TropicalAnalystwx13's WunderBlog

Unforeseen circumstance: Tropical Storm Alvin weakening, dissipation likely soon

Fri, 17 May 2013 03:05:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Alvin, the first named storm of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season, developed well south of the coastline of Mexico last night as a result of an area of low pressure that formed several days prior, west of Guatemala. At the time of formation, Alvin was a well-developed tropical cyclone, with fantastic banding and upper-level outflow. The same cannot be said tonight, unfortunately. Strong westerly wind shear on the order of 20 to 25 knots, not foreseen ...
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ALVIN! The first named storm of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season develops on cue

Wed, 15 May 2013 22:13:00 GMT

Not dissimilar to the 2012 Pacific hurricane season, which featured both Tropical Storm Aletta and Hurricane Bud in May, we are once again starting the hurricane season right on cue. What was once Invest 90E intensified into Tropical Depression One-E early this morning and further to Tropical Storm Alvin as of the latest update. The most recent information from the National Hurricane Center states maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph, and the minimum bar...
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Invest 90E likely to become Alvin; long-range development possible in both basins

Wed, 15 May 2013 02:13:00 GMT

The Pacific hurricane season is jumping the gun once again this year, with an area of disturbed weather—dubbed Invest 90E, the first invest of the season—positioned several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Satellite loops reveal the system remains relatively disorganized this evening, with weak and overall unconsolidated convection (it is in the process of organizing, however). In addition, Invest 90E remains a part of the monsoon trough and In...
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2013 Atlantic hurricane season: busy and dangerous

Mon, 13 May 2013 00:09:00 GMT

It feels like the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season just ended, and yet it's already time to start talking about the upcoming one. In summary, the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to draw out the almost continuous streak of Atlantic hurricane seasons above-average since 1995. A total of 16–19 named storms, 8–12 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes are expected, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of >150 units. Due to the positive Atlantic tr...
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2013 Atlantic hurricane season preliminary forecast

Tue, 12 Mar 2013 00:29:00 GMT

Well...it's March. Daylight Saving Time was yesterday, meaning we have lost an hour of sleep. But it also means we're getting closer to hurricane season, which now begins in less than three months. Speaking of the season...this one looks to be active. The variables I used for my forecast, an overview of them, and what they are forecast to be for this upcoming hurricane season are listed below.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

One of the mos...
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