Tropical Storm Emily remains weak with roadblocks ahead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:14 PM GMT on August 02, 2011

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Tropical Storm Emily took a moment to pause this morning, with no forward motion to speak of in the 11am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, who say Emily might have been reorganizing. Emily eventually picked up some speed, and was moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph in the 2pm EDT advisory. Satellite loops suggest that the storm has improved since yesterday, with strong thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation accompanied by moderately strong outflow at higher levels. Recent satellite estimates of circulation show some consolidation at low levels (850mb), but weak circulation at higher levels (500mb). Despite the organized presentation on satellite, Hurricane Hunters found a generally disorganized storm this morning, with multiple potential centers. The lowest pressure that the Hunters found was 1007mb. Wind shear remains strong to the north of the storm, and this feature extends west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Dry air, which has been lingering to the north of the system for the past few days, has begun to wrap around the northwest side of the storm. This, along with high wind shear along its potential track, could delay or prevent further intensification over the life of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on its way to Emily now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 1pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The official forecast for Emily is a track toward the west-northwest over the next day and a half, after which it will make a turn to the northwest, and by Saturday, to the north. Although the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the forecast track to the east over the past few advisories, the U.S. coastline is still within the cone of uncertainty, and if we know something about this storm, it's that the forecast is uncertain. The CMC continues to be the western boundary of the model track forecasts, bringing Emily over Cuba and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today, on the eastern boundary of potential tracks fall the HWRF and the GFDL, which forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola on a north-northwest trajectory, skirting the eastern edge of the Bahamas, and turning northeast before ever making connection with the U.S. coast. The Hurricane Center's official track follows the model consensus, and is the most likely track. Today, Emily is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next five days by the National Hurricane Center nor most of the models. Consensus seems to be that the storm will max out at a moderate to strong tropical cyclone, but this is assuming the storm can survive the wrath of Hispaniola.

Surviving Hispaniola

Hispaniola is somewhat notorious for being a major disruptor to tropical cyclones that dare cross over it. Since 1950, around two dozen tropical cyclones have crossed Hispaniola near where the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Emily will pass over. A handful of these cyclones were of similar intensity with a track that was similar to Emily's forecast by various models, and although some went on to intensify (the warm Gulf of Mexico waters can be quite healing) many were fatally disrupted by the second largest island in the Caribbean.


Figure 2. Tropical cyclones that have crossed Hispaniola since 1950 (plotted using the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker).

Fay of 2008 developed in the Mona Passage on August 15th as a tropical storm. After a rough track westward over the length of Hispaniola, Fay emerged back into open water with little to no organized circulation, but managed to survive, and skirted the southern coast of Cuba for the next couple of days before turning north toward Florida. Many remember 2008's Fay as the storm that intensified and developed an eye-like feature over Florida after making landfall.

Cindy of 1993 was not as lucky in a battle with Hispaniola. Cindy developed as a tropical depression just east of the Lesser Antilles, and over the course of two days, tracked west-northwest through the Caribbean toward Hispaniola, strengthening into a tropical storm and reaching peak intensity just before landfall. Almost immediately upon landfall in the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Cindy deteriorated and the National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on the system.

Emily of 1987 developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in late September and tracked northwest into the Caribbean, where it underwent a period of rapid intensification and was upgraded to a hurricane and then a major hurricane (category 3) just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. As the hurricane approached Hispaniola, it began deteriorating, and within 12 hours of landfall, Emily had weakened to a tropical storm and never regained its strength. Emily then took a turn to the northeast and tracked into the open Atlantic. Hurricane Katie of 1955 had a similar fate.

Angela

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Quoting Abacosurf:
Dow down 265.

Emily heading for DC.


Mets working for the oil and gas companies predicting GOM storm, lol
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Quoting angiest:


Well, FWIW, one of 1900 or 1915 *does* show up on the historical storms chart....




;)

there is not very many storm that passes Bahamas and E of Fl on that most of them go W into the GOM


BTW looks like HH is heading home?!?!?!
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Quoting weatherjr:
EMILY IS DISSIPATING AGAIN... This stage could be her last chance to fight before she is finally killed. In summary: Emily will pass (from this world)with NO glory.

Another one joining my list thank u for that.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Afternoon All. Can anyone tell me how long the high over Texas and Mid-Gulf is expected to be there? TIA



it will be there until saturday...
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Quoting Drakoen:

Yes. I am in Calc 3 now. We are on the Chapter on Vectors. So far we have covered vector feilds, line integrals, curl and divergence, and Green's Theorem.


Is Cal 3 required for your major? I'm an Atmospheric Science major and it is not a required class for us although i will probably take it to get my math minor and it will most likely help me out in Grad school
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Quoting Drakoen:

Yes. I am in Calc 3 now. We are on the Chapter on Vectors. So far we have covered vector feilds, line integrals, curl and divergence, and Green's Theorem.


