Tropical Weather Discussion - August 27, 2012

By: Randy Bynon , 5:18 PM GMT on August 27, 2012

Share this Blog
2
+

Good afternoon folks!

Tropical Storm Isaac is churning across the Gulf this afternoon headed for an eventual landfall somewhere on the LA coast. Despite what appeared to be conditions favorable for intensification, Isaac has stubbornly remained a tropical storm. We won't complain. I think the single biggest reason Isaac hasn't been able to reach hurricane status has been its shear size. A storm that covers as much ocean as Isaac takes time to consolidate all that energy to the center of the storm. And Isaac is trying to do that. The central pressure has steadily dropped but it's doing so at a slow pace. The winds haven't kept pace with the pressure, remaining steadily around 40-50mph. I'll be surprised to see Isaac not at least make a minimal hurricane it will struggle to make much more than that.

The track forecast has proven to be a challenge, as anyone following this storm can attest. It hasn't surprised me to see this storm track further west than was at first expected. The real question now is how far west. The models are usually pretty accurate within the 48-72 hour point. The single most significant factor at the moment for the track forecast is the development of the high pressure ridge over the SE US. The 11am storm discussion from the hurricane center mentions the fact that this high appears to be building more than forecast. The circulation around the high could push the track further west than the current forecast is indicating.

At the moment, I think the current model solution looks reasonable but I think we can expect the track forecast to be nudged a bit further west over the course of the next two days before landfall.




Elsewhere, we should keep our eyes on the eastern Atlantic. A new wave off the African coast has caught NHCs eye and they give it a low chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. The GFS develops this wave fairly significantly in the central and western Atlantic by the end of the week. We'll keep an eye on that system.

Randy

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 13 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

13. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:16 PM GMT on May 31, 2013
LRandyB has created a new entry.
12. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
12:44 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
Quoting palmettobug53:
I see we have TD 14. Good Lord willin' and the creek don't rise, she'll be a fish storm.


If the good Lord ain't willing, you can bet the creek will rise!! :-) But yes, TD 14/Nadine looks like it will indeed be a fish storm!!
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
11. palmettobug53
2:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2012
I see we have TD 14. Good Lord willin' and the creek don't rise, she'll be a fish storm.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25181
10. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
12:55 PM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting palmettobug53:
Some labor for Labor Day, huh? Well, the alternative would be much worse.

I'll bet the crews from the base are about worn slap out. Hope their families all made it through Isaac without any more problems than you had.


I don't think anyone had any serious damage! It wasn't too bad a storm here. But the crews were wore out.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
8. palmettobug53
10:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
Some labor for Labor Day, huh? Well, the alternative would be much worse.

I'll bet the crews from the base are about worn slap out. Hope their families all made it through Isaac without any more problems than you had.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25181
7. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
We survived with no real damage, just a lot of tree stuff to pick up out of the yard! I'll have something to do this weekend! :-)
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
6. palmettobug53
11:49 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
I think we can expect the track forecast to be nudged a bit further west over the course of the next two days before landfall.

Boy, you were sure right about that. I went to bed last night after Isaac started making landfall. Got up this a.m. to find that he'd headed back and had been grinding west along the coast.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25181
5. CaicosRetiredSailor
5:17 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
From 10:00 am Wed

A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE CREWS OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO FLEW A TOTAL OF 34 HAZARDOUS MISSIONS INTO
ISAAC...WHICH RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TOTAL OF 95 CENTER FIXES.

FORECASTER STEWART

...we all add our thanks also Randy.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
4. palmettobug53
4:58 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
yeah, I figured it was nasty but glad to hear that you and yours are OK so far. It's also good to see you still have power. Or did at the time you made that last post.

How much surge or high water levels have you gotten at your house?

We got hit by some of Isaac's outlying tropical moisture yesterday. Flooded the heck out of us.

I thought I'd never get home.

Had over 6 inches in my rain gauge.

Here's an article w/photos from our paper this a.m.:
After Rain Causes Gridlock, More Bad Weather Expected.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25181
3. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
4:19 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
Quoting palmettobug53:
Randy, I'm wondering if you really are sitting on your porch watching this, after all?

What's amazing me is that I'm seeing lights in NOLA on TWC and there's even traffic and people walking around the Bourbon St cam on Earthlinks. It doesn't even look like a storm is going on, other than the fact that it's wet.


Off and on, yes, been out on the porch. Not real bad here but the weather is indeed nasty. Surge is about 6-8 feet at my house!
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
2. palmettobug53
1:38 AM GMT on August 29, 2012
Randy, I'm wondering if you really are sitting on your porch watching this, after all?

What's amazing me is that I'm seeing lights in NOLA on TWC and there's even traffic and people walking around the Bourbon St cam on Earthlinks. It doesn't even look like a storm is going on, other than the fact that it's wet.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25181
1. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
5:14 PM GMT on August 28, 2012
No real new news with this storm today! Isaac is still being stubborn about upgrading to hurricane! Dry air is entraining into the center of the storm hindering intensification but pressure haas steadily dropped. Isaac has a short window of opportunity to spin up to hurricane. I still think it may do so but it will be a minimal hurricane.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012

Viewing: 13 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About LRandyB

I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

Local Weather

Overcast
64 °F
Overcast