2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #54

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:30 AM GMT on August 04, 2015

...MONDAY AUGUST 3 2015 9:30 PM EDT...
The surface center of Invest 95-L has moved northeastward from Florida and into coastal Georgia...but its south side continues to produce rain over saturated northern Florida grounds and therefore flooding remains the immediate threat from 95-L. 95-L is expected to continue northeast along the SE US coast over the next 48 hours in the flow between the 1025 mb Atlantic ridge and 997 mb east Canada surface low...with the col...

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #53

By: NCHurricane2009, 3:54 AM GMT on August 03, 2015

...SUNDAY AUGUST 2 2015 11:55 PM EDT...
A cold front has been driven into the western Atlantic and northern Gulf of Mexico by what is currently the broad 996 mb surface low over eastern Canada. This is the same front that absorbed last week's frontal but tropical-like disturbance that sat over northern Florida during previous disucssions #45 to #51. Today...this front has generated yet another tropical-like circulation currently parked over northern Florida whi...

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #52

By: NCHurricane2009, 1:21 AM GMT on August 02, 2015

...SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015 9:22 PM EDT...
A vigorous tropical wave is currently located over west-central Africa and will enter the eastern tropical Atlantic in 96 hours (4 days). Its potential for development will depend on how much the tropical waves ahead of it moisten out the dry Saharan air layer presently seen in the bottom-center of the thermodynamics chart below. Currently the GFS computer model is the only model that suggests potential for development o...

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #51

By: NCHurricane2009, 2:18 AM GMT on August 01, 2015

...FRIDAY JULY 31 2015 10:18 PM EDT...
The 1011 mb surface low offshore of the southeastern US is located just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks and has become absorbed by the cold front driven by the 986 mb frontal cyclone over the eastern US and eastern Canada. Therefore tropical cyclone formation from the 1011 mb surface low is no longer possible.

Tropical surface low Invest 94-L currently located west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in t...

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Birdseye Discussion #50

By: NCHurricane2009, 4:06 AM GMT on July 31, 2015

...FRIDAY JULY 31 2015 12:06 AM EDT...
The 1012 mb surface low offshore of the southeastern US continues northeast in advance of the 985 mb frontal cyclone over the eastern US and eastern Canada. Development into a tropical cyclone is not likely due to the broad nature of the circulation and unfavorable northerly vertical shear induced by the east side of the upper ridge over the southern US (marked by blue H in the atmospheric features chart below). In the nex...

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