N3EG's WunderBlog

The Prediction

Mon, 8 Oct 2012 23:03:00 GMT

The latest forecast calls for the door to slam shut on October 12, only three days short of my prediction during summer. They're calling for 72 degrees on the 11th and a 40% rainy 54 degrees on the 12th, compared to my 65/52/rain 14th/15th prediction. Let's see what we actually get and when.Also keep in mind that this prediction was made only by using the last two years as analog years - back on August 13! Should I go ahead now and predict when summer starts next...
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I think I nailed the forecast, so far...

Thu, 27 Sep 2012 23:35:00 GMT

It's been 1.5 months since the last post, and summer has been hanging on. Long range shows no rain until at least October 5, and temperatures are still up in the 70s. That's just how it's gonna be - one day it's 65 and sunny, next day it's 52 and rain until next June.
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Outlook for the fall of 2012

Mon, 13 Aug 2012 21:58:00 GMT

My completely uneducated guesstimation for the upcoming weak El Nino winter: Moderate rain in October and November, heavy snow in December. In mid October, the door slams shut on warm weather and we have a colder winter than usual. In other words, it's an "I didn't move outta Philly for this crap" winter. Notice I didn't say fall or autumn...it goes right to winter this year. October 14, 65 degrees and sunny; October 15, 52 degrees and cloudy. Bam.
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Black Monday - WU sucked into the vortex

Mon, 2 Jul 2012 20:04:00 GMT

WU has been sold to TWC. What that means is still vague - Dr. Masters has mostly said that the WU part will remain separate from TWC in how it's run. The reality is that you don't buy something without having a hand in it, so it remains to be seen how much the climate will change. PWS data is sure to be shared, and this would be a good time to check the agreements on how your wunderphotos can legally be used by the website, now that it belongs to TWC. I don't mi...
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La Nina again: And now it really gets annoying...

Wed, 4 Jan 2012 00:29:00 GMT

Remember my last post? It was mostly correct. Next up, the last half of January through the end of February. My uneducated guesstimation: Colder, average to slightly low precipitation, and it will last long enough to be really annoying.A long-range guess for spring: Colder, above average precipitation, changing to summer around the third week in June. I remember one year in the late 1980s when we had a fire danger the fourth week of June. Sure was a long time...
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