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Caleb/WA Tropical Lows/24U

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:22 AM GMT on March 01, 2017


BLOG INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
24MAR2017 8:00 a.m UTC UTC/24MAR2017 3:00 a.m. CDT





The current conditions in my area (KILSTERL1) data

-------------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2017 season
=================================================
-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency


Tropical Disturbance Summary
==========================

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Next ID: TD 02

------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------

========================
Northern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: New Delphi


India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
===============================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

---------------------------------------------- -------------------

========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius
RSMC: Seychelles


Seychelles Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=====================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
06R.Enawo - 925 hPa
07R.Fernando - 988 hPa

Next ID: 08R

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth (90E-125E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (125E-142E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth

TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY 1
14.5ºS 100.8ºE - 40 knots 995 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
=======================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 14.5S 100.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.0S 100.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.5S 100.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.3S 100.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.9S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking south over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059 UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300 UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hours. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a southerly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (24MAR)
========================

At 2:00 PM WST, A small tropical low was located near 15.5S 117.9E (about 550 km west northwest of Broome) and moving east at about 25 km/hr. It is moving towards the Kimberley coast, but should slow down tonight before moving south during Saturday and then southwest on Sunday and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Monday: LOW

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
20U.Blanche - 988 hPa
21U.NONAME
22U.NONAME
- 995 hPa

Next ID: 25U

========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (142E-160E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane

TROPICAL LOW 24U
16.7ºS 151.8ºE - 25 knots 997 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
=========================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 16.7S 151.8E or 650 km east of Cairns and 610 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south southeast during today. On Saturday, the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west southwesterly track, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and early next week.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, may begin to be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.3S 151.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.0S 148.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
- 997 hPa

Next ID: 25U

------------------------------------------------ -------------

========================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi (east of 160E)
TCWC: Wellington (east of 160E and south of 25S)


Fiji Meteorological Services

Tropical Disturbance Summary
===========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
17F.NONAME - 1006 hPa
18F.NONAME - 1006 hPa

Next ID: 19F

=================================================




Will be posting in my blog as Grifforzer. My account will not let me to post as HadesGodWyvern here for unknown reasons..


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133. HadesGodWyvern
7:59 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
4:46 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 16.7S 151.8E or 650 km east of Cairns and 610 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south southeast during today. On Saturday, the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west southwesterly track, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and early next week.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, may begin to be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.3S 151.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.0S 148.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. HadesGodWyvern
7:45 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
3:09 PM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 14.5S 100.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.0S 100.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.5S 100.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.3S 100.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.9S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking south over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059 UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300 UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hours. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a southerly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. HadesGodWyvern
7:23 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:01 PM WST March 24 2017
=======================

At 2:00 PM WST, A small tropical low was located near 15.5S 117.9E (about 550 km west northwest of Broome) and moving east at about 25 km/hr. It is moving towards the Kimberley coast, but should slow down tonight before moving south during Saturday and then southwest on Sunday and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Monday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. HadesGodWyvern
5:32 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
12:36 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 16.1S 151.4E or 610 km east of Cairns and 600 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south. During Saturday the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a track towards the west, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine, including the Whitsunday Islands, may be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.8S 151.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.1S 151.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.5S 149.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 18.2S 147.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are significant differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over Sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is unrestricted in all quadrants, and may become enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to Proserpine of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. HadesGodWyvern
2:11 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:54 AM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 101.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.5S 101.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.1S 101.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.8S 100.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.75 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hrs. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. HadesGodWyvern
8:33 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:26 AM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.4S 100.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.2S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9S 101.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.1S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [02-03UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. HadesGodWyvern
2:28 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:02 PM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.0S 100.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 13.9S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.7S 101.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.3S 100.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15S.0. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. HadesGodWyvern
7:25 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:29 PM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (997 hPa) located at 12.6S 100.5E or 400 km east of Cocos Island and 610 km west southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb has formed in open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. Caleb is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction Thursday night and during Friday, away from the islands.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is expected to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 13.5S 101.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.3S 101.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 102.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.7S 102.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb has formed over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by visible satellite imagery. The low level center is exposed, just to the east of deep convection.

