Tropicsweatherpr's WunderBlog

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...PATCHES AND BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF PASSING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX..TJSJ AND TJBQ DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS AND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON IN
SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 20

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST MON NOV 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THIS MORNING. LLVL
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 74 / 30 20 10 20
STT 87 78 87 77 / 10 0 10 30

Good morning. The good weather will continue for the next few days in PR/VI and adjacent islands.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE FA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FORESEEN...AS THE COMBINATION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES AND BANDS OF MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ UNTIL 27/14Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN
FM THE NE AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH NORTH SWELLS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 30 30 30 20

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST WED NOV 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A TROUGH BECOMES
LOCATED JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FA DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE BANDS
AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHWRS EMBEDDED IN A
EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA FM TIME TO TIME. VCSH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI TAF
SITES AND TJSJ THROUGH 28/14Z. THE AVG 0-6 KM WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY FM THE NE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 20

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST THU NOV 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS
BROAD TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUCED SFC TROF AND AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM NE OF PR MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH A WARM DRY AFTERNOON EXPECTED UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY OUT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY FRI BUT AREA
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH. THINGS THEN START TO CHANGE FRI NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH FCST TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY SAT. AS
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA SUN AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL FORM AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL START PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST MON DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT. SIG
LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING WILL START TAKING PLACE MON WITH A SHARP
DECREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED MON. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK AS AREA BECOMES UNDER
STRONG UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
JET STREAK. ALSO EXPECT A SIG COOL DOWN MON NIGHT THROUGH THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS...MAINLY THROUGH 29/12Z AND THEN AGAIN BETWEEN 29/18Z AND
29/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT PERHAPS UP T0 6 FT IN MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND
ENE WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 73 / 0 10 10 40
STT 86 76 87 76 / 0 10 10 50

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU NOV 29 2012

PRC023-079-093-121-125-292200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0451.121129T1855Z-121129T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
255 PM AST THU NOV 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAJAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 600 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6715 1815 6697 1798 6698 1797 6717

$$

CASTRO

Good morning. Variable weather is expected this weekend for the NE Caribbean with scattered showers and cooler temperatures.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST FRI NOV 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ATLC. LOW PRES IS FCST TO DEVELOP NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH NNE WINDS ESTABLISHING MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE AS SEEN ON 00Z
JSJ RAOB. THIS TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO JUST SPRINKLES OR
VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS. S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
EMERGE INTO THE WRN ATLC SAT AND BEGIN TO ERODE RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIB. AS S/W TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
SW ATLC THIS WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WEAKEN THE CAP AND
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE SAT AND SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
ON SUN DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BETTER/STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERTED SFC TROF.

BAROCLINIC LOW WILL START DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS MON NIGHT WITH FRESH NNE WINDS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH DRYING AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY WITH PW VALUES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AND K INDICES AND
H85 THETAE VALUES STAYING HIGH IN THE 30S AND MID 330`S KELVIN
RESPECTIVELY. SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE LOTS OF NOCTURNAL SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN. EXPECT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER TROUGHFINESS
AND NORTHERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ENE LOW LVL WIND FLOW WILL BRING INTERVALS OF
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
WILL REMAIN PSBL IN SCT-ISOLD SHRA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 4-6 FT THROUGH MON BUT INCREASING 6-8 FT TUE
IN NORTHEAST SWELLS. IT APPEARS SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR AMZ710 MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 83 77 / 20 40 40 50
STT 80 80 81 79 / 20 50 50 50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST FRI NOV 30 2012

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED A SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECTED THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
TO BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES AND THUS ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO ERODE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCE OF
ENHANCED DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AND REASONING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.