More From the Heartland: Farmers (3)

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 4:32 AM GMT on July 12, 2013

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More From the Heartland: Farmers (3)

In the entry before President Obama’s speech, I wrote about farmers and climate change. I referred to a survey of farmer’s opinions on climate change performed by Iowa State University professor, J. Gordon Arbuckle and colleagues. In a 2013 paper in Climatic Change, Arbuckle and colleagues reported that 68% of farmers he surveyed in Iowa believed that the climate was changing. 28% were uncertain and only 5% believed that the climate was not changing. With regard to attribution, 10% felt that climate change was caused by humans, 23% felt it was natural, and about 35% felt it was caused by both human and natural causes. (Summary Article and Press Coverage )

In this blog I want to explore the results of the poll of the farmer’s some more.

Arbuckle’s work is in the standard protocol of social science studies focused on the acceptance and use of science-based knowledge by society. It utilizes the basic framework of how the responses to climate change are organized, specifically, mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, perhaps, coupled with enhancement of processes that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, such as storage of carbon dioxide in forests and soils. Adaptation is modification of how we do and build things in response to climate change.

First a little about social science research – In the past 5 years I have worked with several social scientists. The practice of social science has strict protocols. Interview-based research, such as discussed here, poses questions to be explored and answered by input from a set of interviewees. As in natural science, it is required that the research questions can be tested and evaluated. Not only does this require careful design of the research questions, but it also requires design, review and testing of the questions to be asked in the interview. The design of a robust experiment to disentangle questions where there is a strong element of human preference and decision is exceedingly difficult. This includes picking the group of people who are asked to respond to the interview.

The design of Arbuckle’s research had two research questions: “(1) do Iowa farmers support actions aimed at climate change adaptation and mitigation; and, (2) are beliefs and concerns about climate change associated with support for or opposition to those activities."

The interview questions that were designed to unravel the issues of the two research questions focused first on precipitation. As I wrote in the earlier blog, there is already a perceived change in precipitation, especially in the springtime during planting. There is too much water. It is worth noting that this part of the country is a part of the country that has seen less warming than the regions surrounding it – the Midwest warming hole (excellent paper by Kunkel et al. and Rood blog with unfilled promises). Therefore climate change is felt more in this region by changes in precipitation than by warming.

The interview questions were anchored around protecting the land, draining the land, and whether or not there should be mitigation to counter the climate change that is causing the increased precipitation. There was strong support for protecting the land through conservation practices. The support for draining the land was less strong, with more people uncertain about this option. An interesting aside, much of the Midwest corn land has extensive drainage infrastructure, which made what was historically a too wet environment into viable and excellent corn and soybean land. There was far less support for mitigation. However, looking at the mitigation numbers it was about equally split between opposing mitigation, uncertain about mitigation and supporting mitigation. Those opposing was about 3 percentage points higher than those supporting. This suggests that many recognize the changing climate and believe that more resiliency should be built into their land and practices – that is, they are interested in adaptation. They are less convinced of mitigation, which makes sense from many perspectives – but I assert because it is far less easy to see the benefit of mitigation whether or not there is acceptance that greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of the warming planet.

Arbuckle’s research then uses a set of questions to investigate farmer’s perception of vulnerability to farming due to climate change and extreme weather. As in the mitigation question those unsure, concerned and unconcerned were split, but in this case the largest group was always in the concerned group with numbers of about 40 percent to 20 percent. About a third of the farmers were uncertain in each category. The largest difference was in the group concerned about the impact of more extreme weather, with 45 percent expressing concern. The farmers were split on whether or not we would find technological or other methods to address climate change.

When all of these questions were put together and analyzed a set of conclusions, some surprising, emerge. Farmers interested in more protection of the land in anticipation of climate change had a high level of concern of increased risk and were older. Farmers interested in improved drainage had a high level of concern, large farms, higher education and felt that climate change was not a major issue because farmers would develop innovative solutions. Interestingly, support for taking adaptive measures did not correlate with whether or not the farmers perceived climate change was attributable to humans. Finally farmers interested in mitigation felt that the climate change was real and had an important contribution from humans, a high level of concern and did not feel that we would innovate our way to solutions.

One of the more robust conclusions from this research is that perceptions of vulnerability due to weather and increased vulnerability due to changes in precipitation and severe weather were a major motivation to take steps to prepare for climate change. This was true whether or not farmers “believed” in climate change. This recognition of vulnerability and increased risk is consistent with my (our) experience in the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Applications Center – people engage when they perceive vulnerability. Surprisingly, older farmers were more concerned than younger farmers about adaptation. With regard to mitigation, those who accepted a human contribution to the changing climate were more supportive of mitigation – makes sense. And worth a mention the combination of those who think that climate change has a human component or is primarily caused by humans is almost 45 percent, and that’s not as low as one might take away from the political and public record.

r

Some good references:

One Gardner’s Struggle

Gardeners Expect Warmer Nights

Climate and Farming

Farming Success in an Uncertain Future (Cornell)

USDA Warns Farmers about Climate Change (and announces plans to set up climate change centers)

Reinventing Farming for a Changing Climate (NPR)

Farm Level Adjustments to Climate Change (USDA)

Climate Change More Expensive to Farmers than Climate Bill

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593. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
6:25 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
RickyRood has created a new entry.
592. no1der
5:25 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Interview with Peter Wadhams

A very succinct 4 min review of sea ice, methane, and things that "might be most useful as far as keeping industrial civilization going".
Member Since: June 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
590. no1der
3:56 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
"So along came little Jennifer Francis of Rutgers who happened to notice..."
I shared this "little" phrase with the Dr. Mrs. 
I could quote her reaction and would be willing to endure a ban of some duration, for the pleasure of that short-lived post. But I would prefer not to attract any attention from the folks with the really big computers.
Quoting 581. 

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/ m ajor_cold_snow_into_brazil_while_antarctic_ice_nea rs_record_falsifies_pola/



Member Since: June 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
589. cyclonebuster
2:17 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Quoting 588. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think that moving the heat energy around on the planet only results in the same total heat energy that is already here. The transference of energy would have to be back out into space and away from the planet. The lid has to removed from the kettle in order to accomplish this within a reasonable time frame.


That is exactly what what OTEC,upwelling and kinetic energy combined can do for us... You hit the nail on the head. BINGO...
"The transference of energy would have to be back out into space and away from the planet. The lid has to removed from the kettle in order to accomplish this within a reasonable time frame."
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
588. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:11 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Quoting 587. cyclonebuster:



OTEC,upwelling and kinetic energy combined can get er done..Computers will verify...


I think that moving the heat energy around on the planet only results in the same total heat energy that is already here. The transference of energy would have to be back out into space and away from the planet. The lid has to removed from the kettle in order to accomplish this within a reasonable time frame.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
587. cyclonebuster
1:58 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Quoting 586. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I have long thought that the Arctic sea ice loss was the last tipping point that we could endure. Once the methane begins to enter into the atmosphere from the warming that has already occurred then there is nothing we can do but to count the years before life becomes unsustainable for us. The amount of transference of energy to reverse the process would be enormous. Mitigation, at this point, would prove to be as effective as a glass of water on a forest fire. We have no mechanisms at our disposal to remove enough CO2 from the atmosphere at a pace fast enough to counter the warming and to begin to stabilize the climate. I am a rookie in all of this, but this is what my reasoning capabilities are able to tell me. I will let the mathematicians among us crunch the numbers on this.



