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March 1 2017 - March 31 2017

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:22 AM GMT on March 01, 2017

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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Northern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: New Delphi


India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius
RSMC: Seychelles


Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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March
06R.Enawo - 925 hPa
07R.Fernando - 988 hPa

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Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth (90E-125E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (125E-142E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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March
20U.Blanche - 988 hPa
21U.NONAME
22U.NONAME
23U.Caleb - 989 hPa

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Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (142E-160E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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March
24U.Debbie - 943 hPa

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Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi (east of 160E)
TCWC: Wellington (east of 160E and south of 25S)


Fiji Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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March
17F.NONAME - 1006 hPa
18F.NONAME - 1006 hPa


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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177. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:13 AM GMT on April 02, 2017
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
176. Grifforzer
6:11 AM GMT on March 31, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:01 PM WST March 31 2017
=======================================

A tropical low is forecast to move westwards across the Timor Sea over the weekend and into the Western Region by Monday. While it is likely to be a weak system as it enters the region, there is a small chance that it develops as it moves westwards south of Indonesia later next week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
175. Grifforzer
7:24 AM GMT on March 30, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 30 2017
=======================================

Tropical Low Caleb (23U) lies well southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and is moving steadily westwards. It will move west of 90.0E and out of the Western Region on Thursday night and is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

A tropical low is forecast to develop north of the Northern Territory and move westwards across the Timor Sea over the weekend, moving into the Western Region by Monday. While it is likely to be a weak system as it enters the region, there is a chance that it develops as it moves westwards south of Indonesia during next week and the risk of a tropical cyclone in the region will increase.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
174. Grifforzer
5:43 AM GMT on March 30, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 30 2017
=======================================

At 2:00 PM EST, Tropical Low Debbie (24U) was in the southern Central Highlands district. It will continue to move towards southeast Queensland, move offshore and away from the Queensland coast. It is not expected to redevelop as a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
173. Grifforzer
7:11 AM GMT on March 29, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST March 29 2017
=======================================

At 1:00 PM WST, Tropical Low Caleb (23U) lies well southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands, should track steadily westwards over next couple days and move west of 90E on Thursday or early Friday. While strong winds are possible on the southern side of the system, it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. Grifforzer
7:09 AM GMT on March 29, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:40 PM EST March 29 2017
=======================================

At 1:00, EST Tropical Low Debbie (24U) is approximately 100 km west of Moranbah. It will continue to move inland towards southeast Queensland and move offshore and away from the Queensland coast. It is not expected to redevelop as a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
171. Grifforzer
7:52 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #48
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY THREE (24U)
5:02 PM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 5:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 20.4S 148.4E or 20 km west of Proserpine and 60 km east northeast of Collinsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is a category 3 cyclone. The system is forecast to move slowly southwest over the next 12 to 18 hours before curving to a more southerly track over inland Queensland. The cyclone made landfall near Airlie Beach around midday and has started weakening while moving slowly inland. The system is expected to move further inland this afternoon and evening, and the peak winds near the center will weaken rapidly. However, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the region for the next 12 to 24 hours, gradually contracting southwards with the system.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Debbie continues to impact the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby mainland. The centre of the system made landfall on mainland coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach around midday today. Since then, peak winds have weakened, however wind gusts may still reach 180 km/h near the center for the next hour or so before weakening further.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Upstart and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay), including Bowen and Proserpine. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville late today into this evening. Destructive winds are no longer expected in Ayr, Townsville, Charters Towers, Mackay or Sarina.

GALES are occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Bowling Green and St Lawrence. These GALES are expected to extend westwards towards Ayr and inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah late this afternoon and evening. GALES are no longer expected at Townsville.

Abnormally high tides are expected between Bowen and St Lawrence. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district. These heavy rain areas are expected to spread further inland through central and southeastern Queensland. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm are expected, with significantly higher totals possible locally. This is likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Ayr and the NSW border, extending inland to parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 21.1S 147.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 22.1S 146.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 24.8S 149.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie crossed the coast around midday near Airlie Beach, and has since continued to move slowly inland. With land interaction, the eye has gradually become cloud-filled and less defined on radar, and convection around the eyewall has gnerally weakened. Observations during the day included a 10-minute mean wind of 103 knots at Hamilton Island Airport, and wind gusts of 262 km/h at Hamilton Island. Other non-official observations include a 247 km/h at Airlie Beach. These peak winds appeared to coincide with the passage of an eyewall mesovortex evident in radar and visible imagery. Recent intensity analyses have been based primarily on peripheral observations and the standard inland decay model. Dvorak not completed with the system overland.

