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Tornado Risk Amping Up This Week and Beyond

By: Bob Henson , 4:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2017

Spring began in the Northern Hemisphere at 6:28 am EDT Monday, and the U.S. atmosphere seems to have gotten the memo. A multi-day stretch of severe weather should kick off by late Thursday or Friday. There are hints that the pattern will remain stormy off and on through next week, with upper-level energy expected to remain fairly progressive and the Gulf of Mexico supplying ample moisture.

Widespread damage from Southeast freeze
At least 90 percent of the peach crop in South Carolina (the nation’s top peach producer behind California, with a typical crop value of $90 million) was wiped out by freezing temperatures late last week, according to the state’s agriculture commissioner. The state’s wheat and corn fields also suffered heavy damage, reported WISTV. A less severe freeze in Georgia may have ruined anywhere from 25 to 75 percent of that state’s peach crop. Blueberries across the Southeast also experienced major damage, as summarized by Louisville, KY, broadcast meteorologist John Belski. It dropped to 25°F in Gainesville, FL, on Thursday morning, the coldest reading for so late in the year in more than a century of Gainesville records. Jacksonville’s 28°F was also a record for so late in the year. Update: Total crop losses in South Carolina and Georgia could approach $1 billion, according to an AP report filed Monday afternoon.

Fruit trees that budded and blossomed weeks ahead of schedule took a major hit across the mid-South during last week’s freeze. Temperatures that dipped to 21°F on Wednesday and 22°F on Thursday in Louisville spelled a hasty end to the city’s pear blossoms. “I have never seen the blooms go from white to brown while still on the trees,” Belski said.

In Washington, D.C., a large portion of the renowned Tidal Basin cherry blossoms were toasted by the deep freeze, but some of the less-developed buds (about half of the total, according to the National Park Service) apparently made it through. The survivors are now expected to transition quickly into peak bloom later this week, well ahead of the March 25 opening ceremony of the National Cherry Blossom Festival.


Figure 1. Visitors make their way through a deflating lineup of flash-frozen cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C.’s Tidal Basin on Saturday, March 18, 2017. Cold weather killed half of the blossoms on Washington's famous cherry trees just as they were approaching peak bloom. Image credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon.

Major pattern shift will usher in severe weather
Marginally severe storms are possible across parts of Indiana and Illinois on Monday and the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, as a spoke of energy rotates around a upper-level low sweeping through eastern Canada. The bigger event will come later this week as the upper-level pattern shifts back toward a Pacific-dominated regime. Several inches of rain and major mountain snows are headed for parts of California, Oregon, and Washington as one storm swings through on Tuesday/Wednesday and a stronger one around Friday/Saturday.

The first upper-level wave in this sequence will reach the Great Plains by late Thursday. Low-level moisture will be rapidly returning from the Gulf, but it’s not yet clear whether enough instability will be on hand to support severe weather. If there is, the focal point would be along a strong dryline expected to be over the High Plains of western KS/OK/TX by late Thursday. A more robust severe threat appears likely for Friday over eastern TX/OK into AR/LA, and on Saturday across parts of MS/AL/GA/FL, as the system marches east into more-unstable air. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined both regions with a 15% likelihood of severe weather for Friday and Saturday. I’d expect those odds to rise as the timing and locations become clearer through the week.


Figure 2. The 7-day precipitation forecast issued on Monday morning, March 20, 2017, reflects increased Pacific energy that is expected to generate heavy rain and mountain snow on the U.S. West Coast and fire off one or more rounds of severe weather across the Southern Plains and Southeast. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

The next multi-day round of severe weather will likely erupt with the second wave in the series, in tandem with the gradual establishment of a upper-level trough in the western U.S. Models are struggling with the evolution of these features, although recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF models tend to agree on a pattern that would favor severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains of TX/OK for at least a day or two early next week.

Wildfire also a threat this week; Boulder dodges a bullet
Fire danger may hit critical levels on Thursday and Friday as high winds and warm, dry air sweep across parts of NM/CO/TX as part of the first central U.S. storm. The landscape is drying quickly in this region following a very warm, dry February and early March. Moderate to severe drought now covers most of eastern CO, western KS, and northern OK, according to last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor.