OTEC,upwelling and kinetic energy combined can get er done..Computers will verify...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
586. Some1Has2BtheRookie
1:34 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Quoting 584. Xandra:
From Hot Topic:

Arctic sea ice time bomb ticking: the bang’s gonna be huge



I have long thought that the Arctic sea ice loss was the last tipping point that we could endure. Once the methane begins to enter into the atmosphere from the warming that has already occurred then there is nothing we can do but to count the years before life becomes unsustainable for us. The amount of transference of energy to reverse the process would be enormous. Mitigation, at this point, would prove to be as effective as a glass of water on a forest fire. We have no mechanisms at our disposal to remove enough CO2 from the atmosphere at a pace fast enough to counter the warming and to begin to stabilize the climate. I am a rookie in all of this, but this is what my reasoning capabilities are able to tell me. I will let the mathematicians among us crunch the numbers on this.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
585. Birthmark
12:18 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Quoting 583. FLwolverine:
Sorry, friend.

Yeah, I'll jump on that dogpile, too.

"Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

Troy Masters (a), Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author,
Rasmus Benestad (b)

a Los Angeles, CA, United States
b The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway

Abstract

The paper by Humlum et al. (2013) suggests that much of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1980 results from changes in ocean temperatures, rather than from the burning of fossil fuels. We show that these conclusions stem from methodological errors and from not recognizing the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on inter-annual variations in atmospheric CO2."


AND


"Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51-69.]: Isotopes ignored

Zoltán Kern (a), Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author, E-mail the corresponding author,
Markus Leuenberger (b), (c), E-mail the corresponding author

a Institute for Geology and Geochemistry, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, MTA, Budaörsi út. 45, H-1112, Budapest, Hungary
b Division of Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
c Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland

Abstract

A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) What could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – play a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. Authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era."


Humlum (2013) is a pretty well-refuted paper at this point. I expect we'll see it cited, though, by the usual suspects. lol
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
584. Xandra
12:09 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
From Hot Topic:

Arctic sea ice time bomb ticking: the bang’s gonna be huge

by Gareth

Reading this press release about a new paper in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology spoiled my day. It might not be obvious to a casual reader just glancing through the morning news — but a couple of paragraphs leapt out at me:

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations recently reached 400 parts per million for the first time since the Pliocene Epoch, three million years ago. During this era, Arctic surface temperatures were 15-20 degrees Celsius warmer than today’s surface temperatures.

Ballantyne’s findings suggest that much of the surface warming likely was due to ice-free conditions in the Arctic. That finding matches estimates of land temperatures in the Arctic during the same time. This suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 400 ppm may be sufficient to greatly reduce the spatial extent and seasonal persistence of Arctic sea ice.

In other words, losing Arctic sea ice brings huge warming to the lands around the Arctic Ocean. This is extremely bad news for a number of reasons:

- We’re losing the Arctic sea ice well ahead of any schedule derived from model predictions. The sea ice summer minimum could drop below 1 million km2 within a decade. I have argued that it might be even sooner…
- Arctic warming and sea ice losses are already impacting northern hemisphere weather patterns.
- Once the summer sea ice has gone, it’s only a question of how long it will take for the winter ice to disappear. When I last looked at this issue, three years ago, I suggested this might happen much sooner than anyone expected — perhaps by the 2040s.
- When I wrote that post, I suggested that — if we were unlucky — winter ice loss could be within the current climate commitment — that is, within the warming we would expect to see from current levels of greenhouse gases. Ballantyne et al’s new paper explicitly supports that view.
- The consequences of warming of 10ºC to 20ºC on the lands around the Arctic Ocean are horrendous. Recent research suggests that total warming of as little as 1.5ºC could be enough to start major releases of methane as permafrost in Alaska, Canada and Siberia melts. There are also huge deposits of methane beneath the East Siberian Shelf (ESS) that are already beginning to discharge to the atmosphere as their permafrost cap begins to disintegrate under a warming ocean.
- A persistent large scale release of methane would transform the global climate system and make efforts to contain warming by reducing anthropogenic emissions more or less futile. We would be heading far beyond 2ºC deep into the realms of catastrophe.
- Just to complete my bad day, this Guardian report on a new paper modelling the economic costs of a 50 Gt methane release from the ESS suggests that the impact would generate an “extra $60 trillion (net present value) of mean climate change impacts” — comparable to total global GDP at present. World economy over, in other words.

This should be headline news. It should be plastered all over the front pages of newspapers and web sites around the world. TV pundits should be demanding action from the politicians who have put action on emissions reductions in the “too hard” basket. The evidence is beginning to suggest that Wally Broecker’s angry beast, fed up with being prodded with ever bigger sticks, is going to bite back hard — and bite back soon. Is there time to stop all this happening? Perhaps — but it will take a huge effort, a wartime response when the world is being led by billionaires, ideologues and their appeasers intent on denying reality. We’re sleepwalking to disaster. By the time we wake up, it will be too late.

[If we don't do something it's curtains]
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
583. FLwolverine
12:07 AM GMT on July 27, 2013
Hmmm… The website that our friend iceagecoming seems to favor - ICECAP, which is affiliated with Weatherbell - features this study that I’m sure iceagecoming will like:

The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
Ole Humlum et al, Elsevier Journal of Global and Planetary Change, January 2013

Abstract
Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2.

There is more to the abstract, but ICECAP is careful to set out the conclusions for those of us who don’t have access behind the paywall.

(selected)
(5) Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.
(6) CO2 released from anthropogene sources apparently has little influence on the observed changes in atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
(8) Since at least 1980 changes in global temperature, and presumably especially southern ocean temperature, appear to represent a major control on changes in atmospheric CO2.

Entire article available here: Link

Only problem is, ICECAP doesn’t make any reference to this article from the August issue of the same journal:

Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” by Humlum, Stordahl and Solheim Link
Author: Mark Richardson

Abstract
Humlum et al., 2013 conclude that the change in atmospheric CO2 from January 1980 is natural, rather than human induced. However, their use of differentiated time series removes long term trends such that the presented results cannot support this conclusion. Using the same data sources it is shown that this conclusion violates conservation of mass. Furthermore it is determined that human emissions explain the entire observed long term trend with a residual that is indistinguishable from zero, and that the natural temperature-dependent effect identified by Humlum et al. is an important contributor to the variability, but does not explain any of the observed long term trend of + 1.62 ppm yr− 1.

Sorry, friend.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2320
582. Birthmark
11:15 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
I strongly suspect that there is a lot of overlap between climate denialism and chauvinism.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
581. no1der
10:06 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
re: Iceagecoming's recent post #572 parts of which were lifted from this source (with acknowledgement):

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/m ajor_cold_snow_into_brazil_while_antarctic_ice_nea rs_record_falsifies_pola/

Copy/Paste being such a difficult operation, it was no doubt a simple error that only parts of the original screed were copied by Iceagecoming.
Let me add a few more choice bits that were for some reason not included:

"So along came little Jennifer Francis of Rutgers who happened to notice that warm water in the North Atlantic (around the Barents and Kara Sea) entered the arctic and led to melting of ice and subsequent warming a few years later." (italics mine)
and,
"She then theorized that this lack of arctic ice caused a polar amplification of the jet stream causing large waves instead of a more gentle, more zonal east west flow that bring warmer ocean are inland into North America, Europe. This amplification is what delivers the cold and snow to Eurasia and North America. This was of course jumped on by Jeff Masters now part of the new NBC Universal embarrassment conglomerate called the Weather Company that now even is affiliated with the lefty warmists from Climate Central like Heidi Cullen who embarrassed herself in front of the EPW this week."

