East Coast Extreme Weather

The GSO and NAOECITO

Mon, 11 Jul 2011 03:25:00 GMT

Gulf Stream Oscillation and North Atlantic Ocean Extratropical Cyclone Intensity and Track OscillationGULF STREAM AND NORTH ATLANTIC EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY AND TRACK SCALEMAJOR – EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE HAS POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 24 HOUR PERIODMODERATE – EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 24 HOUR PERIODMINIMAL – EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NO POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICA...
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Severe Storms for interior and northwest portions of the Northeast

Fri, 27 May 2011 19:47:00 GMT

Severe storms have begun to initiate over VT and eastern upstate NY. High dew point air along with abundant sunshine has allowed the atmosphere ahead of the weakening mid level shortwave being sheared northeastward. Right now model of choice continues to remain the European model. It successfully forecasted the track of this mid level shortwave trough being sheared northeastward.Some wind shear is present, but not enough for widespread supercells, some isolated c...
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Winter Storm Blog

Fri, 7 Jan 2011 15:15:00 GMT

I will be leaving soon, so hopefully we all get one more great snowstorm before I leave for TX on Tuesday. Thank you for your prayers and for your thoughts. I appreciate it. I will back blogging when I can given that tech school asks a lot out of their airmen. I will do my best to keep you ahead of the next weather event after the next two months. Unfortunately it will be around spring time when that does happen, but regardless, we should have a couple more sto...
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Blizzard Forecast Critiques and A look ahead to next week

Wed, 29 Dec 2010 22:02:00 GMT

Critiques on the Blizzard of 2010:I greatly underestimated the intensity of warm air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures over Nantucket and most of the Outer Cape from Hyannis, MA and on eastward where between 33-35f which did not allow accumulations heavier than 2" of slush to occur across the area. I also did not overestimate the highest snowfall accumulation potential. Amounts of 30-32" of snow were found in NE NJ and SE NY into the w...
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BLIZZARD TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND - massive impact expected!

Sat, 25 Dec 2010 19:22:00 GMT

Decided to do a new and more complete blog entry dedicated to this snowstorm, given the seriousness of the potential situation. Here is my first and probably final issuance given I have some leeway with potential for higher amounts:Model Preference: 12z NAM/EURO track12z NAM precip output, added about .5-1.0" of QPF to the highest areas, adjusted west track given potential convective feedback issues12z NAM intensity, given potential convective feedback, went a litt...
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