Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1378. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY..

This is what I live for



This is what you call a SUPERCANE!
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1377. JamesSA
Wow! How would you like to be the Hurricane Hunter crew that gets sent in to measure that one? Scary!
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SST's about 30?
Link
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Quoting AllStar17:


I don't remember either being that strong. I'll look in to that.


Updated PSA in 2006.
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Rick is stronger than Rita and Katrina but not more intense.

Rick - 906 mb
Rita - 895 mb
Katrina - 902 mb

Remember a hurricane intensity is measured in pressure. It's strength in winds. I would like to see if Rick goes below 900 mb.

In addition Rita peaked at 180 mph and Wilma at 185 mph.

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1373. ackee
what the strongest hurricane we have ever seen in the atlantic
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wilma peaked at 185 and Rita peaked at 180.


I don't remember either being that strong. I'll look in to that.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Look out Baja!

It'll be a weaker Rick, but still very near or at major hurricane status.

Wow! 180 mph.

Wilma - 175 mph
Katrina - 175 mph
Rita - 175 mph

Rick surpasses all of those at 180 MPH.

What a storm!


Wilma peaked at 185 and Rita peaked at 180.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Most of the models, especially the truly dynamical ones are getting some form of OHC or TCHP. The OHC from RSMAS shows.......very little.



And the TCHP, the same:


So what does the maximum potential intensity, also derived from this data (as is my understanding, anyway), know about that the others do not?



The MPI has about the same results for Rick's area as the Gulf Loop, but the heat data is nowhere close.

Anyone?


I think MPI only uses sea surface temperature, not OHC or TCHP.

Link
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Quoting jipmg:
I wonder if it makes it to 200mph winds.. Ive never seen a hurricane that strong through NHC advisories, strongest ive seen are 185


I am sitting here, thinking that Rick isn't done. Normally, and reasonably, one would expect that Rick would start fluctuating. However, Rick has been rapidly intensifying since formation. My point - Rick could reach 200 mph.
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Looks a LOT like Dean at peak strength.
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Quoting Weather456:


185 mph

Linda and the other storm that held a record was 1997 and 2002 respectively, both El Nino years.


OK...this...right here ...is exactly the kind of trivia I come here for...excellent...
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Look out Baja!

It'll be a weaker Rick, but still very near or at major hurricane status.

Wow! 180 mph.

Wilma - 175 mph
Katrina - 175 mph
Rita - 175 mph

Rick surpasses all of those at 180 MPH.

What a storm!
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We're watching history in terms of meteorology here tonight guys.. Linda's record is about to be smashed, Rick's 4 mb weaker and 5 mph weaker than Linda.. but Rick's strengthening still rapidly.
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i don't know how to post it... but looking at the loop of rick at max speed... eye is slightly shrinking, indicating intensifying? Also, moving due west, and the storm looks like a perfect circle from start to finish of the loop. Absolutely amazing.
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
How high did Hurricane Linda's winds get in 1997?


185 mph

Linda and the other storm that held a record was 1997 and 2002 respectively, both El Nino years.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Forcasted to peak at 185, I do think 195 is in the arena here.

I'm giving up my age, but I was 8 yrs old when Hurricane Camille has 200 MPH winds in the Gulf of Mexico!!
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THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY..

This is what I live for

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Rick's only 1 MB weaker than Dean was in the Atlantic, but 5 mph stronger.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

They're not sleeping tonight...


I have been in 130 Kts before.. and trust me.. you were just trying to stay in one piece :)
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Quoting jipmg:
I wonder if it makes it to 200mph winds.. Ive never seen a hurricane that strong through NHC advisories, strongest ive seen are 185


Forcasted to peak at 185, I do think 195 is in the arena here.
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How high did Hurricane Linda's winds get in 1997?
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THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR.


