Tropical Storm Emily remains weak with roadblocks ahead
Tropical Storm Emily took a moment to pause this morning, with no forward motion to speak of in the 11am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, who say Emily might have been reorganizing. Emily eventually picked up some speed, and was moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph in the 2pm EDT advisory. Satellite loops suggest that the storm has improved since yesterday, with strong thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation accompanied by moderately strong outflow at higher levels. Recent satellite estimates of circulation show some consolidation at low levels (850mb), but weak circulation at higher levels (500mb). Despite the organized presentation on satellite, Hurricane Hunters found a generally disorganized storm this morning, with multiple potential centers. The lowest pressure that the Hunters found was 1007mb. Wind shear remains strong to the north of the storm, and this feature extends west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Dry air, which has been lingering to the north of the system for the past few days, has begun to wrap around the northwest side of the storm. This, along with high wind shear along its potential track, could delay or prevent further intensification over the life of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on its way to Emily now.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 1pm EDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The official forecast for Emily is a track toward the west-northwest over the next day and a half, after which it will make a turn to the northwest, and by Saturday, to the north. Although the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the forecast track to the east over the past few advisories, the U.S. coastline is still within the cone of uncertainty, and if we know something about this storm, it's that the forecast is uncertain. The CMC continues to be the western boundary of the model track forecasts, bringing Emily over Cuba and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today, on the eastern boundary of potential tracks fall the HWRF and the GFDL, which forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola on a north-northwest trajectory, skirting the eastern edge of the Bahamas, and turning northeast before ever making connection with the U.S. coast. The Hurricane Center's official track follows the model consensus, and is the most likely track. Today, Emily is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next five days by the National Hurricane Center nor most of the models. Consensus seems to be that the storm will max out at a moderate to strong tropical cyclone, but this is assuming the storm can survive the wrath of Hispaniola.
Surviving Hispaniola
Hispaniola is somewhat notorious for being a major disruptor to tropical cyclones that dare cross over it. Since 1950, around two dozen tropical cyclones have crossed Hispaniola near where the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Emily will pass over. A handful of these cyclones were of similar intensity with a track that was similar to Emily's forecast by various models, and although some went on to intensify (the warm Gulf of Mexico waters can be quite healing) many were fatally disrupted by the second largest island in the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Tropical cyclones that have crossed Hispaniola since 1950 (plotted using the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker).
Fay of 2008 developed in the Mona Passage on August 15th as a tropical storm. After a rough track westward over the length of Hispaniola, Fay emerged back into open water with little to no organized circulation, but managed to survive, and skirted the southern coast of Cuba for the next couple of days before turning north toward Florida. Many remember 2008's Fay as the storm that intensified and developed an eye-like feature over Florida after making landfall.
Cindy of 1993 was not as lucky in a battle with Hispaniola. Cindy developed as a tropical depression just east of the Lesser Antilles, and over the course of two days, tracked west-northwest through the Caribbean toward Hispaniola, strengthening into a tropical storm and reaching peak intensity just before landfall. Almost immediately upon landfall in the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Cindy deteriorated and the National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on the system.
Emily of 1987 developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in late September and tracked northwest into the Caribbean, where it underwent a period of rapid intensification and was upgraded to a hurricane and then a major hurricane (category 3) just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. As the hurricane approached Hispaniola, it began deteriorating, and within 12 hours of landfall, Emily had weakened to a tropical storm and never regained its strength. Emily then took a turn to the northeast and tracked into the open Atlantic. Hurricane Katie of 1955 had a similar fate.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Not at all.
yep
[Gives a standing ovation] THANK YOU DEWEY!!!!!
hugo was hugo
Don't forget this bad dude , became a Cat 5 3 times and had the most tornados( i think) of any hurricane
wow same old same old...happens every august...the classic bait and switch screen name ruse...each of them thinks they are the first to come up with the idea...yawn,,how ya doing Jupiter?
For me, it's this one:
hey ya zoo! i know Andrew was a bit more costly, but actually it came out a few years after Andrew that the main reason is due to the population of Florida... the eye hit Charleston basically...the worst quadrant hit Awendaw...more so smaller fishing communities and such...population not near what florida has...we were also lucky that hugo's forward speed was on the higher side...2mph slower and we would have been annialated
MARK
16.45N/65.63W
That sound you hear was Emily putting up a huge tower in the last hour or so. (it's 10:30est now) Might be best convective action yet.
could mean she's found her mojo and is heading for cane status by morning.
Hey kids!!!!! Listen closely to the voice of experience!!!!
tha
that would be a good idea!
lol
Just perfection, amazement. No words...Scary!
or...
Good to see you, Vinci.
Any damages to roads/bridges etc?
9" is plenty rain coming down the hill.
Cant watch Levi's video right now. Can someone fill me in on his thoughts on Emily and how they are panning out?
Why does it say H/E/C1?
"The dissipating storm precipitated the end of the Heat Wave of 1980 in places like Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, which had recorded 69 days of 100 °F (38 °C) heat."
Hopefully, this drought will end without the help of a 190 mph Category 5 hurricane making landfall in Texas.
Hopefully they can wag some rain our way, not just the beach destroying waves that come along with it.
Link
post of the day
Met Isabel in person, mean woman she was. Our HD Store opened 7 days after landfall. Sure was a heck of an opening from the generator sales. That was 2 years before I worked there though.
8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 2
Location: 14.7°N 111.8°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
Same comment/same time...... :)
dont fall into the jog game
Not so weird when you realize that it's the stronger storms that become what you're calling "pretty." Personally, I'd rather see a ragged storm than a pretty one. Especially if it's heading toward any populated area.
lets get it on no more wasting time fooling around here
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 111.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
The fury of EMILY! LOL
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