All fun stuff Stokes Theorem was really the only trouble I had in Multivariable, it was also a nice class because it had obvious connections to meteorology.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well Trig wasn't required in my major but i took it and it really helped me further down the road so just a thought for those of you that haven't taken it


I did Calc III for my vector stuff. I hadn't encountered them in any other math class.
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450. DVG
Quoting IceCoast:
Emily is a very deceiving storm on satellite imagery. My eyes are sure telling me something different then Recon Data is, that's for sure.


Happens to me on every storm.
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EMILY IS DISSIPATING AGAIN... This stage could be her last chance to fight before she is finally killed. In summary: Emily will pass (from this world)with NO glory.
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It seems that Emily is mainly a MLC feature still with a ragged lower-level structure. I guess it's good enough to get a VDM out though. Really surprising when you look at satellite appearance.
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It may or may not be the case, but visible RGB imagery suggests to me that there may still be some mid-level rotation back near 63.5W, possibly indicating that Emily is not yet vertically stacked. It's hard to tell from just a loop, but it is supported by CIMSS analysis.

850mb Vorticity:



500mb Vorticity:


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Quoting robj144:


Definitely a course with vector analysis in it (depends on the school, but where I teach and the when I was a undergrad., it was Calc. 3) BEFORE you take the class. I see a lot of students trying to the math req. and the class at the same time... it usually doesn't work.
Yes. I am in Calc 3 now. We are on the Chapter on Vectors. So far we have covered vector feilds, line integrals, curl and divergence, and Green's Theorem.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Afternoon All. Can anyone tell me how long the high over Texas and Mid-Gulf is expected to be there? TIA


Quite a while it appears. The GFS doesn't have a green blob or even a pixel over that area for a long time... more hot and dry it appears.
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444. bwi
Buoy 42059 at about 1008mb last hour. Winds pretty light at mostly NE.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I quoted the wrong person. Wasn't directed at you. Sorry.

No problem it happens to some of us as well.
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Quoting robj144:


You have to know Trig. for Calculus or Physics though.


Excatly alot of people in my class were lost and had to kinda teach themselves the trig of it and i had already seen it before so it really helped
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Hey I know you're still learning here but I know it heading here in TX...never said that lol just saying that a couple of bloggers are mentioning that emily is weakening which it isn't.
was quoting Post #408.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol! you just infuriated the blog


Well, FWIW, one of 1900 or 1915 *does* show up on the historical storms chart....




;)
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The models i believe is initialising a stronger system with the trough to it's northwest pullig it to the north. as emily is a weak TS it will flow with the east to west current. this is a different scenario as the storm continues to the west ,with little indication of a WNW motion. if this direction continues it will bring Jamaica into the picture
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well Trig wasn't required in my major but i took it and it really helped me further down the road so just a thought for those of you that haven't taken it


You have to know Trig. for Calculus or Physics though.
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Dow down 265.

Emily heading for DC.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting coordinates:

B. 15 deg 39 min N
065 deg 13 min W


They make a lot of sense given the convective structure on satellite imagery:

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I think the full COC is SW or SSW of the latest vort message
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

Hey I know you're still learning here but I know it heading here in TX...never said that lol just saying that a couple of bloggers are mentioning that emily is weakening which it isn't.
I quoted the wrong person. Wasn't directed at you. Sorry.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Afternoon All. Can anyone tell me how long the high over Texas and Mid-Gulf is expected to be there? TIA
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Emily is a very deceiving storm on satellite imagery. My eyes are telling me something different then Recon Data is, that's for sure.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
can't... there is high pressure over Texas prevent Emily from going into western Gulf of Mexico at this moment.

Hey I know you're still learning here but I know it heading here in TX...never said that lol just saying that a couple of bloggers are mentioning that emily is weakening which it isn't.
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 19:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 19:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°39'N 65°13'W (15.65N 65.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 199 miles (320 km) to the SSE (164°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 159° at 24kts (From the SSE at ~ 27.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 300m (984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:35:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7980
Quoting CentralTxDave:
This storm seems to be following the same path as the 1900 Galveston Storm. Even back then everyone was saying it would recurve and turn east -but even now with all our technology and satellites we still dont know for sure where this little storm is going for sure. Seems she is slowly gaining strength, but keeping her westward path. Looks like Cuba will be hit and then if the Texas high moves nw as predicted next week- Emily will have a clear shot at Texas...


lol! you just infuriated the blog
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Good afternoon

Just a couple of quick posts.

Emily is beginning to look ragged again and this is not just Dmin. Outflow boundaries readily apparent in the NW quad of the circulation indicate that dry air intrusion into the circulation is really doing a number on the convection. Between the heat of the day, 20 knots of shear immediately to the N of the storm and the dry air, the next few hours may take its toll on Emily.

The image below shows the outflow boundaries in the NW quadrant.

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Quoting Levi32:


I recommend this strongly as well, having completed all of that already.