Significant sea level anomalies were recorded on the DSITI storm tide monitoring gauges at Shute Harbour, Laguna Quays and Mackay, with a peak surge {with no wave setup] of around 2.7 meters at Laguna Quays. Significant anomalies are still being recorded at These gauges.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on merged radar imagery, primarily from the Mackay radar and peripheral observations.

The mid-level ridge to the south of the system remains the primary steering influence. Mean motion has been to the west-southwest at about 5 knots [9 km/h] during the past 12 hours; however superimposed on this track has been shorter term variations in direction and speed associated with internal rearrangements of the cyclone structure. The system is most likely to remain on a general slow southwest track further inland for the next 12 to 18 hours, with a subsequent curve to the south on Wednesday and southeast on Thursday as the ridge weakens and an upper trough develops through southern Australia. There is still high confidence in this track.

The cyclone crossed the coast with an intensity estimated at 105 knots. Since then, the system has weakened at a rate consistent with the standard decay model. As it tracks inland and curves onto a southerly and eventually a south southeasterly track during Wednesday and Thursday, interaction with the upper level trough over southern Australia may actually lead to an extratropical transition and possibly a slight re-strengthening of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence, including Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
170. Grifforzer
5:16 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
time: 3:00 PM EST
position: 20.3S 148.5E
10 min winds: 85 knots
wind gusts: 120 knots

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is a category 3 cyclone. The system is forecast to move slowly southwest over the next 12 to 18 hours before curving to a more southerly track over inland Queensland. The cyclone made landfall near Airlie Beach around midday and has started weakening as it moves slowly inland. The system is expected to move further inland this afternoon and evening, and the peak winds near the center will weaken rapidly. However, heavy rain is expected to continue across the region.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Townsville to St Lawrence, including Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. Grifforzer
4:21 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #45
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
2:00 PM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four located at 20.1S 148.8E or 45 km southeast of Bowen and 15 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is a category 4 cyclone. The system is forecast to move slowly southwest over the next 12 to 18 hours before curving to a more southerly track over inland Queensland. The cyclone is making landfall on the mainland near Airlie Beach, and will move gradually inland through this afternoon and evening. As the system moves inland, the peak winds near the center will begin to weaken rapidly.

Recent significant wind gust observations include:

- 262 km/h at Hamilton Island airport at 10:30 am

- 165 km/h at Proserpine Airport 12:57 am

- 148 km/h at Bowen Airport at 1:35 pm

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Debbie is now impacting the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby mainland. The center of the system is making landfall on mainland coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach with wind gusts potentially to 230 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Upstart and Midge Point, including Bowen and Proserpine, and will extend further along the coast to areas between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) during this afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Ayr and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, and Mount Coolon late today into this evening. Destructive winds are no longer expected in Townsville, Charters Towers, Mackay or Sarina.

GALES are now occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Bowling Green and Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further north to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Abbot Point and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district. These heavy rain areas are expected to spread further inland through central and southeastern Queensland. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150-250 mm are expected, with significantly higher totals possible locally. This is likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Ayr and the north southwestern border, extending inland to parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Central West, Maranoa and Warrego, and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Townsville to St Lawrence, including Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
168. Grifforzer
2:13 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
time: 12:00 PM EST
position: 20.2S 148.7E
10 min winds: 100 knots
wind gusts: 140 knots

The cyclone is beginning to make landfall on the mainland between Bowen and Airlie Beach, and will move gradually inland through this afternoon and evening. As the system moves inland, the peak winds near the center will begin to weaken.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167. Grifforzer
1:33 AM GMT on March 28, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #42
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
11:01 AM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 11:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four (943 hPa) located at 20.1S 148.8E or 65 km east of Bowen and 35 km north northwest of Hamilton Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
105 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
105 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone. While small temporary variations in the track have been observed, as happens with all cyclones, the system is still forecast to move slowly west-southwest and make landfall on the mainland between Bowen and Airlie Beach around midday, or early this afternoon.

Recent significant wind gust observations include:

- 263 km/h at Hamilton Island airport at 10:25am.