The author seems to have a serious problem with women in science who have Ph. D.'s when he doesn't.
Member Since: June 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
580. SteveDa1
8:40 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
iceagecoming...

If it's the sun, then why is the upper atmosphere cooling?

If it was the sun, wouldn't there be more heat escaping into space than before?
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
579. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 570. iceagecoming:







The snow has been falling in Argentina and Uruguay and soon will begin in Brazil. These places have seen snow in recent years, a throwback to the 1960s in much the same way as the cold and snow in the Northern Hemisphere has resembled the snowy 1960s.

Sorry guys, it doesn’t fly. Try the sun, which years ago, I was told by Hurd ‘Doc’ Willett led to periods of great amplification and persistence like we are seeing (near solar minima).

Indeed Hansen’s own modeler, Drew Shindell has shown the low solar (low UV) Maunder minimum led to widespread cold but Atlantic blocking in the models that included ozone and UV.


But should they agree with the Russian scientists that we are heading into a Maunder and it will have a significant impact, its all over for the movement. But if Festinger is right, look for them to find another excuse like particulates from China coal plants, just like the cults awaiting the spaceship to take them away say they must have miscalculated on the date and time and will find another day to meet. When they fail, they are forgotten. Remember the hype about the catastrophic solar event in 2012? The Millennium bug that cost trillions? Will we look back on the AGW movement that almost destroyed Europe’s economy and threatens the US and think of the 1980s to 2000s as the good old days with the climate optimum we should of enjoyed instead of wasting trillions to end?






Link


Ah yes! The sun! How careless for us all to overlook the true furnace of our solar system. I should have gotten out more during the daylight hours and then I may not have missed this bit of information.

Here is something interesting, from your post - "... led to periods of great amplification and persistence like we are seeing (near solar minima)" Interesting, but not logical. Using this logic we should be experiencing some degree of cooling as opposed to a slower atmospheric warming over the past few years. Slower, but continued warming is the observation and not an actual cooling of the climate. Since it seems that you believe that it is the sun that controls our climate on a regular, cyclical basis, then why is it that the global warming still continues today even as we are reaching a solar minima? Could it be because the greenhouse gases we have introduced into the atmosphere over the past 150 years have retained more of the heat energy from the sun and has not allowed it to so easily escape back out into space? Could it be that? .... Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, could be! The Laws of Physics, Chemistry and Thermodynamics still apply, even when you wish that they did not.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
578. Birthmark
7:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 572. JohnLonergan:
From Neven's Forum Totay:


Gavin Schmidt detailed response on "economic time bomb"
« Reply #35 on: Today at 11:20:57 AM »
Reprint of a "post" sliced on tweeter by Gavin :
https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin

There seems to be a certain amount of hyperbole concerning methane lately. I'm glad Dr. Schmidt took the time to put things in their correct perspective.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
577. cyclonebuster
7:57 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 570. iceagecoming:







The snow has been falling in Argentina and Uruguay and soon will begin in Brazil. These places have seen snow in recent years, a throwback to the 1960s in much the same way as the cold and snow in the Northern Hemisphere has resembled the snowy 1960s.

Sorry guys, it doesn’t fly. Try the sun, which years ago, I was told by Hurd ‘Doc’ Willett led to periods of great amplification and persistence like we are seeing (near solar minima).

Indeed Hansen’s own modeler, Drew Shindell has shown the low solar (low UV) Maunder minimum led to widespread cold but Atlantic blocking in the models that included ozone and UV.


But should they agree with the Russian scientists that we are heading into a Maunder and it will have a significant impact, its all over for the movement. But if Festinger is right, look for them to find another excuse like particulates from China coal plants, just like the cults awaiting the spaceship to take them away say they must have miscalculated on the date and time and will find another day to meet. When they fail, they are forgotten. Remember the hype about the catastrophic solar event in 2012? The Millennium bug that cost trillions? Will we look back on the AGW movement that almost destroyed Europe’s economy and threatens the US and think of the 1980s to 2000s as the good old days with the climate optimum we should of enjoyed instead of wasting trillions to end?






Link



Get a clue iceagecoming....






...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
576. Birthmark
7:55 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 573. iceagecoming:

You're serving up a second helping of derp today? How generous!
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
575. Birthmark
7:53 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 571. iceagecoming:
Crosby, ND set a record low temperature of 41 for Jul 26
Panama City, FL set a record low temperature of 73 for Jul 26
Bloomington, IN set a record low temperature of 55 for Jul 26
Jonesville, VA set a record low temperature of 55 for Jul 26

07-24-2013 Del Norte 2e, CO High Minimum Temp Daily Record 56 °F 56 °F (07-24-1982)
07-24-2013 Great Sand Dunes Nm, CO High Minimum Temp Daily Record 60 °F 59 °F (07-24-2007)
07-24-2013 Hart Mtn Refuge, OR High Minimum Temp Daily Record 61 °F 60 °F (07-24-2003)
07-24-2013 Tuscarora, NV High Minimum Temp Daily Record 63 °F 63 °F (07-24-2007)
07-24-2013 Ruby Lake, NV High Minimum Temp Daily Record 64 °F 64 °F (07-24-2003)
07-24-2013 Barre Falls Dam, MA High Minimum Temp Daily Record 67 °F 67 °F (07-24-1961)
07-24-2013 Ordway 21 N, CO High Minimum Temp Daily Record 67 °F 65 °F (07-24-2008)
07-24-2013 Tully Lake, MA High Minimum Temp Daily Record 68 °F 68 °F (07-24-2003)
07-24-2013 Pueblo Rsvr, CO High Minimum Temp Daily Record 69 °F 68 °F (07-24-2012)
07-24-2013 Ferron, UT High Minimum Temp Daily Record 69 °F 67 °F (07-24-2009)
07-24-2013 Edgartown, MA High Minimum Temp Daily Record 71 °F 71 °F (07-24-1990)
07-24-2013 Navajo Dam, NM High Minimum Temp Daily Record 71 °F 68 °F (07-24-1964)
07-24-2013 Canyonlands-the Needle, UT High Minimum Temp Daily Record 72 °F 72 °F (07-24-2005)
07-24-2013 Norwich Pub Util Plt, CT High Minimum Temp Daily Record 72 °F 72 °F (07-24-2004)
07-24-2013 Clinton 5 SE, LA High Minimum Temp Daily Record 76 °F 76 °F (07-24-1999)
07-24-2013 Crockett, TX High Minimum Temp Daily Record 77 °F 77 °F (07-24-2001)
07-24-2013 Columbia, MS High Minimum Temp Daily Record 77 °F 77 °F (07-24-1934)
07-24-2013 Harlingen, TX High Minimum Temp Daily Record 79 °F 79 °F (07-24-1996)
07-24-2013 Slidell, LA High Minimum Temp Daily Record 79 °F 77 °F (07-24-2010)
07-24-2013 Galliano, LA High Minimum Temp Daily Record 80 °F 80 °F (07-24-1975)
07-24-2013 Yazoo City 5 NNE, MS High Minimum Temp Daily Record 80 °F 78 °F (07-24-1995)
07-24-2013 Center 4 SSW, CO High Maximum Temp Daily Record 90 °F 89 °F (07-24-2003)
07-24-2013 Cochiti Dam, NM High Maximum Temp Daily Record 99 °F 98 °F (07-24-2005)
07-24-2013 Perryton, TX High Maximum Temp Daily Record 104 °F 104 °F (07-24-1983)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
574. Birthmark
7:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 570. iceagecoming:

Derp, derp, derp!
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
573. iceagecoming
7:28 PM GMT on July 26, 2013

EPA Smack-Down Number Six
A federal court cashiers another illegal Obama regulation.





