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO THE AREA MID NEXT
WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVING CLOSE TO THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH FEW OF
THEM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS
DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS
PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 1.50 INCHES TODAY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
MORE FROM THE EAST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FORM...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVING CLOSE TO THE
REGION BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE MORNING
HOURS. AFT 16/17Z...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR...SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR RESULTING
IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 16/21Z. SFC TO 2K
FT WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 88 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
28. Tropicsweatherpr
2:12 AM GMT on November 16, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON THE TRADES...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AREA
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN
16/17-21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

MARINE UPDATE...BUOYS 41044 ABOUT 500 NM NORTHEAST OF PR MEASURED
A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 8-10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. USING THE SWELL DECAY
CALCULATOR...SEAS OF 6-7 FEET WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AMZ710 UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
27. Tropicsweatherpr
8:46 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Good afternoon. There is a potential big rain event that may unfold for next week in the NE Caribbean so stay tuned for more information as it becomes available.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON MON AS DEEP TROF OVER ERN NOAM BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST CNTRL ATLC. SFC LOW PRES FCST TO
DEVELOP NEAR BERMUDA MONDAY WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO THE AREA
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON MON AS A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS SPLITS AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC. AS
THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE A SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR
BERMUDA MOVING IT SLOWLY EWD. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A SHEARLINE INTO
THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT KEEPING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SHEARLINE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIG RAINS MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. NOTE THAT MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY AT THE SFC. IN SUMMARY...VERY WET CONDITIONS APPEAR IN
STORE FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 16/12Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ THROUGH 15/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...A NEW PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TONIGHT. SCA`S MAY GO INTO EFFECT AGAIN FOR THE ATLC WATERS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 88 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 87 78 88 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
26. Tropicsweatherpr
10:35 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Good morning. Less rain is forecast for today thru Friday for PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. AS THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
MORE STABLE PATTERN TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT THROUGH OUT THE DAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT OVERALL DECREASING CLOUDINESS...AS
WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW
1.50 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
WIND WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE CIMMS-MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 15 KTS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCES...IF
ANY...OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTIPLE LYRS OF LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER THE FLYING AREA THRU 15/15Z...WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
OVR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATER AND VCNTY TIST...TISX...TJSJ AS WELL
AS VCTY TNCM AND TKPN. OTHERWISE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. SCT-BKN
CLD LYRS BTW MAINLY BTW FL025-FL100 WITH BKN-OVC HIGH CLDS NR FL200
IN NW QUAD OF FLYING AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FM
THE E-NE AT 5 TO 15 KT BLO FL150. FM 15/17Z-15/22Z...EXPECT ISOLD
TSRA OVR WRN PR AND PARTS OF CENTRAL INTERIOR W/MTN TOP OBSCR AND
BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ IN CIGS/VSBY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
25. Tropicsweatherpr
3:13 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST WED NOV 14 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
PUERTO RICO AND USVI THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE CIMMS-MIMIC PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. 18Z GFS
MOVES THIS WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR. CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
24. Tropicsweatherpr
7:51 PM GMT on November 14, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST WED NOV 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AND
HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A DRYING
TREND THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH FRI. OVR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE
SURGES BACK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. THINGS TURN
MUCH WETTER ON MON AS AN INVERTED SFC TROF ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
AREA AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS AS MID-UPPER RIDGE ERODES AS
UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH. A SHEARLINE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRES FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO ENTER
THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED AND ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SO OVERALL TREND...IS FOR SIG DRYING
NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MOISTENING OVER THE WEEKEND
AND SIG BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MID CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SIG DRYING/CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 5-7 FT IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ710 THRU TUE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 88 / 10 20 30 30
STT 76 87 78 87 / 10 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
23. Tropicsweatherpr
10:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST WED NOV 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE NOW EXTENDING
SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED AND EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH
THE STILL MOIST EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WERE STILL PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
VENTILATION/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WHILE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
PATTERN TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WAS ALSO
STEERING PATCHES OF MID TO UPPER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND ALLOWING FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DEPICTED CLUSTERS OF CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS WITH SOME BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND OCCASIONALLY THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT
FACTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE EXPECT A MORE
STABLE PATTERN TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE ALOFT THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...EXPECT OVERALL DECREASING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW 1.70 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND WIND FLOW WILL BE MORE FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THERE
IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BY LATE
MORNING WITH LESSER SHOWER EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SCT SHRA VCNTY TIST...TISX...
TJSJ AND TJPS. OTHERWISE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SE AT 5 TO 15 KT. AFT 14/17Z
EXPECT TSRA TO FORM WRN PR AND OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL WRN HALF WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR AT TJMZ FOR CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 75 / 30 20 20 30
STT 87 76 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
22. Tropicsweatherpr
3:13 AM GMT on November 14, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2012