After setting a record high of 80°F on Saturday, Boulder, CO, had a major scare on Sunday: a fire that erupted just west of town on Saturday night swelled to just over 100 acres before it was largely contained by late Sunday. More than 1000 people were under mandatory evacuation orders, and a pre-evacuation zone extended nearly to downtown. Nationwide, the 2.06 million acres burned in wildfires from January 1 to March 17 is by far the largest amount burned by mid-March in data going back to 2007.


Figure 3. Smoke rises from a wildfire on Sunday morning, March 19, 2017, near the west edge of Boulder, CO. Image credit: Seth Frankel via AP.

Extending severe weather outlooks to three weeks: Year 3
Meteorologists in a multi-institution effort based at the College of DuPage have embarked on their third year of providing generalized guidance on the likelihood of U.S. severe weather up to three weeks in advance. The Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF) are released each Monday, featuring outlooks for week 2 (the week beginning the following Monday) and week 3. For each forecast week, ERTAF indicates whether the likelihood of U.S. tornadoes is above, near, or below the climatological average, together with a confidence rating (high, medium, or low).

The technique is based on atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), which relates to the pace at which momentum imparted by Earth’s spin is being transferred to higher latitudes (see Figure 4 below). Gensini and colleagues employ an AAM-related index called the global wind oscillation (GWO), which is broken into eight phases similar to the daily Madden-Julian oscillation index. When AAM is relatively low, we’re more likely to see upper-level troughs in the U.S. West and ridging in the Southeast, a favorable setup for springtime severe weather.


Figure 4. Angular momentum is transferred from the tropics to midlatitudes as air rotating more quickly at the tropics (because of Earth’s larger diameter) ascends and then descends at midlatitudes, transferring momentum to the surface. Image credit: UCAR/COMET Program.

Gensini and colleague Alan Marinaro (Northern Illinois University) demonstrated the utility of their approach in a 2015 Monthly Weather Review paper. That same year, they introduced the ERTAF, which performed very well: 10 of 16 two-week outlooks, and 10 of 15 three-week outlooks, correctly specified whether activity would be above, below, or near the climatological norm for that week (with “normal” defined as between 75% and 125% of the weekly average number of tornadoes). The forecasts were a bit more challenging in 2016, but 6 of the 13 two-week outlooks and 5 of 12 three-week outlooks were on target, and only 4 of the 25 outlooks erred by more than 50% (e.g., by calling for above-average activity when below-average activity occurred, or vice versa). The ERTAF website includes all of the verification statistics for 2015, 2016, and 2017 thus far, based on SPC preliminary tornado totals.

For the week beginning March 26, ERTAF’s six forecasters are calling for an above-average likelihood of tornadoes with high confidence. “We all agreed week 2 is going to be above average. It was a slam dunk,” Gensini told me. The current week-3 outlook, valid April 2-8, is also for above-average activity but with low confidence. “At that range, we’re using primarily statistical analogs, but you only have the realm of what’s been historically observed. Week 2 is where we can couple the statistical and dynamical approach. In terms of subseasonal forecasting, this is really low-hanging fruit.”


Remembering Matt Parker
The U.S. meteorological enterprise suffered a major blow on Friday with the untimely loss of Matthew Parker (Savannah River National Laboratory), who died in his sleep on Wednesday night. Matt had just begun a one-year term in January as president of the American Meteorological Society. However, he had been heavily involved as president-elect in 2016 and was a key player in many other AMS activities before then. A native of Ohio, Matt spent more than 27 years at DOE’s Savannah River National Laboratory after completing his bachelor’s and master’s degrees at North Carolina State University.

I always enjoyed running into Matt at AMS annual meetings, though we never had a chance to work closely together. "He was not just a colleague but a close friend that has stayed in my family's home," said Dr. Marshall Shepherd, past-president of the AMS and host of The Weather Channel's WxGeeks, in a weather.com article by Jon Erdman. "He was as committed as anyone I know to the weather enterprise and bringing academia, government, and private sector together,” Shepard added.