Link



Current Article
Why is Obama So Out of Touch?

By Larry Johnson on June 27, 2013 at 3:55 PM in Current Affairs

Why is Barack Obama now so obsessed about the constitutional right to participate in homosexual acts and shutdown coal production? Are those really the top priorities for this nation?


Link


This is why your vote counts, the devolution of your country could have been avoided. No hope, incorrect change.
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1056
572. JohnLonergan
7:26 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
From Neven's Forum Totay:


Gavin Schmidt detailed response on "economic time bomb"
« Reply #35 on: Today at 11:20:57 AM »
Reprint of a "post" sliced on tweeter by Gavin :
https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin

__________________________________


Some more context on Arctic methane release story

1) Methane is an important part of the anthropogenic radiative forcing over 20thC. Human caused increase from 0.7ppm to 1.8ppm

2) Methane emissions have a direct GHG effect, and they effect atmospheric chemistry and strat water vapour which have additional impacts

3) Direct forcing from anthropogenic methane ~0.5 W/m2, indirect effects add ~0.4 W/m2. (For ref: CO2 forcing is ~1.8W/m2)

4) natural feedbacks involving methane likely to be important in future - via wetland response to T/rain chng, atmos chem &, yes, arctic src

5) monitoring and analysis of atmos conc of CH4 is very important. However, despite dramatic Arctic warming and summer sea ice loss in recent decades, little change has been seen in atmos concentrations at high latitudes.

6) There are large stores of carbon in the Arctic, some stored as hydrates, some potentially convertible to CH4 by anaerobic resporation

7) there's evidence in deep time records of large, rapid exogenous inputs of carbon into climate system; leading theory relates this to CH4

8 ) it is therefore not silly or alarmist to think about the possibilities, thresholds and impacts for these kinds of events

9) in more recent past, there have been a number if times when Arctic (not necessarily globe) has been significantly warmer than today.

10) Most recently, Early Holocene, which had significantly less summer sea ice than even 2012. Earlier, Eemian 125kyrs ago was sig warmer

11) At neither of these times is there any evidence for CH4 emissions or concentrations in excess of base pre-industrial conditions.

12) this means that we are not currently near a threshold for dramatic CH4 releases. (Though we may get there)

13) Much of the concern re dramatic changes in Arctic methane come from one off surveys and poorly calibrated remote sensing

14) thus potential for Arctic CH4 to have threshold behaviour is real, but very lg scenario used in Nature comment is not realistic

15) We should be monitoring the Arctic better than we are, and we should be alert for 'surprises' in the greenhouse.

16) But we should not take what-if sensitivity experiments as predictions.

----------------
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3173
571. iceagecoming
7:19 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Crosby, ND set a record low temperature of 41 for Jul 26
Panama City, FL set a record low temperature of 73 for Jul 26
Bloomington, IN set a record low temperature of 55 for Jul 26
Jonesville, VA set a record low temperature of 55 for Jul 26
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1056
570. iceagecoming
7:14 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 562. cyclonebuster:
I could get by with a T shirt in some spots... Strike that...I mean many spots...

Weather for Greenland
Search Results
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Aasiaat, Greenland 46 �F 93% 29.71 in Light Drizzle Mist West at 8 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Angisoq, Greenland 39 �F 99% 30.02 in Fog WNW at 21 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Aputiteeq, Greenland 44 �F 54% 29.86 in Cloudy SE at 2 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Cape Harald Moltke, Greenland 35 �F 74% n/a Clear South at 6 mph Estimated Save
Cape Tobin, Greenland 54 �F 51% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy South at 8 mph 2:50 PM EGST Save
Carey Island, Greenland 38 �F 100% 29.61 in Cloudy SE at 8 mph 12:00 PM ADT Save
Daneborg, Greenland 55 �F 21% 29.77 in Mostly Cloudy ESE at 12 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Danmarkshavn, Greenland 43 �F 53% 29.76 in Partly Cloudy South at 10 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Hall Land, Greenland 48 �F 62% 29.42 in Mostly Cloudy South at 25 mph 9:00 AM MDT Save
Henrik Kroeyer Holme, Greenland 32 �F 87% 29.72 in Clear South at 8 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Ikermiit, Greenland 45 �F 71% 29.89 in Rain NW at 5 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Ikermiuarsuk, Greenland 44 �F 83% 29.86 in Fog SSE at 2 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Illoqqortoormiut, Greenland 54 �F 51% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy South at 8 mph 2:50 PM EGST Save
Ilulissat, Greenland 52 �F 76% 29.68 in Light Rain East at 8 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Kangerlussuaq, Greenland 55 �F 77% 29.68 in Mostly Cloudy SW at 2 mph 1:20 PM WGST Save
Kangilinnguit, Greenland 40 �F 92% n/a Rain SW at 9 mph Estimated Save
Kap Morris Jesup, Greenland 39 �F 81% 29.52 in Clear NE at 5 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Kitsissorsuit, Greenland 41 �F 100% 29.74 in Cloudy South at 6 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Kitsissut, Greenland 48 �F 87% 29.71 in Light Rain NW at 21 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Kulusuk, Greenland 46 �F 87% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy WSW at 7 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Maniitsoq, Greenland 43 �F 93% 29.77 in Light Rain ESE at 13 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Mittarfik Nuuk, Greenland 45 �F 87% 29.74 in Light Rain South at 25 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Narsarsuaq, Greenland 46 �F 93% 30.01 in Mostly Cloudy SW at 10 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Navy Operated, Greenland 28 �F 90% n/a Snow SW at 21 mph Estimated Save
Nerlerit Inaat, Greenland 54 �F 51% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy South at 8 mph 2:50 PM EGST Save
Nord, Greenland 37 �F 75% n/a Clear SSE at 11 mph Estimated Save
Nord Aws, Greenland 56 �F 41% 29.63 in Clear SSE at 6 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Nunarsuit, Greenland 40 �F 100% 30.02 in Rain SSW at 10 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Nuuk, Greenland 45 �F 87% 29.74 in Light Rain South at 25 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Nuussuaataa, Greenland 48 �F 100% 29.68 in Light Rain Drizzle SE at 5 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Paamiut, Greenland 41 �F 85% 29.92 in Light Rain SSE at 18 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Pituffik, Greenland 39 �F 93% 29.62 in Overcast WNW at 6 mph 12:10 PM ADT Save
Prins Christian Sund, Greenland 54 �F 59% 29.84 in Clear West at 20 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Qaanaaq, Greenland 32 �F 97% n/a Snow South at 13 mph Estimated Save
Qaarsut, Greenland 48 �F 100% 29.68 in Light Rain Drizzle SE at 5 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Qaqortoq, Greenland 46 �F 93% 30.01 in Mostly Cloudy SW at 10 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Sioralik, Greenland 43 �F 93% 29.77 in Light Rain ESE at 13 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Sisimiut, Greenland 48 �F 87% 29.71 in Light Rain NW at 21 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Sisimiut Mittarfia, Greenland 48 �F 87% 29.71 in Light Rain NW at 21 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Summit, Greenland 24 �F 96% in Snow SW at 23 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Tasiilaq, Greenland 46 �F 87% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy WSW at 7 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Ukiivik, Greenland 41 �F 98% 29.86 in Rain SSE at 34 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Upernavik, Greenland 45 �F 100% 29.71 in Mostly Cloudy Variable at 2 mph 12:50 PM WGST
Save