- 139 km/h at Proserpine Airport 10:22 am

- 120 km/h at Bowen Airport at 10:41 am


The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Debbie is now starting to impact the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby mainland. The center of the system is forecast to cross the mainland coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach early this afternoon with wind gusts potentially to 270 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the coast and islands between about Bowen and Midge Point, including Proserpine, and will extend further along the coast to areas between Ayr and Sarina during this morning or afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon during the day today. It is possible that these DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further south along the coast to St Lawrence today.

GALES are now occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Bowling Green and Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further north to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district. These heavy rain areas are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas today. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150-250 mm, with isolated event totals over 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T5.5/T5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.6S 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 21.4S 146.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 24.0S 147.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie continues to exhibits a clear eye on satellite and radar imagery. recent observations include a 10-minute mean wind of 103 knots at Hamilton Island Airport, and wind gusts of 262 km/h at Hamilton Island, 139 km/h at Proserpine airport and 119 km/h at Bowen. Other non-official observations include a 247 km/h at Airlie Beach. These peak winds appeared to coincide with the passage of an eyewall mesovortex evident in radar and visible imagery. These observations have led to setting the current intensity at 100 knots. Latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a LG surround, an addition of 0.5 for a B surround and an OW eye, yielding a DT of 5.5. MET and PAT were 5.5 and 5.5 respectively. The FT and CI were based on a three-hour average DT of 5.5.

Destructive gusts now being reported from the Bowen area. Observations of gales continue to be reported from south of Mackay; in the past few hours, wind speeds in the lower levels sampled by the wind profiler at the Mackay racecourse have leveled off or even decreased a little.

Significant sea level anomalies are now starting to be recorded on the DSITI storm tide monitoring gauges at Shute Harbour, Laguna Quays and Mackay with positive anomalies of approximately 1.0 to 1.5 meters and HAT exceed at Shute Harbour and Laguna Quays.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on merged radar imagery, primarily from the Bowen and Mackay radars along the Queensland east coast.

The mid-level ridge to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. Mean motion has been to the west-southwest at about 4 knots [8 km/h] during the past 12 hours; however superimposed on this track has been shorter term variations in direction and speed associated with internal rearrangements of the cyclone structure. The system is most likely to remain on a general slow west southwest track for the next 6 to 12 hours through landfall on the Queensland coast and further inland, with a subsequent curve to the south on Wednesday as the ridge weakens and an upper trough develops through southern Australia. There is still high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. After landfall the system should initially weaken at a rate somewhat faster than the standard decay model due to enhanced topography along the post-landfall track. However, as it tracks inland and curves onto a southerly and eventually a south-southeasterly track during Wednesday and Thursday, interaction with the upper level trough over southern Australia may actually lead to an extratropical transition and possibly a slight re-strengthening of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. Grifforzer
10:10 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
7:58 AM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four located at 19.9S 149.1E or 85 km east northeast of Bowen and 60 km north of Hamilton Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone and is forecast to make landfall on the mainland between about Ayr and Midge Point at around midday.

Recent significant observations include:

- 194mm of rainfall at Strathdickie (near Proserpine) in the one hour to 7:45am.

- Wind gusts of nearly 200km/h at Hamilton Island airport at 6:52am.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Debbie is now starting to impact the Whitsunday Islands and the centre of the system is forecast to cross the mainland coast between Ayr and Midge Point at around midday with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the centre.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the coast and islands between about Bowen and Midge Point, including Proserpine, and will extend further along the coast to areas between Ayr and Sarina during this morning or afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further north along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon during the day today. It is possible that these DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further south along the coast to St Lawrence today.

GALES are now occurring about the coast and islands between about Cape Bowling Green and Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further north to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the

normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district. These heavy rain areas are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas today. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. Grifforzer
8:29 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Debbie will be near Bowen in about 6 hours...

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
4:52 AM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 5:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four (946 hPa) located at 19.8S 149.2E or 105 km east northeast of Bowen and 75 km north northeast of Hamilton Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone and is forecast to make landfall between Ayr and Midge Point late this morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is now starting to impact the Whitsunday Islands and the center of the system is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Midge Point later this morning with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the Whitsunday Islands, and will extend further to the coast and islands between Ayr and Sarina during this morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further north along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville and Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon during the day today. It is possible that these DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further south along the coast to St Lawrence today.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday coast and south to Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further north to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the

normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas today. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.


