Second warmest September on record for the globe
The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.
U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.
U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.
U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.
Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.
September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.
References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.
Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.
Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.
There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.
More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.
My next post will be Sunday or Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The white specks on a television screen resulting from weak reception.
Preferable over PcolaDan's definition!
storms are approaching or exceeding severe limits at the moment heading towards tampa
Ya im in st. pete and the sky is looking very ominous to the west
expect some cool air after they pass through =D
amazing its in the 50s in southern alabama.. and low 60s on the panhandle in 4 in the afternoon
nice ill be looking for those temps soon, i think they were saying 69 tonight.
Hey Tornadodude...see if they can't get you some bigger monitors. ;-)
haha I'll get right on that!
Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 49 min 53 sec ago
Clear
67 °F
Clear
Humidity: 61%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 25 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Gone:
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 65. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Sunday Night: Clear, with a low around 43. North wind around 5 mph.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 71.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
I know some scouts who are supposed to go camping in an hour or two. Is this a good idea?
Tropical Cyclone Warning #5
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
21:00 PM UTC October 16 2009
=======================================
Subject: "Rick" Continues To Rapidly Intensify And Further Strengthening Is Forecasted
At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Rick (981 hPa) located at 13.0N 100.0W or 235 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center
Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
75 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.2N 101.3W - 90 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.7N 103.3W - 105 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.0N 108.1W - 125 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 16.5N 111.5W - 120 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
Looks like most of the storms will be gone, and the line to the north doesnt appear to be building the far south.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
421 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009
FLZ049>051-162130-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-PASCO-
421 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PASCO...NORTHWESTERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH...THAT WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND NEW PORT RICHEY TO CLEARWATER...TAMPA AND SAINT PETERSBURG.
...UNTIL 530 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
&&
here is a good cheat sheet of basic and not-so-basic Linux commands: http://www.unixguide.net/linux/linuxshortcuts.shtml (Some of these will only administrator-permissible, most are not)
Reading back, I see the $ discussion.
$ in most linux terminal shells is how you signal a variable name for scripting and is also the command prompt, if it is set to be so. "$" is not to be typed as the first character in a command when using a guide or source of commands. For example, if I type (with > just being the command prompt):
>Tdude="Number One"
>echo Tdude
Tdude
>echo $Tdude
Number One
(the above example is for Borne shells, not tcsh)
Ok, awesome, thanks!! I cant mess with it until monday tho :/
hey Chris
=====================================
** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY LUPIT 0920 (0920) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC
00HR 14.4N 133.3E 975HPA 33M/S (65 kts)
30KTS 400KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 15.6N 131.0E 960HPA 40M/S (80 kts)
P+48HR 16.2N 130.3E 950HPA 45M/S (90 kts)
P+72HR 17.0N 128.3E 940HPA 50M/S (100 kts)
P+96HR 17.9N 124.3E 930HPA 55M/S= (110 kts)
cd $analysis_DIR
date -u ' %m %b %d %Y %H %j' > DATE
set YYYY = `awk '{print $4}' DATE`
set MM = `awk '{print $1}' DATE`
set DD = `awk '{print $3}' DATE`
set HH = `awk '{print $5}' DATE`
set YYYYMMDDHH = $YYYY$MM$DD$HH
mkdir $analysis_DIR/results/$YYYYMMDDHH
cd $metar_dir
set ntries = 1
perl metarprocess.pl > observations
set ob_count = `wc -l observations | cut -d ' ' -f1`
if ( $ob_count < 100 )then
if ( $ntries < 3 ) then
@ ntries = $ntries 1
sleep 30
goto getMETARS
else
echo "problems getting metar obs"
echo "problems getting metar obs" > analysis.txt
echo "for cressman analysis $YYYYMMDDHH" >> analysis.txt
set metar_check = no
set exit_code = 6
goto MailReport
endif
endif
I have much to learn, but I am getting paid to learn it, so its all good
It isn't nearly as hard as it looks at first. I remember wondering how long I was going to stare at it all with my eyes crossed before getting anywhere with it.
All of it made sense long before I thought it might, if at all.
Great, more model support for it. I was hoping to just bash the GFS on MJO some more and be done with it...
Umm, Floridians are not allowed in here. This is a Florida-free sanitized zone.
(really just kidding; nice to meet you, too)
yeah, but I live in Indiana, and go to Purdue, so not really close to you haha
yeah, I know it will click, just keep working on it
Sarasota here
True....63.3 degrees in Liberty,FL...just north of Defuniak Springs.....brisk winds.....
yeah, it is awesome, that is what I'm studying here
Where R U?
FSU is great too, but I love my Purdue, to each his own?
good deal, so you study oceanography?
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