The snow has been falling in Argentina and Uruguay and soon will begin in Brazil. These places have seen snow in recent years, a throwback to the 1960s in much the same way as the cold and snow in the Northern Hemisphere has resembled the snowy 1960s.

Sorry guys, it doesn’t fly. Try the sun, which years ago, I was told by Hurd ‘Doc’ Willett led to periods of great amplification and persistence like we are seeing (near solar minima).

Indeed Hansen’s own modeler, Drew Shindell has shown the low solar (low UV) Maunder minimum led to widespread cold but Atlantic blocking in the models that included ozone and UV.


But should they agree with the Russian scientists that we are heading into a Maunder and it will have a significant impact, its all over for the movement. But if Festinger is right, look for them to find another excuse like particulates from China coal plants, just like the cults awaiting the spaceship to take them away say they must have miscalculated on the date and time and will find another day to meet. When they fail, they are forgotten. Remember the hype about the catastrophic solar event in 2012? The Millennium bug that cost trillions? Will we look back on the AGW movement that almost destroyed Europe’s economy and threatens the US and think of the 1980s to 2000s as the good old days with the climate optimum we should of enjoyed instead of wasting trillions to end?






Link
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1056
569. SteveDa1
6:26 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 564. RevElvis:
Federal appeals court rejects Texas, Wyoming challenge to EPA curbing greenhouse gases

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A federal appeals court on Friday rejected a legal challenge by Texas and Wyoming to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s efforts to implement greenhouse gas regulations.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, split 2-1, said that the states did not have standing to sue, while rejecting related claims made by industry groups.


RawStory.com


But we need more money! Don't you understand? And who cares about the environment?!
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
568. Birthmark
5:27 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Haven't posted this for a couple of days:

Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
567. cyclonebuster
5:26 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Or this...


Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
566. cyclonebuster
5:24 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Actually we looked more like this...


Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
565. cyclonebuster
5:21 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
RE: 550 Let's just adapt to this it happened before about 2 million years ago back when we looked like this...

North pole now a lake

Instead of snow and ice whirling on the wind, a foot-deep aquamarine lake now sloshes around a webcam stationed at the North Pole.

The meltwater lake started forming July 13, following two weeks of warm weather in the high Arctic. In early July, temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average over much of the Arctic Ocean, according to the National Snow & Ice Data Center.

Meltwater ponds sprout more easily on young, thin ice, which now accounts for more than half of the Arctic's sea ice. The ponds link up across the smooth surface of the ice, creating a network that traps heat from the sun. Thick and wrinkly multi-year ice, which has survived more than one freeze-thaw season, is less likely sport a polka-dot network of ponds because of its rough, uneven surface.

July is the melting month in the Arctic, when sea ice shrinks fastest. An Arctic cyclone, which can rival a hurricane in strength, is forecast for this week, which will further fracture the ice and churn up warm ocean water, hastening the summer melt. The Arctic hit a record low summer ice melt last year on Sept. 16, 2012, the smallest recorded since satellites began tracking the Arctic ice in the 1970s.


Link



...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
564. RevElvis
4:46 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Federal appeals court rejects Texas, Wyoming challenge to EPA curbing greenhouse gases

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A federal appeals court on Friday rejected a legal challenge by Texas and Wyoming to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s efforts to implement greenhouse gas regulations.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, split 2-1, said that the states did not have standing to sue, while rejecting related claims made by industry groups.


RawStory.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
563. RevElvis
4:00 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
NOAA goes 'live' with new weather supercomputers (7/25/2013)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Thursday switched on two new supercomputers that are expected to improve weather forecasting.

The "go live" switch over to the new systems was made today without any fanfare, just a box of donuts on hand to mark 18 months of preparation and testing. The new IBM systems are now responsible for producing forecast data that's relied on in the U.S. and around the world.

The agency had planned to go live next Tuesday, but strong storms now in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans prompted the decision to move the date up, said Ben Kyger, director of central operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) runs the two identical, or clone systems, one in Reston, Va., and in Orlando, Fla. They can switch over in about six minutes.

The supercomputers are each 213 teraflop systems, running a Linux operating system on Intel processors.

more at ComputerWorld.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
562. cyclonebuster
3:33 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
I could get by with a T shirt in some spots... Strike that...I mean many spots...