“This is an enormous loss not just for the AMS family but for the entire scientific community,” said Keith Seitter, AMS Executive Director. “Matt was deeply admired for his commitment to the AMS community. He was a leader and a friend, and we will all miss him tremendously.” 

Succeeding Parker at the helm of AMS for the remainder of this year will be Dr. Roger Wakimoto (National Science Foundation), who was this year’s president-elect for 2018.

We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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71. wunderkidcayman
11:38 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 68. StormTrackerScott:



Look at this Robert. Nino 1&2 now over 3C!




uh huh... sure...

using CPC 1+2 is 2.6C
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
70. wunderkidcayman
11:35 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 67. StormTrackerScott:

Good Morning Wunderkid, You are wrong about a El-Nino not beginning to materialize. Just take a look below of the Sea surface temps across the Indian Ocean. We have seen a dramatic reversal in recent weeks with major cooling near Australia and major warming near Africa this signature is the kiss of death for any La-Nina or Neutral Enso. This event is throwing many in the scientific weather community for a loop and this event has just begun.

For example you have Michael Ventric which uses his Enso Index which clearly shows La-Nina in the atmosphere but what has happened recently has been very unusual with a lack of WWB we have seen dramatic shifts across the Pacific many from the East when typically these changes start in the west. Just take a gander at this sea surface layout across the Globe and you can't honestly say that El-Nino is NOT materializing.

With a warming Globe we are seeing something this year that is very rare with respects to this El-Nino infact may models show El-Nino in place during April infact its getting close now. As for the atmospheric conditions they will catch up to what is going on across the Pacific as there is usually a lag.



Bom Enso model


CFSv2



lol this is coming from someone who said last year would have an El Nino

give it up

look this year its gonna be either La Nina or Neutral this year and by a stroke of 1 in 65 or so luck we do get an El Nino it will be weak and likely a Modoki El Nino
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
69. RobertWC
11:24 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Intense storms over parts of the New South Wales north coast have flooded farmland and damaged crops.


The community of New Italy, near Woodburn, received almost half a metre of rain on Saturday alone, while Dorrigo had 430 millimetres over the weekend. ....................... Mr McCormack said a fall of 443 millimetres at New Italy resulted in water backing up in places that had not been flooded for years.

Link
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68. StormTrackerScott
11:15 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 66. RobertWC:

FLOODS IN PERU 2017. DISASTROUS LANDSLIDES 2017


Look at this Robert. Nino 1&2 now over 3C!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
67. StormTrackerScott
11:13 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Good Morning Wunderkid, You are wrong about a El-Nino not beginning to materialize. Just take a look below of the Sea surface temps across the Indian Ocean. We have seen a dramatic reversal in recent weeks with major cooling near Australia and major warming near Africa this signature is the kiss of death for any La-Nina or Neutral Enso. This event is throwing many in the scientific weather community for a loop and this event has just begun.

For example you have Michael Ventric which uses his Enso Index which clearly shows La-Nina in the atmosphere but what has happened recently has been very unusual with a lack of WWB we have seen dramatic shifts across the Pacific many from the East when typically these changes start in the west. Just take a gander at this sea surface layout across the Globe and you can't honestly say that El-Nino is NOT materializing.

With a warming Globe we are seeing something this year that is very rare with respects to this El-Nino infact may models show El-Nino in place during April infact its getting close now. As for the atmospheric conditions they will catch up to what is going on across the Pacific as there is usually a lag.



Bom Enso model


CFSv2
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66. RobertWC
11:06 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
FLOODS IN PERU 2017. DISASTROUS LANDSLIDES 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
65. wunderkidcayman
10:57 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 62. islander101010:

interesting the models keeps the action north of the western carib again this yr


looking at SSTA trends over past few weeks to couple months if trends continue

MDR, Caribbean, GOM, and US E Coast is where all the action will be and the Bahamas, Northern Tropical Atlantic, and Sub Tropical Atlantic will be left out this year

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64. wunderkidcayman
10:47 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 62. islander101010:

interesting the models keeps the action north of the western carib again this yr


what are you talking about
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63. wunderkidcayman
10:32 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
btw me talking about 2011 and possible La Nina return idea