Dvorak Intensity:T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.2S 147.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 20.8S 146.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 22.6S 146.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie has rapidly developed over the last 24 hours, and now exhibits a clear eye on satellite and radar. As a result, the latest Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a LG surround, an addition of 0.5 for a B surround and an OW eye and a subtraction for an elongated eye, yielding a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT were 5.0 and 5.5 respectively. The FT and CI were based on a three-hour average DT of 5.5. The final intensity was analyzed at 95 knots [10 minute mean] was inferred from the Dvorak satellite technique. This intensity analysis is broadly supported by observations of 77 knot [10-minute mean] winds at Hamilton Island airport at 1821UTC, though it is noted that this site is elevated at 58.66m.

Observations of gales continue to be reported from Mackay, though in the last hour the wind profiler at the Mackay racecourse has indicated a significant increase in low-level winds, which suggests that destructive wind gusts may begin in the area over the next few hours.

Significant sea level anomalies are now starting to be recorded on the DSITI storm tide monitoring gauges at Laguna Quays and Mackay with positive anomalies of approximately 1.5 meters and 1 meter respectively. Based on the current forecast track it is likely that severe tropical cyclone Debbie will cross the coast at around the time of high tide and could therefore lead to a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on merged radar imagery, primarily from the Bowen and Mackay radars along the Queensland east coast.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. Motion during the past six hours has been west southwesterly, but this has fluctuated at times during the night, perhaps due to a trochoidal component. The system is most likely to remain on a general west southwest track for the next 6 to 12 hours up to landfall on the Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Overnight last night CIMSS satellite winds showed the upper equatorial outflow became restricted, perhaps due to the passage of a weak upper trough. This led to stalled development last night, but the upper pattern has since returned to being more sympathetic to further development. This has occurred today and is forecast up until landfall. After landfall the system should weaken at a rate faster than the standard decay model due to enhanced topography along the post-landfall track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. Grifforzer
6:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
2:01 AM EST March 28 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four located at 19.8S 149.4E or 125 km east northeast of Bowen and 160 km north of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone. It may intensify further as it continues to move west southwest towards the Whitsunday coast this morning. Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) late this morning.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) late this morning with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the center of the system.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are occurring about the Whitsunday Islands, and will extend further to the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay later this morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville and Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon during the day today.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday coast and south to Sarina. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today. GALES could potentially extend further northwest to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah this afternoon and tonight.

Residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast late this morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the Central Coast and Whitsundays district and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas today. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the
Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon,
Moranbah, and Pentland of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. Grifforzer
6:16 PM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY FOUR (24U)
11:00 PM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 11:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Four (943 hPa) located at 19.6S 149.7E or 160 km east northeast of Bowen and 185 km north northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
65 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
65 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
65 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
65 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is currently a category 4 cyclone. It may intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the Queensland coast tonight. Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) on Tuesday morning.
:
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 275 km/h near the centre of the system.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are beginning to occur about the Whitsunday Islands, and will extend further to the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay later tonight. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville and Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon during the day on Tuesday.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday coast and south to Mackay. These GALES are expected to extend to the remaining coastal and island areas between Townsville and St Lawrence tonight. GALES could potentially extend further northwest to Lucinda and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland, Mount Coolon, and Moranbah on Tuesday.

Residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the central coast and Whitsundays district and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas tonight and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area this week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.0S 148.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 20.5S 147.0E - 45 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 22.1S 145.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 24.1S 149.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development during the last 12 hours, and now exhibits a clear eye on satellite and radar. Intensity is analyzed at 95 knots [10 minute mean] based on a three-hour Dvorak average yielding FT5.5. Patterns have generally featured an OW eye embedded in an LG surround, with a B or W surrounding ring for CF5.0 + 0.5 eye adjustment. This intensity is supported by the 09Z SATCON estimate of 101 knots [1 minute average]. NESDIS and CIMSS ADTs are generally higher at 120 and 115 knots respectively [1 minute average].

