Interesting hybrid low set to drench Spain's Canary Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on February 01, 2010

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An interesting 1002 mb low pressure system with some characteristics of a tropical storm has developed off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Canary Islands. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed top winds of 40 mph near the center, so the low is probably near tropical storm strength. This low is moving east-northeast towards the Canaries, and will likely bring sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, to the islands tonight. The storm formed over the weekend from an isolated cold-cored low that was wandering over the Atlantic, and phase space analyses from Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend. A respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has built near the storm's center, characteristic of a tropical storm. The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year. Wind shear is marginal for tropical storm formation, about 20 knots. The comma-shaped structure of the storm's spiral bands is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone, and it is pretty unlikely that NHC will view this hybrid storm as being sufficiently tropical to warrant naming it a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The low is headed towards colder waters of 20°C that lie near the Canary Islands, and the system should become less tropical today.


Figure 1. Hybrid 1002 mb low approaches the Canary Islands, in this visible METEOSAT image from 7am EST 2/1/10.

You can use our wundermap for the Canary Islands to watch the storm roll through the islands. There are two web cams to watch (currently showing thick clouds) that might be interesting. EUMETSAT satellite images loops will also be interesting.

Next post
My next post will be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Punxsutawney Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

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190. drg0dOwnCountry
12:36 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting NRAamy:
drg....did you get too close to a nuclear plant when you were a kid....or are you related to The Munsters....

Yeah not the best photo, it does not hide my alien origin well ;)
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
189. Grothar
12:36 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Just saw TampaSpins blog. That is terrible news. Perhaps it will help someone else. My cousin in St. Petersburg didn't want to get the shot. He was in the hospital for two weeks with the swine flu. He made it. But Tim accept our condolences. That is truly tragic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
188. NRAamy
12:33 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
drg....did you get too close to a nuclear plant when you were a kid....or are you related to The Munsters....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
187. AwakeInMaryland
12:31 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
My thoughts and prayers are with your family Tim.


Me, also, Tim. I hope you got my WU note. Sorry if my silly posts seem ill-placed.

T-dude, thanks for reminder about Flood's birthday.

Off to order the pizza I go.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
186. Grothar
12:31 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Gro we went from a 70% chance of rain this morning in Broward County to a flash flood watch as we speak.


What part of Broward are you in? I am in Coral Ridge.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
185. NRAamy
12:30 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Yo, Amy! Long time, no talk. Thought you were banned forever.

nah...just busy doing other stuff...and trying to avoid the Main Blog so that I don't get banned forever.....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
184. drg0dOwnCountry
12:30 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Seeing The Effects Of Climate Change (PHOTOS)


The NSDIC reports that, "With few exceptions, glaciers around the world have retreated at unprecedented rates over the last century." Many scientists view this increased rate of melting as proof of global warming. These two photos were taken at Glacier Bay National Park, the top photo in August 1941, the bottom photo in August 2004. The second photo reveals the Muir Glacier has disappeared and Riggs Glacier has significantly retreated. Muir Glacier was more than 2,000 feet thick in 1941.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/15/seeing-the-effects-of-cli_n_423339.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
183. GeoffreyWPB
12:29 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Here's who the Greyhounds predict will win the Super Bowl:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11423
182. AwakeInMaryland
12:28 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting twistermania:


How many times do I gotta tell you guys? If you want 70 degree temps all winter long, move here to Michigan! :D


GrtLksQuest, is twistermania a friend of yours?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
181. tornadodude
12:28 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
oh btw, Flood's bday is wednesday
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
180. Grothar
12:26 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting twistermania:


All right. Break it up, fellas, break it up :)


Hey, twister, glad to see you are back. Join us later. K
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
179. plywoodstatenative
12:24 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Gro we went from a 70% chance of rain this morning in Broward County to a flash flood watch as we speak.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
178. GeoffreyWPB
12:24 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
My thoughts and prayers are with your family Tim.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11423
177. Grothar
12:24 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting NRAamy:
Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

you really are a glutton for punishment, Groth....


Yo, Amy! Long time, no talk. Thought you were banned forever. How have you been? Heard you had some nasty weather a while back. Have things calmed down by you?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
176. AwakeInMaryland
12:24 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
There you go, Grothar. Instigator.

I'm going to go order a pizza...with lots of veggies, so I can pretend it's health food.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
175. twistermania
12:24 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it IS a mess! When IS it ever supposed to be sunny and warm -- and DRY -- in Florida again? I want to visit a friend -- February is a good time to get out of Dodge, around here.