.UPDATE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ATTM...RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. TJSJ EVENING
RAOB INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH A LLVL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 15 KTS. WITH THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND MAY AFFECT THE EAST AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER...LOCAL BUOYS AND LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
STILL SUGGESTING SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE AMZ710.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
21. Tropicsweatherpr
11:00 AM GMT on November 13, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINTAINING A STRONG DIFFLUENT
PATTERN AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A DEEP TONGUE OF
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES NOW AT 2.00
INCHES OF MORE...MAKING THE LOCAL AIR MASS VERY UNSTABLE AND RIPE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUED ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN ISOLATED AREAS... WHICH EVENTUALLY LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND PUERTO RICO... AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD GREATLY ENHANCE DAYTIME CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES/ LAYERED MOISTURE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARDS.
ALSO DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGESTS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TISX...TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 13/11Z. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN 13/11Z AD
13/16Z. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13/17Z AND
13/22Z ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PR...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ. TJSJ 13/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 10
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
20. Tropicsweatherpr
3:11 AM GMT on November 13, 2012
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

PRC003-005-131100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0044.121113T0300Z-121113T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
1100 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
AGUADA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
AGUADILLA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 700 AM AST TUESDAY

* AT 1058 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN RISES ON RIO CULEBRINAS AT MARGARITA DAM. THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE
IS 14.77 FEET AND RISING. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE RIO CULEBRINAS
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY. AT
15 FEET...THE RIVER WILL FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS IN ROUTE 115 AND
418.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6718 1841 6713 1837 6714 1839 6720

$$

ER/JFR
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
19. Tropicsweatherpr
8:17 PM GMT on November 12, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

PRC003-005-011-027-071-081-099-115-117-131-122030 -
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-RINCON PR-AGUADILLA PR-
ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-AGUADA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
326 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

AT 321 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN SEBASTIAN AND MOCA...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. ALSO...SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
18. Tropicsweatherpr
8:16 PM GMT on November 12, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

PRC003-005-011-027-071-081-099-115-117-131-122215 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0430.121112T1912Z-121112T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-RINCON PR-AGUADILLA PR-
ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-AGUADA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
312 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...RINCON...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...CAMUY...AGUADA AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 310 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
CONTINUED TO RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND STREETS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6691 1849 6683 1839 6681 1828 6684
1827 6698 1829 6704 1827 6704 1826 6718
1827 6719 1831 6719 1831 6713 1837 6712
1842 6717 1848 6718 1851 6715 1853 6709

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
17. Tropicsweatherpr
8:15 PM GMT on November 12, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
LITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT
OUT WITH ELONGATED RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 12/18Z...
CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WEATHER EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS NW
PUERTO RICO AFTER 13/00Z. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AS
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 13/12Z FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...AS NORTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 70 30 50 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 60 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
16. Tropicsweatherpr
10:32 AM GMT on November 12, 2012
Good morning. More rain is expected today in PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE JUST NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THE REST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND ENTER THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
MONA PASSAGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT TUESDAY...WHEN IT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY AND
HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INDUCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FUT HER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLY MOIST AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARDS.