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars, and animated visible satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. Motion during the past six hours has been west southwesterly, but this has fluctuated during the day, perhaps due to a trochoidal component. The system is most likely to remain on a general west southwest track for the next 12 hours up to landfall on the Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Overnight last night CIMSS satellite winds showed the upper equatorial outflow became restricted, perhaps due to the passage of a weak upper trough. This led to stalled development last night, but the upper pattern has since returned to being more sympathetic to further development, and this is forecast up until landfall. After landfall the system should weaken at a rate faster than the standard decay model due to enhanced topography along the post-landfall track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the
Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon,
Moranbah, and Pentland. of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. Grifforzer
7:33 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY THREE (24U)
5:04 PM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 5:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Three (952 hPa) located at 19.5S 150.1E or 200 km east northeast of Bowen and 205 km north northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie strengthened into a category 3 system this morning, and is expected to intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast today and overnight tonight. Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall as a category 4 tropical cyclone between Cape Upstart and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occuring about the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby coast, extending south to about Sarina, and are expected to extend to the remaining exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and St Lawrence this evening, and potentially extending further northwest to Cardwell and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland and Mount Coolon on overnight and Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Cape Upstart and Mackay during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville overnight and during Tuesday and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, during the day on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the centre of the system.

Residents between Cape Upstart and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the central coast and Whitsundays and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas tonight and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.


Dvorak Intensity:T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.0S 148.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4) east of Bowen
24 HRS 20.4S 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland west of Collinsville
48 HRS 21.9S 145.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 23.9S 148.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development through today. Deep convection rapidly developed around the system center this morning, with a clear eye developing during the day. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on an eye pattern in IR, with a LG surround and OW eye, with +0.5 for eye adjustment DT of 5.5. MET and PT are 5.0. FT was based on DT but constrained to 5.0 due to Dvorak rules. SATCON has jumped dramatically during the day to about 90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.5. Forecast system to become category 4 in the next 6 hours.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it remains somewhat disorganized. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a general west southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track, although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at a standard rate following the recent period of rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Cardwell to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland ncluding Charters Towers, Pentland, Collinsville, and Mount Coolon of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from inland areas between Lucinda and Pentlandof Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. Grifforzer
4:33 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY THREE (24U)
1:52 PM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 1:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Three located at 19.1S 150.4E or 375 km east of Townsville and 250 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie strengthened into a category 3 system this morning, and is expected to intensify further as it continues to move west southwest towards the north Queensland coast today and overnight tonight. Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall as a category 4 tropical cyclone between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough, north of Mackay, on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday Islands, and are expected to extend to the exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and Mackay this afternoon. GALES could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today before potentially extending further north to Cardwell and further west to inland locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland and Mount Coolon on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Cape Upstart and Mackay during the afternoon or evening. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville overnight and during Tuesday and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 240 km/h near the center of the system.

Residents between Cape Ferguson and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas later today and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated falls of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Cardwell to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland of Bowen including Charters Towers of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from inland areas between Lucinda and Mackay including Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. Grifforzer
2:48 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY THREE (24U)
10:59 AM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Three (975 hPa) located at 19.1S 150.4E or 375 km east of Townsville and 250 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie has recently strengthened into a category 3 system, and is expected to intensify further as it continues to move west southwest towards the Queensland coast today. Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall as a severe tropical cyclone between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough, north of Mackay, on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occuring about the Whitsunday Islands, and are expected to extend to the exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and Mackay this morning and early afternoon. GALES could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Townsville and St Lawrence later today before potentially extending further north to Cardwell and further west to inland locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland and Mount Coolon on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Cape Upstart and Mackay during the afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further north along the coast to Townsville overnight and during Tuesday and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Townsville and Mackay on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 240 km/h near the center of the system.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur along the coast between Proserpine and Mackay on the high tides today.

Residents between Cape Ferguson and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas later today and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/T4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 19.6S 149.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3) east of Bowen
24 HRS 20.2S 148.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland near Bowen
48 HRS 21.3S 145.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 23.4S 146.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie showed little signs of development through the previous 24 hours to sunrise this morning. However in the past few hours, the long expected rapid development appears to be taking place. Deep convection has rapidly developed around the system centre, with possibly a ragged eye feature appearing. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on an eye pattern in infrared, with a DG surround and OW eye, subtracting 0.5 for ragged eye yielded a DT of 4.0. MET and is 5.0 and PT is 4.5. FT was based on PT as the DT was not completely clear. SATCON has jumped dramatically over the past 6 hours from 62 knots to 90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.0 System will be upgraded to a severe category 3.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it remains somewhat disorganised. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a general west southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track, although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate, reinforced by the recent fairly rapid development. This is above most objective guidance at this time. The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before landfall in the favorable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Cardwell to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland of Bowen including Charters Towers of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from inland areas between Lucinda and Mackay including Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. Grifforzer
2:30 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC CALEB (23U)
8:54 AM WST March 27 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former TC Caleb (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 97.7E or 90 km south southeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.6S 96.7E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 15.7S 95.6E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.0S 92.6E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 16.2S 88.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Caleb is now below tropical cyclone intensity.