2011 also had similar warming off of Peru as is occurring now
2011 had similar cooler anomalies in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (Northeast and SouthEast) as now ((although 2011 had drastically cooler and wide spreading anomalies likely due to fact the 2010/11 Nina event was much stronger than 2016/17 Nina event))
2011 had cooler waters in the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska similar to now (2017 has the cooler waters covering more of the GOA than 2011)
2011 Sub Surface Anomaly profiles are the same now (despite the actual anomaly values being steeper in both warm and cool during 2011)



now the differences between 2011 and now
La Nina in 2010/2011 was stronger
the 10/11 event ended later and to that Neutral conditions started later
the cool anomalies we larger in size in 2011
the sub surface anomaly gradient was much steeper in both warm and cool


Surface Anomalies
2011 during Neutral ENSO



2017 (now) during Neutral ENSO



Sub-Surface Anomalies

2011 during Neutral ENSO



2017 (now) during Neutral ENSO

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62. islander101010
10:30 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
interesting the models keeps the action north of the western carib again this yr
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61. islander101010
10:27 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
r.i.p forecaster Parker. sad to see younger folks than me dying. happening a lot nowadays
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60. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:23 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW XX
3:12 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.3S 116.8E or about 590 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland of Western Australia
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59. wunderkidcayman
7:13 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
This Doesn't look like an El Nino is coming







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58. wunderkidcayman
6:54 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:



Quoting 21. Ed22:

My thinking, No El nino.
Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



This does not look to me like an El Nino. I am dumbfounded on what it might be. The ocean side of El Nino is an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave which propagates along the thermocline. Kelvin waves cannot, for dynamical reasons, propagate west and thermocline disturbances that originate on the east side of the pacific basin, propagate west as a type of rossby wave. But I don't know what is going on here and solicit comment from oceanographers (who worked out the orignal Kelvin Wave theory in the 1970s)


my thoughts
I think it will be neutral then go back to La Nina like 2011

my other thoughts on possibility is Neutral and I am really doubting the idea of an El Nino but f any kinda El Nino it would be a weak Modoki El Nino

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57. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:43 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:06 PM WST March 21 2017
===========================

System #1
---------------

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650 km north northwest of port Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara coast during Friday.

The environment is not extremely favorable for development into a tropical cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday before landfall.

From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE

System #2
---------------

The monsoon trough lies along 12.0S between Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low is expected to form in the trough near 12.0S 95.0-100.0E (Cocos Islands vicinity) on Wednesday but should move away to the southeast. The system is expected to develop on Thursday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on Friday over open waters.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Friday: MODERATE
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56. swflurker
5:26 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 50. ozelloslim:

Pardon my inability to find the world maps of tropical cyclones. Where are they? What do I click to access these maps that have been readily avalible at the top of the opening page. Please help me.



I have the old WU Radar bookmarked.
Link

A couple of clicks on the right side menu will get you there.
Link
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55. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:57 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 54. awedbynature:

I like the idea of the teenagers suing the US for evidence of Exxon's knowledge of climate change. If they get it, wouldn't that imply that Exxon went ahead with their "experiment" of continuing their practice without informing those who would be affected? I wonder if lawsuits citing the Nuremberg code could hold corporations (persons in the US) and/or our government accountable. That could help put pressure on to turn things around. 'The first tenet of the code is very clear: "The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential."'

Another angle would be crimes against humanity -- according to wiki: They are not isolated or sporadic events, but are part either of a government policy (although the perpetrators need not identify themselves with this policy) or of a wide practice of atrocities tolerated or condoned by a government or a de facto authority. Murder, massacres, dehumanization, genocide, human experimentation, extrajudicial punishments, death squads, forced disappearances, military use of children, kidnappings, unjust imprisonment, slavery, cannibalism, torture, rape, and political or racial repression may reach the threshold of crimes against humanity if they are part of a widespread or systematic practice.

I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me there would be a case to be made if it's not already happening.


