Tropical Storm Emily remains weak with roadblocks ahead
Tropical Storm Emily took a moment to pause this morning, with no forward motion to speak of in the 11am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, who say Emily might have been reorganizing. Emily eventually picked up some speed, and was moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph in the 2pm EDT advisory. Satellite loops suggest that the storm has improved since yesterday, with strong thunderstorm activity surrounding the center of circulation accompanied by moderately strong outflow at higher levels. Recent satellite estimates of circulation show some consolidation at low levels (850mb), but weak circulation at higher levels (500mb). Despite the organized presentation on satellite, Hurricane Hunters found a generally disorganized storm this morning, with multiple potential centers. The lowest pressure that the Hunters found was 1007mb. Wind shear remains strong to the north of the storm, and this feature extends west across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Dry air, which has been lingering to the north of the system for the past few days, has begun to wrap around the northwest side of the storm. This, along with high wind shear along its potential track, could delay or prevent further intensification over the life of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on its way to Emily now.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Tropical Storm Emily at 1pm EDT.
Forecast for Tropical Storm Emily
The official forecast for Emily is a track toward the west-northwest over the next day and a half, after which it will make a turn to the northwest, and by Saturday, to the north. Although the National Hurricane Center has been shifting the forecast track to the east over the past few advisories, the U.S. coastline is still within the cone of uncertainty, and if we know something about this storm, it's that the forecast is uncertain. The CMC continues to be the western boundary of the model track forecasts, bringing Emily over Cuba and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico. Today, on the eastern boundary of potential tracks fall the HWRF and the GFDL, which forecast Emily to cross over Hispaniola on a north-northwest trajectory, skirting the eastern edge of the Bahamas, and turning northeast before ever making connection with the U.S. coast. The Hurricane Center's official track follows the model consensus, and is the most likely track. Today, Emily is not forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next five days by the National Hurricane Center nor most of the models. Consensus seems to be that the storm will max out at a moderate to strong tropical cyclone, but this is assuming the storm can survive the wrath of Hispaniola.
Surviving Hispaniola
Hispaniola is somewhat notorious for being a major disruptor to tropical cyclones that dare cross over it. Since 1950, around two dozen tropical cyclones have crossed Hispaniola near where the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Emily will pass over. A handful of these cyclones were of similar intensity with a track that was similar to Emily's forecast by various models, and although some went on to intensify (the warm Gulf of Mexico waters can be quite healing) many were fatally disrupted by the second largest island in the Caribbean.
Figure 2. Tropical cyclones that have crossed Hispaniola since 1950 (plotted using the NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracker).
Fay of 2008 developed in the Mona Passage on August 15th as a tropical storm. After a rough track westward over the length of Hispaniola, Fay emerged back into open water with little to no organized circulation, but managed to survive, and skirted the southern coast of Cuba for the next couple of days before turning north toward Florida. Many remember 2008's Fay as the storm that intensified and developed an eye-like feature over Florida after making landfall.
Cindy of 1993 was not as lucky in a battle with Hispaniola. Cindy developed as a tropical depression just east of the Lesser Antilles, and over the course of two days, tracked west-northwest through the Caribbean toward Hispaniola, strengthening into a tropical storm and reaching peak intensity just before landfall. Almost immediately upon landfall in the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Cindy deteriorated and the National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on the system.
Emily of 1987 developed well east of the Lesser Antilles in late September and tracked northwest into the Caribbean, where it underwent a period of rapid intensification and was upgraded to a hurricane and then a major hurricane (category 3) just before landfall in the Dominican Republic. As the hurricane approached Hispaniola, it began deteriorating, and within 12 hours of landfall, Emily had weakened to a tropical storm and never regained its strength. Emily then took a turn to the northeast and tracked into the open Atlantic. Hurricane Katie of 1955 had a similar fate.
Angela
Reader Comments
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After closely observing the WV loop, and latest steering layer currents, I am of the opinion that Emily will continue to track to the left of the official NHC forecast. Even worse, it appears that the high pressure over the SE CONUS, and the Azore/Bermuda high are beginning to build a bridge between them, closing Emily's escape route NW towards the Bahamas. I'll be watching to see if that weakness over the Bahamas continues to close.
I live in Puerto Rico, what that means to us?
don't forget the kitty litter, too.
hereyago:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&xhr=t&q=models &cp=6&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1639&bih=931&wrap id=tljp1312329809507010&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&sou rce=og&sa=N&tab=wi
Intensity~
Tropical Storm,
Minimal: 100%(Already stronger)
Moderate: 100%(Already at this intensity)
Strong: 77%
Hurricane,
Category 1: 42%
Category 2: 20%
Major Hurricane,
Category 3: 6%
Category 4: 1%
Category 5: <1%
Forecast Track:
Over Hispanoila: 89%, Then into the SE US: 53%
Over Hispanoila: 89%, Then out to sea: 42%:
Over Hispanoila: 89%, Then northeastward into Bermuda: 5%
Moves Westward(Stays Weak): 11%
but still a little too close too home on some mode runs
Hey Levi, look at this:
is there a new one?
wishcasting input
I suppose it depends what Elway drinks?
I feel the same. Im waiting for the new steering currents to come in to see if the gap closes or opens.
remember the hispanola factor
many storms have crossed not many
have much of anything left.
forecast path is the worst for emily
I've been watching that all day. The weakness has slowly began to fill at least on the steering currents chart. On the water vapor it almost looks like the trough is still trying to dig. Either way very interesting to see how the next 24 hours plays out.
hmmmm
Agree Violet. This is the big problem at present.
Anyway, have a nice evening folks.
Paying for my vacation with many exhausting days in a row and I like getting up early in the a.m.!
if it is,Emily relocating south again
Are you sure? Post #1512.
Filled up both the cars today. Way to close for comfort, even if it were to follow the current track.
The mid-level circulation is inconsequential to the impacts that will be felt in PR. Rain bands with winds near or just below tropical storm force will likely be around for the next 24-36 hours. Emily may have yet to make her closest pass to PR, which should occur before she makes landfall in the Dominican Republic.
Elway's forecast doesn't sound to diluted. I bet he's refering to the blob behind Emily..could be an invest anytime. They've been going mostly one high then one low so far. Little early to say if NOLA is doomed yet but one for ya'll to watch.
Click pic to animate..
Is it?
Um, same image.
Not rly:
Notice what looks like an outflow boundary moving NW away from the center in that radar loop. Dry air is eroding Emily. Indicates bad news on Emily's door step.
I'm way more impressed he said 'penal'
this one thing the rader from PR is too far a way yet too tell LOL
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