The intensity of 35 knots is based on an ASCAT pass from 0308 UTC, which showed gales to the north, west and south of the center. The low level center itself is elongated, and may consist of multiple centers.

Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 3.0, based on a shear pattern with the low level center just under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend, but FT and CI is set to 3.0 based on the combination of reasonably clear-cut cloud features, and the observed ASCAT winds.

The system has been aided by good upper divergence, with outflow evident to the north and south. Shear at this stage is quite high, at around 30 knots near and to the north of the system center. Shear is much lower to the south of the system center.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours, due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction.

The system may intensify slowly over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves into an area of lower vertical wind shear. However, ocean heat content becomes more marginal near 15.0S, and after Saturday the system becomes disconnected from the monsoon flow [and associated moisture]. So the expectation is for peak intensity to be reached during Saturday as a 40 to 45 knot system, before a gradual weakening trend commences.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. HadesGodWyvern
7:13 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:33 PM WST March 23 2017
==================================

At 2:00 PM WST, A tropical low was located overland near 20.6S 118.5E (30 km southwest of Port Hedland) and expected to continue moving south and is not expected to intensify over land. A Severe Weather Warning is current for the system for the Pilbara district [www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/].

Another small tropical low was located near 15.0S 110.3E (about 900 km north northwest of Exmouth). The low has a small chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity overnight Thursday or early Friday morning before weakening later Friday and Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
124. HadesGodWyvern
5:14 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:46 AM WST March 23 2017
==================================

At 9:00 AM WST, A tropical low was located near 19.6S 118.4E (about 75 km north of Port Hedland). It is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity before crossing the Pilbara coast later this morning or early afternoon. However squally thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur, mainly on the southern and eastern periphery, during Thursday and early Friday. Please refer to the Severe Weather Warning for the Pilbara district [www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/].

Another small tropical low was located near 14.7S 109.2E (about 1000 km northwest of Exmouth). The low is expected to move eastwards during today and tomorrow then weaken offshore from the Kimberley later Friday and during Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
123. HadesGodWyvern
5:12 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 23 2017
==================================

A tropical low pressure system is located southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland. It is forecast to drift southward for the next 24 to 36 hours, before turning more westward towards the tropical Queensland coast late Friday or on Saturday.

Conditions are favorable for this system to develop, and the probability of it forming into a tropical cyclone will steadily increase into the weekend.

This system is likely to make landfall on the north tropical Queensland coast early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: HIGH
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. HadesGodWyvern
1:45 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Additional Information for Tropical Low 23U
------------------------------------------------- --
The low has developed well overnight, with deep convection persisting to the west of the low level cyclonic circulation. Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 2.5, based on a CB with curvature averaging 0.5-0.6 degrees over the past 6 hours. MET is 2.0 based on a developing trend, but FT is set to 2.5 due to the fact that the cloud features are clear-cut. The system intensity is 30 knots, but winds on the northern side are reaching 35 knots due to the affects of a monsoon surge.

An ASCAT pass from 1509 UTC showed winds generally 25-30 knots on the southern side, reaching closer to 35 knots on the northern side with the monsoon surge.

The system has been aided by good upper divergence, with outflow evident to the north and south. Shear at this stage is quite high, with 30-40 knots near and to the north of the system centre. Shear is much lower to the south of the system center.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours, due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction.

The system should gradually intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves into an area of lower vertical wind shear. However, ocean heat content becomes more marginal near 15.0S, and after Saturday the system becomes disconnected from the monsoon flow [and associated moisture]. So the expectation is for peak intensity to be reached on Saturday as a 40-45 knot system, before a gradual weakening trend commences.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. HadesGodWyvern
1:27 AM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 23U
8:48 AM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) located at 11.7S 99.7E or 315 km east of Cocos Island and 670 km west southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

A Tropical Low is developing in open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone Thursday night or Friday morning as it drifts to the south southeast, away from the islands.

