MAweatherboy1's Blog

Speculation on Development Possibilities in the East Pacific and Atlantic

Tue, 21 May 2013 23:26:00 GMT

All is quiet right now in the global tropics, with no active tropical cyclones anywhere and no areas of interest being watched for development, and no development likely for the next few days at least. The next area to watch for tropical development will likely be the Eastern North Pacific basin, which has already seen one tropical storm this year, short lived Tropical Storm Alvin. Models, particularly the GFS and CMC, are hinting at the possibility of low pressur...
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Invest 90E May Develop, But No Threat To Land

Tue, 14 May 2013 23:35:00 GMT

Happy East Pacific Hurricane Season! Indeed, in just hours, the first official tropical weather outlook for the Eastern North Pacific basin will be issued by the National Hurricane Center, officially beginning the season which runs from May 15-Nov 30. The East Pacific couldn't quite wait for the start of its season, however, as yesterday the first invest of the season, 90E, formed. This is certainly an exciting moment, as it is a strong sign that Atlantic Hurrica...
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Invests Organizing in the Indian Ocean

Mon, 6 May 2013 21:32:00 GMT

As we begin this new week, there has been little change in the global tropics over the past few days. The focus for potential tropical development continues to be on the Indian Ocean, both the northern and southern part of the basin. The more imminent threat for development is in the southern Indian Ocean, where an area of low pressure at low latitude (less than 5 degrees) and far from land is organizing. This low is invest 94S, and is moving slowly to the SW. M...
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Two Indian Ocean Cyclones Likely to Develop Soon

Sat, 4 May 2013 12:36:00 GMT

We are now less than one month from the start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and less than two weeks away from the start of the Eastern North Pacific season. Both of these basins are currently quiet, however, with no development expected for at least the next 10 days. That is not the case in the Indian Ocean, however, as favorable atmospheric conditions, including a solid MJO pulse, are likely to lead to at least two cyclones forming in the next 5 days, wi...
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Imelda Organizing, Likely to Strengthen Further

Mon, 8 Apr 2013 22:50:00 GMT

After a lengthy stretch of quite in the global tropics, there has been one tropical cyclone active for the past few days, Cyclone 21S in the Southern Indian Ocean, which has been officially named as Imelda. As of the 5PM EDT advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Imelda is currently located about 755 nautical miles NE of La Reunion island, and is moving west at 9kts. The system's maximum 1 minute sustained winds are estimated to be 45kts by JTWC, or about...
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