EXPECT A CONTINUED OVERALL WET WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING THE AFTERNOONS EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL... WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
A GRADUAL DECLINE OF OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AS WELL
AS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND REST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS
AND FEWER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TISX AND TNCM
IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A FEW VCSH AROUND THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12/16Z. L/LVL WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO THE E
TO ESE THIS AFTERNOON. SHWR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFT 12/16Z...
AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 76 / 70 30 40 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 60 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
15. Tropicsweatherpr
12:18 AM GMT on November 12, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
814 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2012

PRC021-047-051-105-135-137-120200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0429.121112T0014Z-121112T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-NARANJITO PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
814 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...NARANJITO...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 801 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND
CONTINUED TO RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND STREETS AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6617 1846 6617 1848 6614 1847 6612
1843 6617 1842 6613 1829 6614 1823 6635
1837 6635 1837 6632 1842 6630 1845 6632
1848 6631

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
14. Tropicsweatherpr
7:41 PM GMT on November 11, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
LITTLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH ELONGATED
RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL REGION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE MONA PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW DICTATING THE LOCATION OF THE BEST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AN OVERALL
DRIER PATTERN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. FRONT TO THE NW
OF PR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND CAUSE SUDDEN SHIFT
IN WIND DIRECTION...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER
12/16Z...TSRA IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR..AFFECTING
TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ. VCTS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR TIST AND TISX DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT LOCATION OF TSRA ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...AS
NORTH SWELLS PEAK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 50 70 30 40
STT 81 82 81 82 / 70 60 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
13. Tropicsweatherpr
10:53 AM GMT on November 11, 2012
Good morning. This will be the story for today and Monday in PR and VI. I love this kind of weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC INTO
THE SCNTRL CARIB WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU MID WEEK.
TROF WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH RIDGING XPCD TO BUILD BRIEFLY THU-FRI
BEFORE A NEW TROF BUILDS AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE NW OF PR AND ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL YIELD SCT-NMRS SHOWERS TODAY. FEATURE OF GREATER
INTEREST HOWEVER IS SFC TROF LOCATED EAST OF 60W WHICH IS
GENERATING SCT DEEP CONVECTION ATTM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WWD
NEXT 24 HRS AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MON
MORNING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI AND ACROSS NW PR
MON AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY AND K INDICES IN THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING
TAKE PLACE ACROSS ERN PR MON MORNING.

NOT AS ACTIVE TUE-WED AS SFC TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND DOM REP BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL STILL AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCT DEEP CONVECTION. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
FOR THU AND FRI WITH SIG MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY MODELS.
MODELS THEN SHOW MID-UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A SFC TROF ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS TJSJ... TIST AND TKPK IN PASSING SHRA.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW VCSH AROUND THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NNE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA WILL RANGE BTWN 20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT MON IN MIXED NORTH AND ENE SWELLS
THEN SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 87 78 / 60 50 70 30
STT 81 81 82 81 / 40 70 60 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
12. Tropicsweatherpr
8:08 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
Good afternoon. Cooler temperatures combined with scattered showers will be the dominant weather pattern for the next 24-48 hours in PR/VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH THE SHEARLINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHEAR LINE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW DICTATING
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 87 / 60 60 40 50
STT 82 82 82 82 / 60 60 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
11. Tropicsweatherpr
7:40 PM GMT on November 10, 2012
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012

AMZ710-741-102230-
332 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA...

AT 324 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
AGUADILLA. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS UP
TO 33 KNOTS...AS MOVES TO THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL
OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 1952 6801 1951 6633 1799 6798 1802 6801

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
10. Tropicsweatherpr
10:57 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE...NOW LOCATED
OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH SHEARLINE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT LATE EVENING/
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND USVI...AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY DUE TO
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN INDUCE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY-
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERA
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST
2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SUN-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 50 60 60 40
STT 82 82 82 82 / 30 60 60 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
9. Tropicsweatherpr
11:21 AM GMT on November 09, 2012
Good morning. Lovely weather expected this weekend wirh lower temperatures with scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AS
WELL AS USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SW PR...THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
AND MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.

WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE...NOW LOCATED WEST OF
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEAR LINE
APPROACHING THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENHANCING CHANCE FOR
SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GOOD CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY AS PWAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERA
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST
2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SAT-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL START
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 86 76 / 20 60 60 60
STT 86 79 82 82 / 10 40 40 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775

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