The system is expected to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Gale Force Winds
==============
180 NM in the northeastern quadrants
180 NM in the northwestern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 12.7S 100.4E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 13.5S 100.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. HadesGodWyvern
6:27 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:10 PM WST March 22 2017
==================================

System #1
---------------

At 9:00 AM WST, A tropical low lies near 17.2S 116.5E (about 410 km north northwest of Port Hedland) and will move south to southeast towards the Pilbara coast today and Thursday. It is not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity before it crosses the Pilbara coast on Thursday. However squally thunderstorm may occur, mainly on the southern and eastern periphery today and Thursday. During Friday and Saturday the system will weaken as it moves southeast overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: VERY LOW
Saturday: VERY LOW

System #2
---------------

A low is developing along the monsoon trough near 10.0S 98.0E northeast of Cocos Islands. The low is expected to develop further on Thursday and Friday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone during Thursday and Friday. However, it should move towards the southeast over open waters away from Cocos Islands and not impact the islands. The system should then weaken over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Saturday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. HadesGodWyvern
6:24 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 22 2017
==================================

A low pressure system southeast of the Papua New Guinea mainland is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the coming days, particularly from Saturday onwards.

At this stage, the likelihood for a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region is moderate - this rating should continue into next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Thursday: VERY LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. WeatherWise
1:47 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Hi Hades, My favorite shot of the day.

IMG_7824
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW XX
8:53 AM WST March 22 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 17.2S 116.5E or about 395 km north of Karratha and 410 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

The low is forecast to track to the south towards the Pilbara coast but is now not expected to reach tropical cyclone intensity by the time it reaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES are no longer expected to affect the Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
The TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is now no longer in effect from Onslow to Wallal Downs of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. HadesGodWyvern
1:20 AM GMT on March 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST March 22 2017
==========================

Tropical Disturbance 18F has weakened significantly and was located to the south of 25.0S and outside RSMC Nadi Area of Responsibility
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. HadesGodWyvern
8:39 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
tropical low may form into a category one cyclone in about 36-48 hours northeast of Karratha and cross Western Australia east of Karratha.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW XX
2:22 AM WST March 22 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 16.5S 116.3E or about 475 km north of Karratha and 490 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

The low is likely to move southwards towards the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Wallal Downs and Karratha during Thursday. GALES may extend to Onslow if the system takes a more westward track.

Heavy rain will develop along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and extend inland during Thursday and Friday as the system moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal Downs to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. HadesGodWyvern
1:21 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW XX
8:51 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.8S 116.1E or about 555 km north of Karratha and 570 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move southwards towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Port Hedland and Onslow during Thursday. GALES may extend to Wallal Downs if the system takes a more eastward track.

Heavy rain will develop along the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and extend inland during Thursday and Friday as the system moves inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal Downs to Onslow, including Port Hedland and Karratha of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. HadesGodWyvern
1:16 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 21 2017
========================

At northeast of the Mascarenes:
--------------------------------------------

Today, last observed satellite and analysis data show the existence of a broad clockwise circulation east of Agalega. But it doesn't appear totally closed, with little convection. This is likely due to a northeasterly upper constraint, on the edge of the upper ridge, in a rather dry environment. The center is located near 10.8S 59.6E at 1100Z.

Over the next days, the persistent lack of monsoon feeding, is likely to prevent from any significant deepening. Nevertheless, increase in the southern upper divergence, may help the building of a new low inside this circulation. Early next week, the arrival of an active Kelvin wave may enhance the environmental conditions and thus trigger a cyclogenesis. Currently, model guidance do not show a significant signal for the following days.

For the next 5 days, development of a moderate tropical storm is VERY LOW from Thursday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. HadesGodWyvern
1:12 PM GMT on March 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST March 21 2017
============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1008 hPa) located at 20.2S 176.7W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection fluctuating with poor organization. System lies south of an upper ridge in a high sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards with no further intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. HadesGodWyvern
8:21 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW XX
3:12 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.3S 116.8E or about 590 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland of Western Australia
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. HadesGodWyvern
6:36 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:06 PM WST March 21 2017
===========================

System #1
---------------

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650 km north northwest of port Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara coast during Friday.

The environment is not extremely favorable for development into a tropical cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday before landfall.