Weather for Greenland
Search Results
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Aasiaat, Greenland 46 F 93% 29.71 in Light Drizzle Mist West at 8 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Angisoq, Greenland 39 F 99% 30.02 in Fog WNW at 21 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Aputiteeq, Greenland 44 F 54% 29.86 in Cloudy SE at 2 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Cape Harald Moltke, Greenland 35 F 74% n/a Clear South at 6 mph Estimated Save
Cape Tobin, Greenland 54 F 51% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy South at 8 mph 2:50 PM EGST Save
Carey Island, Greenland 38 F 100% 29.61 in Cloudy SE at 8 mph 12:00 PM ADT Save
Daneborg, Greenland 55 F 21% 29.77 in Mostly Cloudy ESE at 12 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Danmarkshavn, Greenland 43 F 53% 29.76 in Partly Cloudy South at 10 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Hall Land, Greenland 48 F 62% 29.42 in Mostly Cloudy South at 25 mph 9:00 AM MDT Save
Henrik Kroeyer Holme, Greenland 32 F 87% 29.72 in Clear South at 8 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Ikermiit, Greenland 45 F 71% 29.89 in Rain NW at 5 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Ikermiuarsuk, Greenland 44 F 83% 29.86 in Fog SSE at 2 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Illoqqortoormiut, Greenland 54 F 51% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy South at 8 mph 2:50 PM EGST Save
Ilulissat, Greenland 52 F 76% 29.68 in Light Rain East at 8 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Kangerlussuaq, Greenland 55 F 77% 29.68 in Mostly Cloudy SW at 2 mph 1:20 PM WGST Save
Kangilinnguit, Greenland 40 F 92% n/a Rain SW at 9 mph Estimated Save
Kap Morris Jesup, Greenland 39 F 81% 29.52 in Clear NE at 5 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Kitsissorsuit, Greenland 41 F 100% 29.74 in Cloudy South at 6 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Kitsissut, Greenland 48 F 87% 29.71 in Light Rain NW at 21 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Kulusuk, Greenland 46 F 87% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy WSW at 7 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Maniitsoq, Greenland 43 F 93% 29.77 in Light Rain ESE at 13 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Mittarfik Nuuk, Greenland 45 F 87% 29.74 in Light Rain South at 25 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Narsarsuaq, Greenland 46 F 93% 30.01 in Mostly Cloudy SW at 10 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Navy Operated, Greenland 28 F 90% n/a Snow SW at 21 mph Estimated Save
Nerlerit Inaat, Greenland 54 F 51% 29.77 in Partly Cloudy South at 8 mph 2:50 PM EGST Save
Nord, Greenland 37 F 75% n/a Clear SSE at 11 mph Estimated Save
Nord Aws, Greenland 56 F 41% 29.63 in Clear SSE at 6 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Nunarsuit, Greenland 40 F 100% 30.02 in Rain SSW at 10 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Nuuk, Greenland 45 F 87% 29.74 in Light Rain South at 25 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Nuussuaataa, Greenland 48 F 100% 29.68 in Light Rain Drizzle SE at 5 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Paamiut, Greenland 41 F 85% 29.92 in Light Rain SSE at 18 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Pituffik, Greenland 39 F 93% 29.62 in Overcast WNW at 6 mph 12:10 PM ADT Save
Prins Christian Sund, Greenland 54 F 59% 29.84 in Clear West at 20 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Qaanaaq, Greenland 32 F 97% n/a Snow South at 13 mph Estimated Save
Qaarsut, Greenland 48 F 100% 29.68 in Light Rain Drizzle SE at 5 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Qaqortoq, Greenland 46 F 93% 30.01 in Mostly Cloudy SW at 10 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Sioralik, Greenland 43 F 93% 29.77 in Light Rain ESE at 13 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Sisimiut, Greenland 48 F 87% 29.71 in Light Rain NW at 21 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Sisimiut Mittarfia, Greenland 48 F 87% 29.71 in Light Rain NW at 21 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Summit, Greenland 24 F 96% in Snow SW at 23 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Tasiilaq, Greenland 46 F 87% 29.92 in Mostly Cloudy WSW at 7 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Ukiivik, Greenland 41 F 98% 29.86 in Rain SSE at 34 mph 1:00 PM WGST Save
Upernavik, Greenland 45 F 100% 29.71 in Mostly Cloudy Variable at 2 mph 12:50 PM WGST Save
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
561. cyclonebuster
3:30 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
OTEC,upwelling and kinetic energy combined is the solution to this...

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
560. goosegirl1
12:26 PM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 553. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will give 10 to 1 odds that the House has already picked out members of the America public that could not balance a checkbook to offer their "input" on this.


I work with money all day long... they won't have to search too far :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
559. RevElvis
6:28 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Antarctica’s permafrost is melting

Antarctic permafrost, which had been weathering global warming far better than areas around the North Pole, is starting to give way. Scientists have recorded some of it melting at rates that are nearly comparable to those in the Arctic.

Scientists used time-lapse photography and LiDAR to track the retreat of an Antarctic ice cliff over a little more than a decade. They reported Wednesday in the journal Scientific Reports that the cliff was “backwasting rapidly.” The permafrost that made up the cliff was found to be disappearing nearly 10 times more quickly than was the case during recent geological history. And the rate of melting is picking up pace.

Cliff-face measurements of the buried ice in the four-mile-long Garwood Valley revealed melt rates that shifted from a creeping annual rate of about 40,000 cubic feet per year over six milleniums, to more than 402,000 cubic feet last year alone. … (That’s a leap from the capacity of about eight standard railroad boxcars to 77.)

The scientists also monitored the weather at the cliff and found that rising air temperatures were not to blame for the melt. Rather, they think it was caused by growing amounts of dark debris on the surface of the ice and snow that absorbed the sun’s rays.

How did the debris get there? During sudden bursts of warmth brought to the area by strong winds from other regions, ice expanded and cracked and sometimes broke up, throwing the dark debris up to the surface.


more at Grist.org
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
558. RevElvis
4:41 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Blowout Raises Questions About Tar-Sands Oil (Op-Ed)

As new evidence is revealing that the blowout of a tar-sands well has been causing oil to leak for over four months — contaminating a large area of Canada's Boreal Forest and killing animals — a new report reveals that Alberta's regulatory system to prevent and enforce tar-sands operations is lax and failing.

The blowout from Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.'s Primrose tar-sands drilling operation was not revealed to the public until an anonymous government scientist leaked it to the press. According to a Mother Jones article, the spill — which has released at least 4,500 barrels of tar-sands oil — was reported to have started on May 21 and was still releasing oil as of Tuesday, July 23. The ongoing blowout, coupled with the report on the province's failed regulatory program, raises questions about oversight of the tar-sands industry — especially given that neither the Alberta government nor the company has confirmed the cause of the blowout, the rate of seepage or a plan to stop the spill. It also raises questions about this particular method of tar-sands extraction, called "in situ," which is projected to be the dominant way that the industry extracts tar sands in the coming years.

Tar-sands drilling operations require the injection of high-pressure steam into deep reservoirs, creating cracks in underground geological formations, and essentially turning the earth into an oven so that the bitumen can be melted out. Despite the fact that they tend to have significantly greater greenhouse gas emissions than mining, fragment vast swaths of land and use a tremendous amount of water, tar-sands drilling operations are often promoted by industry as the "environmental friendly" method of tar-sands extraction. It is estimated that 80 percent of tar sands can be accessed using in situ or drilling methods.

The anonymous scientist who broke the story to the Canadian media said, "Everybody [at the company and in government] is freaking out about this. We don't understand what happened. Nobody really understands how to stop it from leaking, or if they do, they haven't put the measures in place."


more at LiveScience.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
557. RevElvis
4:37 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Cruise to Set Sail to Investigate Ocean Acidification

The waters off the Pacific Northwest are becoming more acidic, making life more difficult for the animals that live there, especially oysters and the approximately 3,200 people employed in the shellfish industry.

Researchers from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will set sail Monday (July 29) on a monthlong research cruise off the U.S. and Canadian West Coast to see how ocean acidification is affecting the chemistry of the ocean waters and the area's sea life.

Ocean acidification occurs when greenhouse-gas emissions cause carbon dioxide to accumulate in the atmosphere and become dissolved in sea water, changing the water's chemistry and making it more difficult for coral, shellfish and other animals to form hard shells. Carbon dioxide creates carbonic acid when dispersed in water. This can dissolve carbonate, the prime component in corals and oysters' shells.

The world's oceans are 30 percent more acidic than they were before the Industrial Revolution, scientists estimate.


more at LiveScience.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
556. cyclonebuster
4:21 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Scientists watch Arctic cyclone chew up sea ice


A cyclone (top centre) forms over the Canadian Arctic in an Environment Canada NOAA satellite imagery taken at 15:42 Eastern time on Thursday July 25, 2013. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO

Enlarge Image

A cyclone (top centre) forms over the Canadian Arctic in an Environment Canada NOAA satellite imagery taken at 15:42 Eastern time on Thursday July 25, 2013. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO

Arctic scientists are watching in awe this week as a raging summer cyclone tears up what could become a record amount of rotting northern sea ice.

"We're really watching this year with a lot of fascination," said Matthew Asplin, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Manitoba.