Well Trig wasn't required in my major but i took it and it really helped me further down the road so just a thought for those of you that haven't taken it
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Quoting Drakoen:

I'm going to take Electricity and Magnetism in the Spring. What course do you recommend taking before that class?



refresh on calculus...get a good graphing calc that has the usb connection for the computer...hubby is an master electrician...calculus is a big component
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Diff Eq. imo is actually easier than Linear Algebra, granted I did not take applied Linear Algebra and admittedly the L.A. class I took was really abstract whereas there are clear applications to Diff Eq. in Physics. Curious how much physics have you taken so far?


Sorry to intrude but the conversation brought some flash backs.....DiffEQ seemed to be the most real life useful mathematics course out of all....Linear Algebra (aka..Multi-variable Mathematics MATH 311) wasn't much fun. At TAMU MATH 311 was a prerequisite before taking the Second Dynamic Meteorology and Physical Meteorology classes. The only similarity MATH 311 had with any meteorology topic that it reinforced topics such as vectors & subspaces, Null space, Eigenvalues & Eigenvectors, partial derivatives, gradient vectors, curvelinear coordinates, Green's Theorem, Stokes Theorem, use of the Operators, LaPlace Transform, all the heavy hitters in mathematics. They were difficult to stay focused on in that math class since they were pure math driven and not relating to Meteorology. Once the connection was made with Dynamic Meteorology they were much more useful in meaning.
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Westward motion confirmed.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
Looks like Emily is starting to strengthen. Pressure drop and in the previous vortex fix surface winds of 55mph.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks to me recon is done


Yeah it looks the same to me, kinda surprised.
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People kept saying it's going to Texas... but they aren't paying attention to high pressure area over Texas preventing Emily from going toward them. Got to go, guys...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting robj144:


Definitely a course with vector analysis in it (depends on the school, but where I teach and the when I was a undergrad., it was Calc. 3) BEFORE you take the class. I see a lot of students trying to the math req. and the class at the same time... it usually doesn't work.


I recommend this strongly as well, having completed all of that already.
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Quoting angiest:
URNT12 KNHC 021948
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/19:10:10Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
065 deg 13 min W
C. NA
D. 27 kt
E. 121 deg 45 nm
F. 159 deg 24 kt
G. 117 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 24 C / 305 m
J. 24 C / 300 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0605A EMILY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 17:35:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 360 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
still moving west
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Quoting Drakoen:

I'm going to take Electricity and Magnetism in the Spring. What course do you recommend taking before that class?



Definitely a course with vector analysis in it (depends on the school, but where I teach and the when I was a undergrad., it was Calc. 3) BEFORE you take the class. I see a lot of students trying to the math req. and the class at the same time... it usually doesn't work.
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Interesting coordinates:

B. 15 deg 39 min N
065 deg 13 min W
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looks to me recon is done
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Quoting Drakoen:

I'm going to take Electricity and Magnetism in the Spring. What course do you recommend taking before that class?



Well from my experience I would definatly know my Trig, Calculus, Algebra
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It's been a while since I was in school, but Advanced Differential Equations was the hardest class of my life... Linear algebra was a cake walk compared to it. The 2nd quarter of multivariable calculus was the only other class that came close to the difficulty of Advanced Diff. Eq.

Keeping a close eye on Emily... Nice to see you Drak, good luck in your studies!
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URNT12 KNHC 021948
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 02/19:10:10Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
065 deg 13 min W
C. NA
D. 27 kt
E. 121 deg 45 nm
F. 159 deg 24 kt
G. 117 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 24 C / 305 m
J. 24 C / 300 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0605A EMILY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 17:35:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 360 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah, thats never the problem for me, its always the losing focus hahaha.


Approach it is a job and work 40 or more hours per week on your classes and you'll be fine. This is something I did not realize myself until my junior when I was a undergraduate. I managed to save myself though and this principle did me well in grad. school.
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Quoting thedawnawakening3:
Actually the deepest convection is organizing over the center of circulation and outflow is improving in all quadrants. SE quadrant is the best so far in outflow right now. Spiral banding while weak currently is developing on the western and southern sides of Emily right now. Outflow channel trying to become established on the southern side of the cyclone indicates this system is slowly getting better organized.

Agreed
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Quoting HTownJitters:
\

Yea, I thought about going back and changing the 330...it is 280-300 range.


I'm not sure, the lowest pressure (1004.4mb) that recon found was at about a heading of 330 from the previous centre fix.
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This storm seems to be following the same path as the 1900 Galveston Storm. Even back then everyone was saying it would recurve and turn east -but even now with all our technology and satellites we still dont know for sure where this little storm is going for sure. Seems she is slowly gaining strength, but keeping her westward path. Looks like Cuba will be hit and then if the Texas high moves nw as predicted next week- Emily will have a clear shot at Texas...
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Quoting houston144:
will Emily begin to fall apart after it passes south of PR?, it looks like Emily is about to fall apart.


I doubt it is falling apart...just be dmin and reconsolidation time.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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