From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE

System #2
---------------

The monsoon trough lies along 12.0S between Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low is expected to form in the trough near 12.0S 95.0-100.0E (Cocos Islands vicinity) on Wednesday but should move away to the southeast. The system is expected to develop on Thursday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on Friday over open waters.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Friday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
109. HadesGodWyvern
6:33 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 21 2017
==================================

A low pressure system southeast of Papua New Guinea is forecast to develop over the next few days while drifting slowly southwest. While conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical cyclone development later this week, vast disagreement between models is evident
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
108. HadesGodWyvern
1:11 AM GMT on March 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST March 21 2017
============================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1008 hPa) located at 17.0S 175.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. HadesGodWyvern
3:36 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST March 20 2017
============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1006 hPa) located at 16.0S 179.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700hpa. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. HadesGodWyvern
3:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 20 2017
==============================

Suspect area northeast of the Mascarenes:
-------------------------------------------------

Neither the 0458UTC and 0553UTC ASCAT swaths, neither the last satellite imagery show any low level clockwise circulation. Associated deep convection is locally strong but remains disorganized and fluctuating. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1010 hPa. ASCAT swath shows a good polerward supply with maximum winds reaching 20 knots This area of convection evolves near the northern edge of the upper level ridge and is currently experiencing a eastward vertical wind shear. From Wednesday, a weak monsoon flow should re-establish and should improve the equatorward low level convergence but at the same time the trade winds are forecast to advect a relatively dry air mass within the environment (according to the MIMIC-TPW2 data of the CIMMS) that is not favorable to sustain deep convection. In the upper levels, the area should be located beneath a narrow ridge which should not remove completely the vertical wind shear but should improve the upper level divergence both equatorward and polerward.

In response to these marginal environmental conditions, ECMWF and GFS models don't deepen significantly any low level clockwise circulation. However the ECMWF ensemble forecast suggests a weak signal of cyclogenesis beyond Wednesday.

For the next 5 days, development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next two days, and the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm become low beyond.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. HadesGodWyvern
6:27 AM GMT on March 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:13 PM WST March 20 2017
===========================

System #1
-------------

A weak tropical low lies near 12.3S 119.4E (about 700 km north northwest of Broome). It is forecast to move slowly west and then south towards the Pilbara coast. While there is some uncertainty in the forecast track, there is a chance the system reaches the central or western Pilbara coast later Thursday or Friday. There is also a chance the system moves slower and tracks to the west before reaching the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: HIGH

System #2
-------------

The monsoon trough lies near the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low may form in the trough near Cocos Islands over the next couple days and then remain in the vicinity of Cocos Islands until later Saturday when it starts moving away to the southwest. The system is expected to strengthen over the next few days, with the risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone increasing towards the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on March 20, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST March 20 2017
============================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 18F (1007 hPa) located at 14.2S 179.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global model have picked up the system and move it southeastwards towards high shear.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
103. HadesGodWyvern
1:23 PM GMT on March 19, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 19 2017
==============================

Suspect area northeast of the Mascarenes
------------------------------------------------- ----
The 0432UTC ASCAT swath shows a very elongated low level clockwise circulation centered approximately near 10.0S 65.0E. Associated deep convection is strong but remains disorganized and fluctuating. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1010 hPa. ASCAT swath shows a good poleward supply with maximum winds reaching 20 knots in the southern semi-circle ( locally 25 knots by gradient effect) steered by a strong subtropical high belt. However, equatorward low level convergence is very weak. The low level circulation center evolves near the northern edge of the upper level ridge and is currently experiencing a southeastward vertical wind shear.

From Wednesday, a weak monsoon flow should re-establish and should improve the equatorward low level convergence but at the same time the trade winds are forecast to advect a relatively dry air mass within the low level circulation center environment that is not very favorable to sustain deep convection. In the upper level, the minimum should move beneath a narrow ridge which should not remove completely the vertical wind shear but should improve the upper level divergence both equatorward and polerward.

In response to these marginal environmental conditions, ECMWF and GFS models don't deepen significantly the low level circulation center that is forescast to move slowly westward. This scenario is support by the ECMWF ensemble forecast that suggests a weak signal of cyclogenesis for the next 5 days.