The biggest legal issue that Exxon faces on this now is the withholding of information that Exxon has on its own studies of climate change from its shareholders. This is intent to deceive investors in order to profit. I am not a lawyer either, but this is my understanding of what the current case is involved in.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
54. awedbynature
4:17 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
I like the idea of the teenagers suing the US for evidence of Exxon's knowledge of climate change. If they get it, wouldn't that imply that Exxon went ahead with their "experiment" of continuing their practice without informing those who would be affected? I wonder if lawsuits citing the Nuremberg code could hold corporations (persons in the US) and/or our government accountable. That could help put pressure on to turn things around. 'The first tenet of the code is very clear: "The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential."'

Another angle would be crimes against humanity -- according to wiki: They are not isolated or sporadic events, but are part either of a government policy (although the perpetrators need not identify themselves with this policy) or of a wide practice of atrocities tolerated or condoned by a government or a de facto authority. Murder, massacres, dehumanization, genocide, human experimentation, extrajudicial punishments, death squads, forced disappearances, military use of children, kidnappings, unjust imprisonment, slavery, cannibalism, torture, rape, and political or racial repression may reach the threshold of crimes against humanity if they are part of a widespread or systematic practice.

I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me there would be a case to be made if it's not already happening.
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53. Some1Has2BtheRookie
3:33 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
I was listening to the radio today at 5:00 PM CST to catch the news. The meteorologist opened with, "..with today being the last day of Spring..". Seriously. This is what he said. I highly suspect that he was looking at the forecast temperatures for this week and not at the calendar.
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52. BaltimoreBrian
2:41 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Quoting 50. ozelloslim:

Pardon my inability to find the world maps of tropical cyclones. Where are they? What do I click to access these maps that have been readily avalible at the top of the opening page. Please help me.
Edit: I found the wunderground hurricane archive but it is not as easy to find as it was. I hope it's not going away.

NOAA has a hurricane archive site but it is not as user-friendly. I suggest bookmarking it in case the wunderground hurricane archive goes away.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
51. BaltimoreBrian
2:36 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Pardon my inability to find the world maps of tropical cyclones. Where are they? What do I click to access these maps that have been readily avalible at the top of the opening page. Please help me.
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Quoting 43. barbamz:

Record-breaking climate change pushes world into 'uncharted territory'
Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows
The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Tuesday 21 March 2017 00.39 GMT
The record-breaking heat that made 2016 the hottest year ever recorded has continued into 2017, pushing the world into "truly uncharted territory", according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
The WMO's assessment of the climate in 2016, published on Tuesday, reports unprecedented heat across the globe, exceptionally low ice at both poles and surging sea-level rise. ...

More see link above.


The summary at one glance. Click to enlarge.
Official WMO press release.


It seems that we're getting 'close to the edge of the falls', ...couple of years or so, and over and down we go.
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The climate change denialists are inactive tonight. They don't relish the thought of being reminded their dictator (In a literal sense, follow what he dictates) and his wrecking crew are confirmed to be under FBI investigation.

Will Republicans in the richest nation in the world and profiteers of environmental destruction worldwide at LEAST clothe, feed, and shelter those who lose their property, livelihood, and freedom due to climate change? Or will the blame be ignored as they pay billions to manufacture a popular message and dialogue to escape responsibility? I get the feeling the latter will be tried - we somehow celebrate tort reform as a way to keep parasites from suing over cancer causing pollution or "intentionally" burning their crotch with hot coffee. Then we thank them for legislating away our rights.
In other real news, not fake, Arctic sea ice extent is probably in Spring free fall. But you smart folks in WUnderland are already on top of that.
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living earth app web site powered by wu

Link
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Quoting 9. Patrap:

Severe Weather Readiness for People with Disabilities
By: Portlight , 12:03 PM CDT on March 23, 2016


For the 57 million Americans with disabilities, medical emergencies and natural disasters present real challenges. Learn how people with disabilities, their families, and first responders can plan ahead for a disaster.



57 million Americans have a disability, and anyone can be at risk for developing or acquiring one in their lifetime through illness, injury, or aging. People with disabilities may face barriers to everyday activities, such as reading small print, understanding instructions, getting to places or hearing what is said.

This is particularly relevant when disasters strike and people are forced to leave or be confined in their home.




