Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

July hurricane outlook

Thu, 2 Jul 2009 19:26:00 GMT

Atlantic tropical cyclone activity typically picks up a bit during the first half of July. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, seven of 14 years (50%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July ...
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New $50 million hurricane research center: a bad idea

Wed, 1 Jul 2009 13:28:00 GMT

Hurricane track forecasts have improved by about 50% over the past twenty years, which has undoubtedly saved many lives and billions of dollars. These forecast improvements have primarily resulted from the investment made in hurricane research, which has been funded at approximately $50 million per year over that period. To me, it is unfathomable that our nation spends so little on scientific research that provides such an incredible value. The President's National ...
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The 6 lost Hurricane Hunter missions, Part III: Typhoon Doris, 1953

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 13:43:00 GMT

The tropics are quiet right now, as the "invest 93" disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula has dissipated, and no computer models are showing any Atlantic tropical storm formation over the next seven days. Thus, it's a good time to continue with my series on the six typhoon/hurricane hunter missions that never returned.The third typhoon hunter mission lost occurred on December 16, 1953, during a penetration by a Navy PB4Y-2S (Bu No 59176) into Typhoon Doris. The air...
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Much Ado About Nothing: Invest93L

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:29:00 GMT

Hi, this is Rob Carver, again filling in for Jeff Masters. Invest93L is still present as of the 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, but I'm extremely doubtful that it will reach even tropical depression status. Invest93L's presentation on satellite imagery does not project the image of a strengthening storm. Convection, what there is of it, appears to be anchored over the Yucatan Straits and is not following the low-level circulation center. Also, microwave imag...
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A late look at Invest93L

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 06:52:00 GMT

Hi everybody, this is Rob Carver, R&D Scientist for Wunderground, filling in for Jeff Masters. Summary of the situationIn the Tropical Weather Outlook NHC has tagged a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean Sea as Invest93L and believes that it has a 30-50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. As of now (11 PM PDT, June 26), the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area on June 28. The track models have Invest93L moving t...
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