For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. HadesGodWyvern
6:07 AM GMT on March 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 19 2017
===========================

System #1
------------

The monsoon trough currently lies over waters south of Indonesia and across the Timor Sea. A tropical low is likely to form tonight or tomorrow in the trough a long way north of Broome. It is then forecast to move slowly west before turning south on Tuesday and Wednesday. The risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone increases over the next few days, with a Moderate risk on Wednesday. The risk increases to High towards the end of the week as the system tracks towards the Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Monday: VERY LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE

System #2
------------

The monsoon trough also extends to near the Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. From Tuesday there is a chance a weak tropical low develops in the trough in western parts of the region and possibly strengthens later in the week. Due to the trough in the vicinity of the islands, there could be increased thunderstorm activity at times for at least the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Monday: VERY LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. HadesGodWyvern
6:59 AM GMT on March 18, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 18 2017
===========================

System #1
------------

A tropical low may develop in the monsoon trough through the Arafura and Timor Seas later today or Sunday. If a system does develop, then it is likely to move westwards across waters north of the Kimberley and may reach the western Region on Sunday. The risk of this system becoming a tropical cyclone increases during the early part of next week as it tracks towards the Pilbara coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Sunday: VERY LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MODERATE

System #2
-------------

A trough lies near Cocos Islands and well south of Christmas Island with a couple weak tropical lows embedded in the trough. Either of the systems are unlikely to develop in the short term, however, there is a small chance of one of the systems strengthening in the west of the area (and possibly near Cocos Islands) next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Sunday: VERY LOW
Monday: VERY LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
100. HadesGodWyvern
5:55 AM GMT on March 18, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:22 PM CST March 18 2017
==============================

The monsoon trough is becoming more active in the Arafura Sea and Timor Seas, and a low pressure system is forming off the Northern Territory northwest coast. The low is expected to move slowly to the southwest through the Timor Sea during the next three days before it moves out of the area next week. There is a low chance of a Tropical Cyclone developing north of the Kimberley on Monday increasing to moderate on Tuesday. However if the low does develop it will be most likely west of the Northern Region.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Sunday: VERY LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MODERATE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. HadesGodWyvern
7:30 AM GMT on March 17, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:01 PM WST March 17 2017
===========================

System #1
-------------
At 1pm WST a weak tropical low was located near 14.0S 104.0E (south of Christmas Island). The low is forecast to move westwards over the next few days. The system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend, however there is a slight chance of the system strengthening next week over the far west of the area.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Saturday: VERY LOW
Sunday: VERY LOW
Monday: LOW

System #2
-------------
A tropical low is forecast to develop in the monsoon trough through the Arafura Sea today or on Saturday. Any system is likely to move westwards across the Timor Sea over the weekend and may move into the western Region on Sunday. There is a small chance that this system becomes a tropical cyclone on Monday though the risk increases during next week as it continues to move to the west or southwest.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Saturday: VERY LOW
Sunday: VERY LOW
Monday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. HadesGodWyvern
7:27 AM GMT on March 17, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST March 17 2017
==============================

A low pressure system is forming off the Northern Territory north coast. The low is expected to move slowly to the southwest through the Timor Sea during the next three days before it moves out of the area early next week. There is a low chance of a Tropical Cyclone developing north of the Kimberley on Monday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. HadesGodWyvern
8:04 PM GMT on March 16, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 16 2017
===========================

Cyclogenesis north of the Mascarenes:
-------------------------------------------------
One or several lows may form later this weekend within the monsoon trough. However, Sunday and beyond the monsoon inflow is expected to stop over the basin leaving this lows in marginal low level inflow conditions. The upper level conditions next week appear rather favorable with a good position over the upper level ridge.

The localization and the timing of this potential cyclogenesis still show some disagreement among the available numerical guidance. The more aggressive (IFS, NVG, UKMO) suggest a potential cyclogenesis early next week and the less aggressive (ARP, GFS) suggest a potential cyclogenesis beyond Wednesday. The location is still highly uncertain with the current space of possibilities going from close to the northeast coast of Madagascar to 63.0E from west to east and between 12.0S and 18.0S from north to south.

