Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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1038. gthsii
5:01 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
( dictated, and typed by a passing vagrant ) -- hehe
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1036. pottery2
1:01 PM AST on July 12, 2007
Good quest. stormybil......
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1035. Thundercloud01221991
4:58 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
on that radar image click the 1 hour loop with 1 hour forecast then click play and it shows the center opening up
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1034. hcubed
11:59 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
Agreed. Politics over.

Japan Meterology Agency Link

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1033. stormybil
4:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
is this talk true about a hurricane going to so fla. where is it suppose to come from .
1032. Thundercloud01221991
4:55 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
looks like the worse part is going to go right over the islands
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1031. pottery2
12:56 PM AST on July 12, 2007
Because politics run / ruin peoples lives ?? I dunno............
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1030. benirica
4:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
ok the met in PR is back on the wave over at 40W's case...
disorganized but keeping its identity which be it a system or not by monday it will bring about 24hours of rain.
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1029. wederwatcher555
4:53 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Why does every good forum inevitably turn into a political discussion?
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1028. EdMahmoud
4:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
*******************************




Super-Typhoon Man-Yi now approaching US bases on Okinawa.

Naha Airport now reporting sustained tropical storm force conditions. East winds 36 mph ( 58 km/hr) gusting to 59 mph ( 95 km/hr) with light rain. I suspect the first power lines are starting to go down now.


Man-Yi now in range of the Okinawa weather radar!


*******************************
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1027. pottery2
12:50 PM AST on July 12, 2007
OOOOOOOOOhh!!
American Politics !

I'm biting my tongue, and sitting on my fingers so they stay away from the keyboard.

( dictated, and typed by a passing vagrant )
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1026. bobw999
12:52 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Oh ok gthsii. That is very true. Now back to the weather.
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1022. gthsii
4:50 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Yeah but see if they found Bin Laden then the war effort would be over

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let me rephrase that: he wouldn't have a compelling reason to continue the war. It all started in an effort to find Bin Laden.
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1021. bobw999
12:48 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Yeah but see if they found Bin Laden then the war effort would be over

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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1019. ClearH2OFla
12:46 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
I agree Nash
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1018. cantstopme15
4:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
k thanks.
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1017. Patrap
11:44 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
There is no link..only 1 model showing a TD of 1008mb off of Fla in a week or more...go back to preparing.Check back in 72hours..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
1016. gthsii
4:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Yeah but see if they found Bin Laden then the war effort would be over and Bush's friends in the military-industrial complex wouldn't have the $126 billion a year windfall that they currently enjoy. Think about that folks - $126 BILLION dollars for one year of military effort. My oh my...what significant things we could be doing to benefit ALL mankind with that kind of money. Even if we just gave that money to countries that HATE us, we wouldn't have to worry about enemies...they'd all love us.
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1015. hcubed
11:44 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
"Posted By: randommichael at 11:39 AM CDT on July 12, 2007.

Yeah that is a bit harsh. I'd rather have Hillary than some of the other people running."


Oh lord, no. That's it, I'm off till Monday. Need a stiff drink to settle my nerves about THAT thought...

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1012. bobw999
12:43 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Hurricane hitting Florida Link

Read this to find out why it has pressure at 1008 Link
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1011. cantstopme15
4:42 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Yea. Can some one please post thel ink that shows a hurricane hitting Fl?
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1010. Patrap
11:40 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
Naha, Observed



Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 73 F / 23 C
Wind: 36 mph / 57 km/h / 15.9 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 59 mph / 94 km/h / 26.2 m/s
Pressure: 28.91 in / 979 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 85 F / 30 C
Visibility: 3.7 miles / 6.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 900 ft / 274 m
Mostly Cloudy 2000 ft / 609 m
(Above Ground Level)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
1009. msuwxman
4:39 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Can anyone post a link to the graphics showing it as a hurricane hitting Florida and then the Gulf?
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1008. Patrap
11:39 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
1007. MahFL
12:37 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
50 mph sustained winds now on Okinawa.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1004. Patrap
11:35 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
O gee..here it comes..Look..The admin is a failure we all know it.No Grief lost on his woes.Bush is a MAn..without the peoples support . Period. The quicker he goes by the wayside ,The quicker the Nation can move on.
Hell..it took his admin 5-6 days to Find New Orleans.
How can he save Baghdad when the Admin cant restore One American City?
Its all moot. A 20 something approval rating says it all.Done ..fini..Lamest Quack other than Aflac..Now.
Back to the weather..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
1003. gthsii
4:37 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
oh nash...that was harsh
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1000. bobw999
12:34 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Before this blog turns political, I think that we should either A) End the discussion or B) Move the discussion to another blog.
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999. MahFL
12:14 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
I think the Graphical TWO is an excellent idea. Also Bush is nuts.....
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
998. bobw999
12:32 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
"Posted By: randommichael at 11:18 AM CDT on July 12, 2007.

Well, lets say modern history."

Truman, Nixon, Carter, Clinton.


What did Clinton and Carter do wrong?
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996. bobw999
12:29 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Lets not forget that the US is the one that started Al Qaeda back in the 80's to fight against the Soviet Union. Even after the Soviets left we still funded them.

Thats my political statement of the day. I will go back to lurking now.
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995. hcubed
11:19 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
"Posted By: randommichael at 11:18 AM CDT on July 12, 2007.

Well, lets say modern history."


Truman, Nixon, Carter, Clinton.
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994. anvilhead
9:28 AM PDT on July 12, 2007
Now if u r also wondering what cap is its a layer tjhat suppreses convection.
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993. gthsii
4:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
The latest watervapor image of that wave in CATL is showing it being elongated north-souht...sort of being pinched in the middle...looks worse at this point than any time over the last two-three days
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992. pottery2
12:22 PM AST on July 12, 2007
Good afternoon

Whats up with the wave at 38 n ?
It seems to be looking pretty disorganised.
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991. AdamGirard
12:28 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
I've heard something from Afghanistan. Al Qaeda is back to its pre-9/11 strength. AP reported thats what the new National Intelligence Estimate will say this week.

Anyway, the weather community has actually had it pretty good with funding for satellites before, it has just started recently to be neglected it seems. I mean when else have you heard the weather community complain about not being able to launch a satellite?
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990. benirica
4:23 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
38W, wave is variating in its energy, not much said or expected from it except that it will bring rain late sunday into monday.
well thats that, we still have to wait and see i guess.
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988. AdamGirard
12:24 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
whoops, typo, I meant to Mars and the moon again...but the rest of it stands. I'm not trying to start a debate or Bush bashing but it is reasonable to think he is somewhat responsible.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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