The system was located using a combination of microwave imagery, ASCAT and visible satellite imagery.

There is no longer any deep convection around the system, with the low level centre exposed. An ASCAT pass from 1524UTC showed gales were confined to the southwestern quadrant of the system. Model guidance is consistent with maintaining this structure as the system tracks west, with gales remaining in the southern semicircle and no likelihood of it re-intensifying into a tropical cyclone.

Dvorak analysis is difficult with no pattern match due to lack of any deep convection. Trend was weakening with MET/PAT at 1.5. FT is 1.5 with CI held at 2.0.

The system intensity is 35 knots, due to gales on the southwestern side which are occurring as a result of the pressure gradient between the system and a high pressure ridge to the south.

The system will track steadily westwards over the coming days. Gales may persist to the south of the system during Tuesday and some of Wednesday. The system should then pass west of 90.0E late Wednesday or during Thursday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. Grifforzer
11:02 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
whelp, blog is broken again with my other account.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. HadesGodWyvern
10:58 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
7:41 AM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two located at 18.8S 150.5 or 390 km east of Townsville and 270 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as slowly moving.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is expected to continue moving west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast while potentially developing into a severe tropical cyclone during today. Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall as a severe tropical cyclone between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday Islands, and are expected to extend to the exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and Mackay this morning. GALES could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence later today before potentially extending further north to Cardwell and further west to inland locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland and Mount Coolon on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay later this morning or during the afternoon. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further north along the coast to Lucinda later today or during Tuesday and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 230 km/h near the centre of the system.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur along the coast between Proserpine and Mackay on the high tides today.

Residents between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas later today and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Cardwell to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland of Bowen including Collinsville of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from inland areas between Lucinda and Mackay including Charters Towers, Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. HadesGodWyvern
10:53 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
4:57 AM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 18.6S 150.6E or 400 km east of Townsville and 285 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is expected to continue moving west southwest towards the north Queensland coast while potentially developing into a severe tropical cyclone during today. Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday Islands, and are expected to extend to the exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and Mackay this morning. GALES could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence later today before potentially extending further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda on Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay later this morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during today and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 230 km/h near the centre.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and GALES could extend inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, and Pentland later on Tuesday as the weakening cyclone moves inland.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides today.

Residents between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas later today and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 19.1S 149.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.5S 148.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 20.3S 145.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 22.1S 144.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown little signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. Deep convective clouds with low cloud top temperatures continue to wrap around the system center. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on a curved band pattern with a 0.7 degree wrap and an additional 0.5 for white band, which yielded a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT were both 3.5. FT was based on MET as the DT was not completely clear. CI maintained at 4.0 as per the Dvorak rules. SATCON evidence suggests a system intensity of 62 knots [1-minute mean], which when converted to a 10-minute mean roughly matches the currently analysed intensity inferred from Dvorak.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated infrared satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the dominant steering influence, and this will maintain the system on a west southwest track until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning. There is high confidence in this track given the simple environment and excellent consistency among deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction models.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate. This is above most objective guidance, with the ECMWF deterministic model being an exception. The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before landfall in the favorable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is a possibility. However, CIMSS satellite winds and animated water vapor satellite imagery indicate that the outflow channel to the north of the system has weakened over the last 12 hours and therefore it is possible that the window for any rapid intensification may be diminishing.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Ayr, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland of Bowen including Collinsville of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, and inland areas including Charters Towers, Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. HadesGodWyvern
10:46 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:57 AM WST March 27 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 98.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
75 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.1S 97.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 16.2S 96.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.6S 93.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 17.4S 89.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using infrared imagery.

The system has been moving slowly westwards over the last 6-12 hours. The building low and middle level ridge to the south of the system will maintain general west southwest motion.

Dvorak analysis difficult with no pattern match due to weakening state. DT is 2.5. Trend was weakening. MET/PAT 2.5. FT is 2.5 with CI held at 3.0. Convection has diminished considerably over the past 6 hours.

Intensity set to 35 knots.

Microwave imagery: GMI at 0656 UTC showed an area of deep convection to the west and SW of the center. TC_SSMIS at 0909 UTC showed some deep convection to the west of the center.