It doesn't even have to be severe. Even though people are very good about shoveling their walks in this town, the snow removal is terrible... in part because there is a limited budget, in part because there is no alternate side of the street parking in winter, and in part because we don't use salt here as it would damage the streams and rivers. Consequently when it snows a few inches, it pretty much just gets packed down into ice by traffic. The city WILL bring sand around to really slick intersections, but only plows that main routes generally, and the side streets only occasionally. The result is that the streets all over town get terribly rutted and bumpy with ice. If you're a senior citizen it becomes extremely dangerous (A slip = a broken hip like as not, and a broken hip in a senior citizen is likely the beginning of the final decent.

So many seniors are housebound all winter where we have substantial snow (and this winter was close to a great-lakes style winter)
Quoting 40. Patrap:

My Sons band is en route back to NOLA from Paris and are traveling from Atlanta tonight...on the least leg of the trip.

They arrived March 7th. They were with friends who visited here and they are the Directors of the French Opera House there in Paris. I want to thank them here for allowing the Boyz a first rate and unique French experience and wunderful accommodations while there. The band also payed it forward by mentoring many local French Jazz students as well...and brought a cache of Musical Jazz Instruments to distribute among them.

Here is the boyz performing with a local French Citizen soon after arriving...while practicing.









Jr's page.






Thanks for sharing that ~mellow~ vibe ...! Hoo!~
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quiet
here my spring has sprung tune


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Record-breaking climate change pushes world into 'uncharted territory'
Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows
The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Tuesday 21 March 2017 00.39 GMT
The record-breaking heat that made 2016 the hottest year ever recorded has continued into 2017, pushing the world into "truly uncharted territory", according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
The WMO's assessment of the climate in 2016, published on Tuesday, reports unprecedented heat across the globe, exceptionally low ice at both poles and surging sea-level rise. ...

More see link above.


The summary at one glance. Click to enlarge.
Official WMO press release.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
a
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I'm very sorry to learn about the losses of fruits in the US due to the damaging weather! Thanks for the update on this.

On other news:
Overnight Energy: White House delays climate order's release
By Timothy Cama and Devin Henry - 03/20/17 06:23 PM EDT
The White House has delayed the release of an executive order on climate change, two sources told The Hill on Monday.
President Trump was expected to sign his long-awaited order on Monday, beginning the process of rolling back major Obama-era climate change policies and fulfilling key campaign promises.
But that order could now come next week instead, the sources said.
The timing of the executive order has been up in the air for weeks as the White House mulls what exactly to include in the plan. ...

More see link above.
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My Sons band is en route back to NOLA from Paris and are traveling from Atlanta tonight...on the least leg of the trip.

They arrived March 7th. They were with friends who visited here and they are the Directors of the French Opera House there in Paris. I want to thank them here for allowing the Boyz a first rate and unique French experience and wunderful accommodations while there. The band also payed it forward by mentoring many local French Jazz students as well...and brought a cache of Musical Jazz Instruments to distribute among them.

Here is the boyz performing with a local French Citizen soon after arriving...while practicing.









Jr's page.



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Quoting 35. Ed22:

Maybe, maybe not; lets just have a wait and see approach to things like nature, models can ownly predict but will happen; its 50/50 chance of it happening or it may not happen at all.
I think with the generally warming waters we can expect a higher incidence. As a geologist I have read papers where the authors speculated that El Nino could have been persistent in times of high CO2 concentration in the geologic past.
Now, I did say it was speculative, but that is something to think about. I'm personally becoming very skeptical about the ENSO being any kind of reliable metric on what the climate is going to do.
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Happy 1st day of spring! (Statue of Flora, goddess of flowers and the season of spring, from Roman Emperor Hadrian's villa)

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A 15th-century description of spring, when 'the medys waxen grene, the flowris coloureth the erthe.'

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Spring soundtrack



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35. Ed22
Quoting 22. bwtranch:

I'm pretty much neutral also, but I think it's almost surely going to be headed that way as the months go by and into autumn.
Maybe, maybe not; lets just have a wait and see approach to things like nature, models can ownly predict but will happen; its 50/50 chance of it happening or it may not happen at all.
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I dont know about yall but it feels like Christmas..