Arctic cyclones are driven by low-pressure systems in which winds of up to 100 km/h blow counter-clockwise in spiral more than 1,000 kilometres across. They occur in both winter and summer, but are usually stronger in winter.

Cyclones are not unusual in the Arctic, but seem to be changing in recent years, said David Barber, one of Canada's top sea-ice experts.

"These cyclones are not getting more frequent, but they are getting deeper %u2014 which means stronger," he said.

And they're getting harder on sea ice, which they break up through wave action associated with high winds and through rainfall, which darkens the ice and makes it absorb more solar energy. The storms also bring up water from the depths, which is actually warmer than surface water.

Cyclones can destroy large amounts of ice very quickly.

"In 2009, we actually documented one of these events in which large, multi-year ice floes %u2014 Manhattan-sized %u2014 broke up in a matter of minutes," said Barber.

Last year, a particularly powerful cyclone is thought to have wiped out 800,000 square kilometres of ice. That contributed to record low sea-ice levels at the end of the 2012 melt year.

This year's storm over the Beaufort Sea formed about mid-week and is expected to die out on the weekend.

It isn't as strong as last year's, but the ice is thinner and weaker. As well, the ice has already been pummelled by earlier storms.

"The effects of (the storm) are nowhere near what we saw last August," said Asplin. "But because the ice is thinner and it's already been pre-conditioned, and because there's less volume, it's much more vulnerable to impacts from this sort of thing."

Barber said the ice is getting so weak that new categories have had to be created for it.

"We have a whole new class of sea ice in the Arctic, which we're calling 'decayed ice,'" he said.

"We started seeing it in 2009. It's extremely weak."

Barber said the research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen can do 13.5 knots in open water. Through decayed ice, it can do 13 knots.

Changing sea-ice cover is increasingly being linked to southern weather patterns. The jet stream, which strongly influences weather at mid-latitudes, is driven by temperature differences between the Arctic and the equator, a difference that shrinks with the sea ice.

Ice coverage is slightly above last year's record low but still well below the 30-year average.

Much remains unknown about the role of Arctic cyclones in the annual freeze-thaw cycle. Back when the sea was thick and lasted for years, cyclones tended to spread the ice out and actually increase its extent, said Julienne Stroeve of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. Now, when ice gets spread out, it simply breaks up and disappears.

"As our ice cover has thinned, some of our old rules are changing," said Stroeve.

Asplin said cyclones will be a big part of the research agenda when the Amundsen sets sail for the Arctic again later this month.

"This year has been very stormy. The month of August is definitely one to watch in the Arctic."


Link






...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
555. FLwolverine
3:57 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
I promised Naga5000 and yoboi I would contribute to the discussion of the Michigan emergency manager law (Detroit bankruptcy). My "contribution" became so long that I created my own blog post for it. Link

The first half is quoting the discussion between Naga, yoboi, and myself so I could preserve Naga's questions. The second half tries to answer those questions about the constitutionality of the current Act (not decided by the courts yet) and about certain powers of the EM (the article in the Huffington Post that Naga quoted did sort of overstate them).

What's not resolved, I think, is the basic morality - if I can use that word - of supplanting democratically elected officials with an appointed receiver (because that's what this emergency manager stuff is, actually: receivership). I come down on the side of permitting that receivership if adequate standards and protections are applied. Naga may not. Everyone is invited to the discussion.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2320
554. cyclonebuster
3:19 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 550. zampaz:
North Pole Web Cam


Link:http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/

Antarctic iceberg (may be old news)...

Link: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/v iew.php?id=81674


Santa's house sunk.....
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393
553. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:57 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Quoting 551. RevElvis:
A Battle Over The "Social Cost of Carbon"

A battle over the "social cost of carbon" is heating up between the White House and Congress faster than an atmosphere trapped beneath an overabundant layer of greenhouse gases.

In 2010 the White House convened a group of officials from across government to use computer models -- the most famous of which was designed by Yale economist William Nordhaus -- to estimate the future economic impact of climate change, a metric known as the social cost of carbon. The metric predicts the costs of damage being caused by carbon emissions, including "health, property damage, agricultural impacts, the value of ecosystem services, and other welfare costs of climate change," according to this year's Economic Report of the President.

This year, the metric was revised upward. And the higher the value for the social cost of carbon, the more benefits accrue to any rules the Environmental Protection Agency might implement to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. And higher benefits for any such rules would "make it easier for stricter standards to pass a cost-benefit analysis test," according to The Washington Post's Wonk Blog.

Critics in the House and elsewhere have said the modeling has been a closed-door process, with insufficient input from the American public, and are trying to prevent the agency from enacting any regulations that account for the social cost of carbon.

Grist's David Roberts, writing back in September, lays out these ideas alongside unrelated but comforting photos of otters (to ease the pain of having to think about this). He also explains why the federal government has repeatedly underestimated the social cost of carbon:

How much is it worth to us today to avoid climate disruption later this century? To understand how that question has typically been answered, you need to understand what economists call "discount rates," key parameters in the economic models used to assess climate policy costs. Such models inform policymaking and shape conventional wisdom, but their use of discount rates has led them to lowball the threat and recommend insufficient action to meet it.


article at HuffingtonPost.com


I will give 10 to 1 odds that the House has already picked out members of the America public that could not balance a checkbook to offer their "input" on this.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
552. RevElvis
2:53 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
Voters think Republican climate dissenters are ‘ignorant, out of touch or crazy,’ bipartisan poll finds

Results show risks that deniers in Congress pose to GOP as majority of younger constituents back Obama’s carbon plans

Republicans in Congress who reject the science behind climate change could soon be reduced to political fossils, with new polling on Wednesday suggesting three-quarters of young voters find such views “ignorant, out of touch or crazy”.

The bipartisan poll conducted for the League of Conservation Voters found solid 80% support among under-35 voters for Barack Obama’s climate change plan – and majority support even among those who oppose the president.

On the flip side the poll found three-quarters of voters, or 73%, would oppose members of Congress who stood in the way of Obama’s climate action plan.

The findings could prove awkward for Republicans in Congress who have adopted climate contrarianism as a defining feature.

Some 55% of Republicans in the House of Representatives and 65% of those in the Senate reject the science behind climate change or oppose action on climate change, according to an analysis by the Centre for American Progress.,,,




more at RawStory.com (Guardian)
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
551. RevElvis
1:17 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
A Battle Over The "Social Cost of Carbon"

A battle over the "social cost of carbon" is heating up between the White House and Congress faster than an atmosphere trapped beneath an overabundant layer of greenhouse gases.

In 2010 the White House convened a group of officials from across government to use computer models -- the most famous of which was designed by Yale economist William Nordhaus -- to estimate the future economic impact of climate change, a metric known as the social cost of carbon. The metric predicts the costs of damage being caused by carbon emissions, including "health, property damage, agricultural impacts, the value of ecosystem services, and other welfare costs of climate change," according to this year's Economic Report of the President.

This year, the metric was revised upward. And the higher the value for the social cost of carbon, the more benefits accrue to any rules the Environmental Protection Agency might implement to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. And higher benefits for any such rules would "make it easier for stricter standards to pass a cost-benefit analysis test," according to The Washington Post's Wonk Blog.

