Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Bertha slowly intensifies, continues west-northwest

Fri, 4 Jul 2008 12:22:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Bertha has slowly intensified overnight, with new heavy thunderstorm activity building up around the center. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now slightly below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms, and this is limiting Bertha's intensification. This morning's 4:01am EDT QuikSCAT pass revealed top winds of about 30 mph, but the satellite was not able to reliably detect Bertha's strongest winds, since QuikSCAT does poorly...
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Tropical Storm Bertha forms--and sets a record

Thu, 3 Jul 2008 15:18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Bertha is here. Overnight, a significant amount of heavy thunderstorm activity built up around the center, aided by Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) about 26°C (1°C above average for this date). This temperature is right at the threshold of where tropical storms can form. Also aiding the storm is 5-10 knots of wind shear. Bertha has good organization and a favorable environment for intensification, and should continue to slowly intensify today. There...
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African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution

Wed, 2 Jul 2008 13:40:00 GMT

A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm form...
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African disturbance 92L could develop into tropical depression

Tue, 1 Jul 2008 18:55:00 GMT

A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) moved off the coast of Africa last night, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. Th...
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July Atlantic hurricane outlook

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:31:00 GMT

The first half of July is usually a quiet period in the Atlantic for tropical cyclone formation. Since 1995, six of 13 years (46%) have had a named storm form during the first half of July. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, We...
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