Comey confirming Trump-Russia probe investigations was splendid but Trump with his meltdown on Twitter was even more glorious.

All the dangerous policies put in place by Trump including climate change will be reversed soon.

#Biggerthanwatergate

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so happy cali had lots of rains be bumper crops later if the rain had not come blueberries would of been 29.88 a pint
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Quoting 30. CaneFreeCR:

I'm guessing that climate change is causing a good deal of gender confusion as well as other problems. I suggest the oceanic disturbance we've known as ENSO is becoming El Nieta , the confused offspring of El Nino and La Nina, and its characteristics will only become apparent over time, as did the characteristics of the parents.
Thanks for the "science".
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Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



This does not look to me like an El Nino. I am dumbfounded on what it might be. The ocean side of El Nino is an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave which propagates along the thermocline. Kelvin waves cannot, for dynamical reasons, propagate west and thermocline disturbances that originate on the east side of the pacific basin, propagate west as a type of rossby wave. But I don't know what is going on here and solicit comment from oceanographers (who worked out the orignal Kelvin Wave theory in the 1970s)
I'm guessing that climate change is causing a good deal of gender confusion as well as other problems. I suggest the oceanic disturbance we've known as ENSO is becoming El Nieta , the confused offspring of El Nino and La Nina, and its characteristics will only become apparent over time, as did the characteristics of the parents.
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jack up the prices even more now
and bring home nothing 6 or 7 bags and its like 200 dollars
its got to end somewhere next year when my contact is up
gonna have to ask for a 40 percent raise
8 percent per year over the term of the 5 year contact to 2023
just to cover food
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it will be 8.99 for a pint of blueberries soon
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26. BobHenson (Admin)
Just added this to today's post:

Update: Total crop losses in South Carolina and Georgia could approach $1 billion, according to an AP report filed Monday afternoon.

Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:





This does not look to me like an El Nino. I am dumbfounded on what it might be. The ocean side of El Nino is an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave which propagates along the thermocline. Kelvin waves cannot, for dynamical reasons, propagate west and thermocline disturbances that originate on the east side of the pacific basin, propagate west as a type of rossby wave. But I don't know what is going on here and solicit comment from oceanographers (who worked out the orignal Kelvin Wave theory in the 1970s)
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Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall tomorrow; as noted in the main Blog and by some comments below, looks like we are going to have our hands full with tracking potential severe weather over the next several days: have to see what happens when the Pacific jet reaches the Rockies and beyond into the Plains:


Image result for map rocky mountains





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From Reuters:

Teens suing U.S. over climate change ask for Exxon's 'Wayne Tracker' emails



Lawyers for a group of teenagers suing the U.S. government in a climate change case have asked the government and the oil industry's leading trade group to turn over emails sent and received by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson using an alias address while he was running Exxon Mobil.

"It's possible that Rex Tillerson was communicating with people in government related to climate and energy policy using that email address," Julia Olson, a lawyer for the teenagers, said on Monday, referring to the alias address

Wayne.Tracker@exxonmobil.com.

[...]

The teenagers' case, filed in federal court in Oregon, seeks to prove government officials and oil industry leaders knew about the causes and effects of climate change but nevertheless carried on with policies that perpetuated it, violating Americans' constitutional right to live in a habitable climate.

The federal government has argued in court filings that there is no support for the claim that Americans are constitutionally entitled to a protected climate, while the API has said climate science is not firmly established enough to support the teenagers' case.

Spokespeople for the Justice Department, Exxon and the API did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

"Based on evidence we already have, it's pretty clear that Rex Tillerson, Exxon and API all knew that climate change was very significant and was being caused by burning fossil fuels," Olson said. "To the extent that we can get information through Wayne Tracker emails that they were openly acknowledging climate change was a big problem and trying to influence the government on how to deal with it, that helps our case."

The case is Juliana v. U.S., U.S. District Court, District of Oregon (Eugene), No. 15-cv-01517.

Click here to read full article.

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Quoting 21. Ed22:

My thinking, No El nino.
I'm pretty much neutral also, but I think it's almost surely going to be headed that way as the months go by and into autumn.
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21. Ed22
Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:



My thinking, No El nino.
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