Critics in the House and elsewhere have said the modeling has been a closed-door process, with insufficient input from the American public, and are trying to prevent the agency from enacting any regulations that account for the social cost of carbon.

Grist's David Roberts, writing back in September, lays out these ideas alongside unrelated but comforting photos of otters (to ease the pain of having to think about this). He also explains why the federal government has repeatedly underestimated the social cost of carbon:

How much is it worth to us today to avoid climate disruption later this century? To understand how that question has typically been answered, you need to understand what economists call "discount rates," key parameters in the economic models used to assess climate policy costs. Such models inform policymaking and shape conventional wisdom, but their use of discount rates has led them to lowball the threat and recommend insufficient action to meet it.


article at HuffingtonPost.com
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
550. zampaz
1:14 AM GMT on July 26, 2013
North Pole Web Cam


Link:http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/

Antarctic iceberg (may be old news)...

Link: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/v iew.php?id=81674
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 903
549. bappit
10:29 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
Quoting 542. Daisyworld:

That seems like quite a significant finding. So, does that mean that:

a) When coming out of an ice age (presumably controlled by Milankovitch cycles), if there are warmer temps at the equator, then CO2 in the air will increase quite rapidly leading to more warming and more CO2 from the tropics and more warming--until some equilibrium is reached?

b) Then people come along and disturb the equilibrium by adding CO2 even more rapidly than before that even more warming occurs and again more CO2 from the tropics? And further positive feedbacks?

I wonder at what level does the CO2 production mechanisms of soil and vegetation become saturated, so to speak.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5958
548. Naga5000
8:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
Quoting 547. FLwolverine:
I can't participate in the Detroit discussion right now but I will later. Keep in mind tho that the city is a creature of the state; cities could not exist as legal entities without the state's authorization. I think that makes a difference


I won't be on later, but I look forward to reading it tomorrow. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3281
547. FLwolverine
7:42 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
I can't participate in the Detroit discussion right now but I will later. Keep in mind tho that the city is a creature of the state; cities could not exist as legal entities without the state's authorization. I think that makes a difference
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2320
546. yoboi
6:59 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
Quoting 545. Naga5000:


That's just it the cities do not ask for this, the governor just does it.

"Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder announced Tuesday that the state would appoint an emergency financial manager to Detroit. Beginning Monday, Washington D.C. bankruptcy lawyer Kevyn Orr will begin examining the city's finances in the hopes that in the next 18 months he can make a dent in its massive debts.

Detroit is only the latest city (and Michigan's largest) to come under control of an emergency financial manager.

Other cities have fallen under control of EFMs since PA 72 was introduced in 1990, with the aim of allowing the state to intervene in municipalities and school districts facing financial emergencies. Snyder strengthened the law when PA 4 came into effect in 2011, giving an emergency manager extended powers. State voters repealed PA 4 last year, but another law goes into effect in late March that gives an emergency manager the power to dismiss elected officials, abrogate labor contracts, sell off public assets and impose new taxes on residents." No taxation without representation, right? Link



wow that is scary.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
545. Naga5000
6:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
Quoting 544. yoboi:



I agree with you...it's wrong but the local gov must have asked for state help if they did then the state can step in an take control....plus look at it this way the governor is an elected offical also.....I think you will find that the local gov asked for state help. then they will have to abide by whatever help the state sends.....Interesting topic for sure....


That's just it the cities do not ask for this, the governor just does it.

"Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder announced Tuesday that the state would appoint an emergency financial manager to Detroit. Beginning Monday, Washington D.C. bankruptcy lawyer Kevyn Orr will begin examining the city's finances in the hopes that in the next 18 months he can make a dent in its massive debts.

Detroit is only the latest city (and Michigan's largest) to come under control of an emergency financial manager.

Other cities have fallen under control of EFMs since PA 72 was introduced in 1990, with the aim of allowing the state to intervene in municipalities and school districts facing financial emergencies. Snyder strengthened the law when PA 4 came into effect in 2011, giving an emergency manager extended powers. State voters repealed PA 4 last year, but another law goes into effect in late March that gives an emergency manager the power to dismiss elected officials, abrogate labor contracts, sell off public assets and impose new taxes on residents." No taxation without representation, right? Link
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3281
544. yoboi
6:42 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
Quoting 541. Naga5000:


A Declaration of Emergency in a natural disaster is a totally separate thing. Those are temporary. This law in Michigan allows rule by decree when the governor decides a "financial emergency" is occurring, which is unconstitutional. It violates the citizens right to vote in elected officials. The argument on if it's needed or not is moot, the real issue is wholly constitutional. Actually, I'm surprised Yoboi, you strike me as the "small government" type, this should be outrageous as it is a huge expansion of government powers against the will of the people.



I agree with you...it's wrong but the local gov must have asked for state help if they did then the state can step in an take control....plus look at it this way the governor is an elected offical also.....I think you will find that the local gov asked for state help. then they will have to abide by whatever help the state sends.....Interesting topic for sure....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2329
543. cyclonebuster
6:39 PM GMT on July 25, 2013
Quoting 542. Daisyworld:
Tropical Ecosystems Boost Carbon Dioxide as Temperatures Rise

NASA | July 24, 2013

NASA scientists and an international team of researchers have found tropical ecosystems can generate significant carbon dioxide when temperatures rise, unlike ecosystems in other parts of the world.

The researchers discovered a temperature increase of just 1 degree Celsius in near-surface air temperatures in the tropics leads to an average annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to one-third of the annual global emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation combined. In tropical ecosystems carbon uptake is reduced at higher temperatures. This finding provides scientists with a key diagnostic tool to better understand the global carbon cycle.

"What we learned is that in spite of droughts, floods, volcano eruptions, El Nio and other events, the Earth system has been remarkably consistent in regulating the year-to-year variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels," said Weile Wang, a research scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif., and lead author of a paper published Wednesday, July 24, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study provides support for the "carbon-climate feedback" hypothesis proposed by many scientists. This hypothesis asserts a warming climate will lead to accelerated carbon dioxide growth in the atmosphere from vegetation and soils. Multiple Earth system processes, such as droughts and floods, also contribute to changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate. The new finding demonstrates observed temperature changes are a more important factor than rainfall changes in the tropics.

The team used a state-of-the-art, high-performance computing and data access facility called NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) at Ames to investigate the mechanisms underlying the relationship between carbon dioxide levels and increased temperatures. The NEX facility allowed scientists to analyze widely available data of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and global air temperatures between 1959 and 2011, while studying outputs from several global dynamic vegetation models.

"Climate warming is what we know with certainty will happen under climate change in the tropics,," said Josep G. Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project in Canberra, Australia, and co-author on the paper. This implies that the release of carbon dioxide from the tropical ecosystems will very likely be accelerated with future warming.

Events that can temporarily influence climate, such as volcanic eruptions, may disturb the strength of the relationship between annual temperature and carbon dioxide growth for a few years, but the coupling always recovers after such events.

"The study really highlights the importance of long-term Earth observations for improving our understanding of the Earth system," said Rama Nemani, principal scientist at Ames for the NEX project." Conclusions drawn from analysis of shorter records could be misleading."

The study was supported by the Earth Science Division in the Science Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington.



OTEC,upwelling and kinetic energy can bring it back 1 or 3 degrees C easily if you want it to...Computers will verify...
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20393

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.