180 mph.. wow.. this was 92L in the Atlantic a few days ago.
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HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

"THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR." NHCDISCUSSION8PM
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180mph highest i've ever seen an advisory
currently Rick is 2nd strongest hurricane in the Epac ever I think it might reach 1st
Rick 906mb Linda 902mb
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Quoting jipmg:
I wonder if it makes it to 200mph winds.. Ive never seen a hurricane that strong through NHC advisories, strongest ive seen are 185



that would be cool
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Impressive and scary at the same time. Note the warm water where Rick is? Note that it's warmer on that shelf between Cuba and the Caymans? Sure hope we don't get even marginally favorable conditions in the WCar if we get some cyclogenesis there this week....


i dunno. Looks pretty unorganized, I'd be amazed if we get something. Models support it though... and MJO is here...

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you not what would be even more cooler if the nhc made Jimena a cat 5 at post season
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Completely unrelated question. Should I walk 10 minutes in the freezing cold of upstate new york to get really good hot wings?
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1348. jipmg
I wonder if it makes it to 200mph winds.. Ive never seen a hurricane that strong through NHC advisories, strongest ive seen are 185
Quoting Orcasystems:



They're not sleeping tonight...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Weather456:


so true



yup


i think will see 897mb in the next update with winds of 185 or 190 that would be cool
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Most of the models, especially the truly dynamical ones are getting some form of OHC or TCHP. The OHC from RSMAS shows.......very little.



And the TCHP, the same:


So what does the maximum potential intensity, also derived from this data (as is my understanding, anyway), know about that the others do not?



The MPI has about the same results for Rick's area as the Gulf Loop, but the heat data is nowhere close.

Anyone?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Tazmanian:
you dont see a 180mph hurricane evere day WOW


so true
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...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB

They upped it to 155 knots
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God knows the meteorologists at the NHC are in as much amazement as we are:

WTPZ35 KNHC 180235
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...


INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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you dont see a 180mph hurricane evere day WOW
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Quoting Weather456:


Yea I know, but he asked where you place Wilma at 882 if you were estimating.

On the chart the nearest to 882 is 178 which is rounded to 180 mph.
Ok. Gotcha.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Wilma's peak winds were 160kts which is 185 mph according to NHC


Yea I know, but he asked where you place Wilma at 882 if you were estimating.

On the chart the nearest to 882 is 178 which is rounded to 180 mph.
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Quoting Weather456:


lol, I re-read your question.


180 mph.


This storm will keep me up all night... waiting for it to weaken, strengthen, whatever it will do. I do not enjoy the specifics of storm study, such as that crazy dvorak technique 456 explained, but a strong storm or landfalling storme keeps me awake with interest... drinking and eating crow all night :)
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WOOOOOOOOW!

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180235
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB
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Quoting Weather456:


The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific uses the same scale for pressure which both differs from the NW Pacific.
Ok, I just looked again. Thanks for the clarification.
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Hurricane RICK Forecast Discussion

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR.


THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE
SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER
LINDA IN 1997.
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Quoting Weather456:


lol, I re-read your question.


180 mph.
Wilma's peak winds were 160kts which is 185 mph according to NHC
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
`914mb in the Pacific is the same intensity as 935mb in the Atlantic so it would seem that even though the pressure might drop to the same as Wilma it would not necessarily mean it was the same intensity. Correct me if I am wrong please.


The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific uses the same scale for pressure which both differs from the NW Pacific.
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And the intensity models want to take Rick down a notch soonest. I think they are in disbelief...next post as to why.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting jipmg:


yes I know, but you said hurricanes with a pressure of 910MB are generally assosiated with 175MPH WINDS, what would that make wilma since its pressure was 882MB?


lol, I re-read your question.


180 mph.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Most tracks still at Baja at 0 UTC (and some of these are really to be disregarded on a system like this, BAMS, for example)



this could even bring wind and rain as far as texas. 0_o or become a noreaster or something. Scariest storm i've seen since Wilma.

because i cant get enough images of it...

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Quoting jipmg:


yes I know, but you said hurricanes with a pressure of 910MB are generally assosiated with 175MPH WINDS, what would that make wilma since its pressure was 882MB?


The statistic I gave you came from averages and a satellite intensity chart. Let's say Wilma was over the open Atlantic with no way to measure her internal pressure, they would of gone with the standard wind/pressure intensity chart which dictates that a 175 mph hurricanes are associated with pressure between 910 and 921 mb. Wilma and Rick are two category 5's but Wilma's pressure and winds were never estimated, as oppose to Rick.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.