For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm becomes LOW to MODERATE from Monday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. HadesGodWyvern
6:28 AM GMT on March 16, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:09 PM WST March 16 2017
===========================

At 1:00 PM WST a weak tropical low was located near 12.0S 108.0E (southeast of Christmas Island). The low is forecast to move westwards over the next few days, passing south of Christmas Island on Friday. While the system is unlikely to develop in the next few days, there is a slight chance of the system strengthening later in the weekend or next week as it continues to move westwards.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Friday: VERY LOW
Saturday: VERY LOW
Sunday: LOW

System #2
-------------
The monsoon trough is strengthening over waters north of Australia. A tropical low may develop in the trough during Friday or Saturday. Any system is likely to move westwards across the Timor Sea and may reach the western Region on Sunday. It is only a small chance of becoming a tropical cyclone on Sunday though the risk increases during next week as it continues to move to the west.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Friday: VERY LOW
Saturday: VERY LOW
Sunday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
95. HadesGodWyvern
7:30 AM GMT on March 15, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:09 PM WST March 15 2017
===========================

A trough lies across northwestern parts of the region near 12S with a weak tropical low in the trough near 110E (east of Christmas Island). The low is forecast to move westwards over the next few days, passing just south of Christmas Island on Thursday and Friday bringing an increase to thunderstorm activity at times. The system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next three days, however there is a slight chance of the system strengthening later in the weekend.

The monsoon trough is strengthening over waters north of Australia. There is a chance a tropical low develops in the trough towards the weekend but is unlikely to move into the region until Sunday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. HadesGodWyvern
7:28 AM GMT on March 15, 2017
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE, FORMER TC FERNANDO (07-20162017)
10:00 AM RET March 15 2017
===============================
Southeast of Madagascar

At 6:00 AM UTC, Post-Tropical Depression, Former Fernando (988 hPa) located at 32.7S 51.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant, reaching locally 40 knots in the southeastern quadrant by gradient effect

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 230 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 35.6S 51.4E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 39.5S 53.6E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
==================
Last night, the deep convection, located over the southern semi-circle, has defected and remain only in the southern semi-circle. The cloud pattern is strongly sheared.

The system interacts now with an upper level trough. It appears that barocline process are gradually taking over diabatic process.

The track of ex-Fernando is forecast to track southward before to curve toward the southeast from Thursday.

The minimum should continue to interact with the baroclinic area and is forecast to merge with a wide mid-latitudes trough from Thursday.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from RSMC Seychelles on TC Fernando..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. HadesGodWyvern
1:02 AM GMT on March 15, 2017
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #23
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE, FORMER TC FERNANDO (07-20162017)
4:00 AM RET March 15 2017
===============================
Southeast of Madagascar

At 0:00 AM UTC, Post-Tropical Depression, Former Fernando (988 hPa) located at 30.7S 51.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 34.0S 51.1E - 40 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 37.6S 51.9E - 40 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
==================
Since 1900z, the deep convection, located over the southern semi-circle, is defected and the cloud pattern is strongly sheared. At 1900z, the system has been to the immediate closure of the buoy number 1400560, located at 30.1S 52.5E, allowing to estimate the minimal pressure at 988hpa. The system interacts now with an upper level trough. It appears that barocline process are gradually taking over diabatic process and the system is now classified as a post-tropical depression ex-Fernando.

The track of ex-Fernando is forecast to track south southwestward then southward before to curve toward the southeast from Thursday.

The minimum should continue to interact with the baroclinic area and is forecast to merge with a wide mid-latitudes trough from Thursday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. HadesGodWyvern
7:08 PM GMT on March 14, 2017
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #22
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FERNANDO (07-20162017)
22:00 PM RET March 14 2017
===============================
Southeast of Madagascar

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fernando (992 hPa) located at 29.6S 52.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 32.2S 51.2E - 40 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 35.5S 51.3E - 40 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 44.6S 60.0E - 40 knots (Depression se Dissipant)

Additional Information
==================
During the last 6 hours, the deep convection hasn't a lot evolved, or even has tendency to attenuate during the very last infrared imagery data. It stays principally located over the southern semi-circle of the Fernando's center. The cloud pattern of moderate tropical storm Fernando presents a northwestern shear. At 1700utc, minimal pressure is estimated at 992hpa thanks to the buoy number 1400560, located at 30.1S 52.5E, slightly south of the center.

The track of Fernando is forecast to track south southwestward over the western edge of the subtropical ridge before to curve progressively toward the south southeast from Thursday.