How many times do I gotta tell you guys? If you want 70 degree temps all winter long, move here to Michigan! :D
174. GrtLksQuest
12:23 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


Post 95. So sorry for your loss. Was this cousin a father? mother? of 2 children?
Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
173. drg0dOwnCountry
12:22 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
The role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming
There's been a number of queries regarding a new paper examining the role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming. The paper is Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming (Solomon 2010). There are a few overly excited interpretations of the paper's results circulating around the blogosphere. This is presumably from readings of media clippings, not the actual paper. To accurately determine the significance of Solomon 2010, the best course is to see what the paper actually says.

The atmosphere is divided into several layers. The troposphere is the lowest part of the atmosphere. It contains most of the atmosphere's water vapor, predominantly supplied by evaporation from the ocean surface. Through the troposphere, temperature falls as altitude rises. The boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause. This is known as the "cold point", the coldest point in the lower atmosphere. In the stratosphere, temperature actually rises with altitude. It warms as you get higher - the opposite of the troposphere.

The various observations all found a significant drop in stratospheric water vapor around 2000. Most of the change in water vapor occurs in the lower stratosphere, just above the tropopause. The greatest changes also occur in the tropics and subtropics.
What effect would this have on climate? Figure 2 shows the change in radiative forcing imposed by changes in stratospheric water vapor. The dotted line is the radiative forcing without the effect of stratospheric water vapor changes. The grey shaded region shows the possible range of contribution from changing stratospheric water vapor. As it's a greenhouse gas, increasing water vapor has a warming effect. Consequently, the steady rise from 1980 to 2000 added some warming to the existing warming from greenhouse gases. The drop in water vapor after 2000 had a cooling effect.

What caused these changes? Water vapor in the stratosphere has two main sources. One is transport of water vapor from the troposphere which occurs mainly as air rises in the tropics. The other is the oxidation of methane which occurs mostly in the upper stratosphere. Most of the change in water vapor occurs in the lower stratosphere in the vicinity of regions affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This seems to point towards convection and internal variability driving the changes. A comparison between stratospheric water vapor and tropical sea surface temperatures show good correlation which corroborates a link with El Nino. However, the correlation breaks down in some periods suggesting other processes may also be important. Consequently, the authors are cautious in coming to a firm conclusion on the cause.

There seem to be two major misconceptions arising from this paper. The first is that this paper demonstrates that water vapor is the major driver of global temperatures. In fact, what this paper shows is the effect from stratospheric water vapor contributes a fraction of the temperature change imposed from man-made greenhouse gases. While the stratospheric water vapor is not insignificant, it's hardly the dominant driver of climate being portrayed by some blogs.

The other misinterpretation is that this paper proves negative feedback that cancels out global warming. As we've just seen, the magnitude of the effect is small compared to the overall global warming trend. The paper doesn't draw any conclusions regarding cause, stating that it's not clear whether the water vapor changes are caused by a climate feedback or decadal variability (eg - linked to El Nino Southern Oscillation). The radiative forcing changes (Figure 3 above) indicate that the overall effect from stratospheric water vapor is that of warming. The cooling period consists of a stepwise drop around 2000 followed by a resumption of the warming effect. This seems to speak against the possibility of a negative feedback.

Read Full Article
http://www.skepticalscience.com/role-of-stratospheric-water-vapor-in-global-warming.html
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
172. AwakeInMaryland
12:21 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
re what a mess: Have a look at rain totals across South Florida if you want to talk about a mess.


Yes, it IS a mess! When IS it ever supposed to be sunny and warm -- and DRY -- in Florida again? I want to visit a friend -- February is a good time to get out of Dodge, around here.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
171. twistermania
12:21 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


CANES!!!!!!!!


All right. Break it up, fellas, break it up :)
170. Grothar
12:21 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
re what a mess: Have a look at rain totals across South Florida if you want to talk about a mess.


I am here, all I have to do is look out my window. Big mess. Didn't really expect this much last night.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
169. GeoffreyWPB
12:21 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Lol...the eyes are going fast! Replaced the comment with "rasslin" comment.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11423
168. caneswatch
12:21 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


CANES!!!!!!!!


Get on chat!!!!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
167. Grothar
12:20 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting caneswatch:


Grothar!!!!!


CANES!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
166. plywoodstatenative
12:20 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
re what a mess: Have a look at rain totals across South Florida if you want to talk about a mess.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
165. AwakeInMaryland
12:19 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
I like yours best, Geoff --

The VV does look like a W!!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
164. tornadodude
12:17 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting NRAamy:
Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

you really are a glutton for punishment, Groth....


LOL!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
163. NRAamy
12:16 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

you really are a glutton for punishment, Groth....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
162. Grothar
12:16 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I give up -- what's the VV in ROFLVVH?

Grothar doesn't have lady parts.


AWAKE!!! It means Rolling on the Floor Laughing VERY, VERY Hard.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
161. GeoffreyWPB
12:15 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
For you old-time wrestling fans out there...Jack Brisco passed away today. Use to watch him perform at WPB Auditorium back in the day.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11423
160. Grothar
12:14 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Since the blog is quiet tonight, there is a question I have wanted to ask but I wanted to wait for the right time.

Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

Gee, I enjoy using that word anthropogenic. Since most people learned how to spell it, it is now one of the most commonly used words in the language and on this blog. I think it may replace cyclogenesis as the most overused word.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
159. AwakeInMaryland
12:13 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P


I give up -- what's the VV in ROFLVVH?

Grothar doesn't have lady parts.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
158. tornadodude
12:12 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
what a mess :p

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
157. caneswatch
12:11 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P


Grothar!!!!!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
156. tornadodude
12:09 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P


Lol yeah I remember now. haha well I imagine it will be the same :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
155. Grothar
12:07 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


ok ok :P

there is a branch of IU at South Bend, but the main campus is in Bloomington


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
154. tornadodude
12:03 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Look it up TD! Your own state and you don't know about South Bend? LOL The Chancellor used to be with SUNY State University of NY before being named Chancellor at South Bend. TSK TSK.


ok ok :P

there is a branch of IU at South Bend, but the main campus is in Bloomington
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
153. GrtLksQuest
12:03 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
Global SSTs

A warmer start means less energy required to get into the "red zone"...2010 may be a '04-'05 hybrid, as has been noted by a few...


From Post 20: This is the message I got when I followed that link ( Global SSTs )

Ooop! Forgot to add 'the message' -

This Connection is Untrusted











You have asked SeaMonkey to connect
securely to www.fnmoc.navy.mil, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.



Normally, when you try to connect securely,
sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are
going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified.







What Should I Do?





If you usually connect to
this site without problems, this error could mean that someone is
trying to impersonate the site, and you shouldn't continue.











Technical Details



www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)

Member Since: November 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
152. Grothar
12:00 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting tornadodude:


I imagine it will be decently cold, probably around 30. Indiana University in South Bend? IU is in Bloomington. Notre Dame is in South Bend


Look it up TD! Your own state and you don't know about South Bend? LOL The Chancellor used to be with SUNY State University of NY before being named Chancellor at South Bend. TSK TSK.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
151. all4hurricanes
12:00 AM GMT on February 02, 2010
Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow, this is certainly interesting. I hope it in now way reflects the type of hurricane season we will have in the Atlantic this year.

remember 2009 started with an early depression and look how that turned out. But for every example there's always a counter example like 2008 hard to say
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2374
Quoting Grothar:


As I told you before I shall be in South Bend this month at Indiana University. Then I shall be staying with friends in Rolling Prairie. How is the weather supposed to be about the middle of the month?


I imagine it will be decently cold, probably around 30. Indiana University in South Bend? IU is in Bloomington. Notre Dame is in South Bend
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I have about 2 inches of snow left on the ground, probably will melt tho over the next week. but there are chances of snow periodically :P


As I told you before I shall be in South Bend this month at Indiana University. Then I shall be staying with friends in Rolling Prairie. How is the weather supposed to be about the middle of the month?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
Quoting Grothar:


Busy, TD. very busy. Sorry I haven't been on. Read up on the blog and very nice what you and GeoffWPB came up with. Glad to see your not just sitting back and drinking your Urge. How is the snow situation in Indiana?


Well I have about 2 inches of snow left on the ground, probably will melt tho over the next week. but there are chances of snow periodically :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Another front is going to come through tomorrow and sweep all the rain out.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11423
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey Grothar, how ya been?


Busy, TD. very busy. Sorry I haven't been on. Read up on the blog and very nice what you and GeoffWPB came up with. Glad to see your not just sitting back and drinking your Urge. How is the snow situation in Indiana?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Evening Grothar...Some areas down there received 8 inches of rain.


Cooper City and Pembroke Pines got 8 inches. We only got about 4 inches. There was about two feet of standing water in some places out there. How does it look for tomorrow. We are still on a flood watch. (Ft. Lauderdale for anyone who doesn't know what we are talking about.) We can usually usually handle 5 or 6 inches, but anymore in a short time can be dangerous. Especially the interior sections which are low.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
Hey Grothar, how ya been?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Evening Grothar...Some areas down there received 8 inches of rain.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11423
Hello, very rainy here.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26847
January was warmest on record for Seattle area
It wasn't sunbathing weather, but January was the warmest on record for the Seattle area, according to the National Weather Service.

The average temperature was 47 degrees, above the average of 45.8 degrees and the highest temperature since they began being recorded at the Seattle Federal Building in 1891. The normal average temperature for the month is 40.9 degrees.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010950668_webwarmjanuary01m.html

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think he was trying to talk about his height. You can see him earlier trying to fit into the frame. Now let's get our minds out of the gutter (:


haha yeah, I'd hope so :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.