The system benefits from a good upper level divergence ahead an upper level trough, but the northwestern vertical wind shear is very strong over the system. The minimum should begin to interact with the baroclinic area and loose progressively its tropical characteristics. Thursday, the minimum is forecast to merge with a wide mid-latitudes trough.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
91. HadesGodWyvern
6:24 AM GMT on March 14, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 14 2017
===========================

A trough lies across northwestern parts of the region near 12S with a weak tropical low in the trough well east of Christmas Island. The low is forecast to move westwards over the next few days, passing close to Christmas Island on Thursday and Friday bringing an increase to thunderstorm activity at times. The system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next three days, however there is a slight chance of the system strengthening over the weekend.

Another weak tropical low lies in the trough south of Cocos Island. It is expected to weaken further as it moves slowly west over the next few days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. HadesGodWyvern
2:36 PM GMT on March 13, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 13 2017
============================

Area of disturbed weather 07-20162017:
------------------------------------------------
At 1000 UTC, the center of the area of disturbed weather is located near 24.0S 54.5E and moves southwestwards at around 13 knots. This system is expected to start for good the extratropicalization process of the low, that will dive quickly towards mid-latitudes

For the next 5 days, the likelihood that the system "07" becomes a tropical storm is VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. HadesGodWyvern
1:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET March 12 2017
============================

Area of disturbed weather 07-20162017:
------------------------------------------------- ----
At 10 UTC, the center of the broad circulation is located near 21.8S 61.2E (1000 hPa) and moves west southwestwards at around 13 knots. Another low level vortex was visible this morning, at north of the first one, testifying the lack of inner organization at ground level. Last ASCAT swath show maximum winds below 35 knots in the southeastern gradient, far from the center. This system continues to exhibit hybrid characteristics with asymmetries and baroclinic influence of the upper trough (convection enhanced ahead)

Over the next hours, this low is expected to track at southeast of the Mascarenes archipelago. Tomorrow, upper environment may become temporarily more conducive with a decay of the vertical wind shear associated with the trough. But decreasing oceanic potential south of 25.0S, is likely to prevent the minimum from regaining fully its tropical characteristics. From Tuesday evening, increasing upper constraint ahead of a new trough, is expected to start for good the extratropicalization process of the low, that will dive quickly towards mid-latitudes.

For the next 5 days, the likelihood that the system "07" becomes a tropical storm is VERY LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. HadesGodWyvern
6:29 AM GMT on March 12, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 12 2017
===========================

A very weak tropical low in the vicinity of the Cocos Islands is difficult to locate. It is forecast to remain in the area for the next few days before moving to the west by mid week.

This system is not expected to develop though periods of increased thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall are possible for the Cocos Islands until mid week due to the system or associated trough being nearby.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
87. HadesGodWyvern
7:43 AM GMT on March 11, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 11 2017
===========================

At 1:00 PM WST, a weak tropical low was located near 9.5S 93E, which is about 500 km west northwest of the Cocos Islands. It remains slow moving though is forecast to move to the south on Sunday, which would bring it into the Western Region. There is a small chance the system intensifies and develops into a tropical cyclone on Monday or Tuesday.

Periods of increased thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall and squally winds are likely for the Cocos Islands for the next few days due to the system or associated trough being nearby.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. HadesGodWyvern
7:41 AM GMT on March 11, 2017
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Gale Warning
ZONE PERTURBEE 07-20162017
10:00 AM RET March 10 2017
===============================
East of Rodrigues Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather 07R (1000 hPa) located at 19.6S 66.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
340 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
Extending up to 320 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 380 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.5S 64.1E - 35 knots (Zone Perturbée)
24 HRS 22.1S 61.3E - 35 knots (Zone Perturbée)
48 HRS 24.9S 56.3E - 30 knots (Zone Perturbée)
72 HRS 28.2S 54.2E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
==================
This morning, a low level center has appeared about 170 NM east of Rodrigues. Another center is suggested near 20.3S 67.7E. After re-analysis of previous data, it seems unlikely that it is the same center previously monitored during the past few days. Within the gradient area, ASCAT data show believable gale force winds far away from the center mainly in the southeastern quadrant. Due to the upper level trough interaction, the initial tropical system has evolved towards an atypical and complex broad low pressure system with strong winds far away from the center and mainly due to gradient effect.

Today, the track is expected to bend west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. From Monday, attracted by a trough in the south and with the eastward shift of the ridge, the track should bend southwestward again.

The intensity of the system "07" is guided by the trough which move northward and isolate in a "Cut-off low" structure in the northwest of the system. This should maintain a moderate to strong shear over the system, and whose intensity should not change, with the strongest winds in the gradient with the subtropical highs. Sunday and in the beginning of next week, the system will continue its track towards south latitudes.

This system currently does not justify regular tropical cyclone advisories to be issued. Therefore, this will be the final advisory from RSMC Mauritius unless regeneration occurs..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. HadesGodWyvern
7:32 AM GMT on March 11, 2017
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #36
Storm Warning
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, FORMER TC ENAWO (06-20162017)
10:00 AM RET March 112017
===============================
Southeast of Madagascar

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Depression, Former Enawo (985 hPa) located at 33.8S 48.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===========
95 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 240 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
350 NM radius from the center, extending up to 360 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 370 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 430 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 36.6S 44.5E - 45 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)
24 HRS 40.2S 43.7E - 45 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
==================
Ex-Enawo depict a typical extratrop satellite pattern with all residual deep convection within the warm sector or along the warm front. The track has shift southwestwards and has slow down a little compared at last night.

Ex-Enawo's track contain little uncertainty, steered by the western side of the subtropical ridge and then by a low-mid troposphere trough circulating in the south.

Sunday, ex-Enawo's low should merge with a surface trough associated with a mid-latitudes depression.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on ENAWO from RSMC Seychelles..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. HadesGodWyvern
1:01 AM GMT on March 11, 2017
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
ZONE PERTURBEE 07-20162017
4:00 AM RET March 10 2017
===============================
East of Rodrigues Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather 07R (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 69.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
Extending up to 340 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Locally gale force winds far from the center, in the southeastern quadrant up to 200 NM

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/2.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.8S 66.8E - 25 knots (Depression Residuelle)
24 HRS 21.8S 63.4E - 25 knots (Depression Residuelle)
48 HRS 24.8S 57.4E - 20 knots (Depression Residuelle)
72 HRS 29.2S 53.9E - 20 knots (Depression Residuelle)

Additional Information
==================
The ASCAT swap of 1735z and last imagery data show a large low level circulation without real defined center and this circulation is probably not closed. Consequently, the system "07" is now monitored in zone of disturbed weather. However, near gale force locally gale force is present far from the center in the gradient area to south. Over the last 6 hours, convective line maintain a severe convection at east of the system, forced by the upper-level through.

Today, the track is expected to bend west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. From Monday, attracted by a trough in the south and with the eastward shift of the ridge, the track should bend southwestward again.

The intensity of the system "07" is guided by the trough which move northward and isolate in a "Cut-off low" structure in the northwest of the system. This should maintain a moderate to strong shear over the system, and whose intensity should not change, with the strongest winds in the gradient with the subtropical highs. Sunday and in the beginning of next week, the system will continue its track towards south latitudes as a residual depression.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
83. HadesGodWyvern
12:54 AM GMT on March 11, 2017
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #35
Storm Warning
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE, FORMER TC ENAWO (06-20162017)
4:00 AM RET March 112017
===============================
Southeast of Madagascar

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Depression, Former Enawo (983 hPa) located at 32.7S 49.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 19 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
80 NM radius around the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===========
100 radius NM around the center, extending up to 320 NM in the quadrant southeast and up to 360 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
Extending up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 440 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 35.5S 46.8E - 45 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)
24 HRS 39.0S 43.6E - 40 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
==================
Ex-Enawo's circulation interacts now with the baroclinic area and a warm front appears south of the center. Extra-tropicalization is associated with a widening of the strongest winds which has been adjusted with 1914z ASCAT data.

Ex-Enawo's track should remain globally meridian, steered by the western side of the subtropical ridge and then by a low-mid troposphere trough circulating in the south. Well constrained by these structures, ex-Enawo's track forecast is thus associated with rather good confidence.

Sunday, ex-Enawo's low should merge with a surface trough associated with a mid-latitudes depression.
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