CIMSS shear at 1200 UTC was east at about 5 knots with upper divergence to the south of the system. TPW continues to show drier air wrapping around the northern and southeast sectors of the circulation. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 26-28C.

Shear should remain low over the system until Tuesday when northwest shear may increase. Dry air entrainment and marginal sea surface temperatures should limit development. Caleb likely to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity during Monday. Gales may persist in southern quadrants until Wednesday due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. HadesGodWyvern
2:47 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:51 PM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (976 hPa) located at 18.4S 150.7E or 415 km east northeast of Townsville and 310 km northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is moving west southwest towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system early on Monday morning. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay overnight, and could extend to remaining coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence on Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may then gradually extend further north to Lucinda during the day Monday and overnight into Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 250 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and GALES could extend inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, and Pentland later on Tuesday as the weakening cyclone moves inland.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday.

Residents between and between Lucinda and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas on Monday and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.9S 149.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.2S 148.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
48 HRS 20.0S 145.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 21.6S 143.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
The amount of convection near the center of tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to wax and wane during the past 24 hours. Little improvement in the cloud signature has been seen over the past 6 hours or so. Currently the system has less deep convection than 24 hours ago, although association with the center and curvature have improved.

Intensity remains estimated at a 10 minute mean of 60 knots [category 2]. Dvorak technique gives DT4.0 based on both curved band and embedded centre patterns. MET and PAT are 3.5. Final T is 4.0. This is supported by the 0859UTC SATCON of 66 knots. NESDIS and CIMSS ADT are slightly lower at 57 knots and 55 knots [1 minute mean].

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars. The fix is consistent with infrared satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the dominant steering influence, and this will maintain the system on a west southwest track for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning. There is high confidence in this track given the simple environment and excellent consistency among deterministic and ensemble numerical weather prediction models.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate. This is above most objective guidance, with the ECMWF deterministic model being an exception. The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before landfall in the favorable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is a possibility.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Ayr, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and areas inland of Bowen including Collinsville of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, and inland areas including Charters Towers, Pentland, and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. HadesGodWyvern
2:39 PM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:46 PM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 98.7E or 470 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 980 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
75 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.0S 97.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 96.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 94.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 17.2S 90.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery.

The system has been moving slowly westwards over the last 6 hours. The building low and middle level ridge to the south of the system will maintain general west southwest motion.

Dvorak analysis [EIR]: center <3/4 degree from strong T gradient [although strong T gradient somewhat difficult to find], DT is 2.5. Trend was W-. MET/PAT 2.5. FT is 2.5 with CI held at 3.0. Convection has diminished somewhat over the past 3 hours.

CIMSS ADT at 1210 UTC had a CI of 3.2, NESDIS ADT at 1200 UTC was 2.9. SATCON at 26 0849 UTC was 48 knots.

Partial ASCAT passes around 02 UTC showed 35 knot winds to the southeast of the center.

Intensity set to 40 knots.

Microwave imagery: GMI at 0656 UTC showed an area of deep convection to the west and southwest of the center. TC_SSMIS at 0909 UTC showed some deep convection to the west of the center.

CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was east at about 5 knots with upper divergence to the south of the system. TPW showed drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system and starting to impinge on southeast parts of the circulation. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 26-28C.

Shear should remain low over the system until Tuesday when northwest shear may increase. Dry air entrainment and marginal sea surface temperatures should limit development. Tropical cyclone intensity is expected until Tuesday morning, although Caleb may weaken below tropical cyclone intensity as early as Monday afternoon/evening. Gales may persist in southern quadrants until Wednesday due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. HadesGodWyvern
8:14 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
5:30 PM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (976 hPa) located at 18.4S 151.0E or 450 km east northeast of Townsville and 340 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie has adopted a general west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this evening, and could extend to remaining areas between Lucinda and St Lawrence during Monday. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Innisfail and Lucinda during Monday evening or Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during Monday morning, before extending further northwest to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur south of Proserpine on the high tides on Monday. On Tuesday, residents between Rollingstone and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.9S 150.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.3S 149.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
48 HRS 20.0S 146.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland
72 HRS 21.3S 143.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern on Visible imagery with a 1.1 degree wrap, giving a DT of 4.0. MET and PAT agree, hence FT set to 4.0. ASCAT pass over the system at 22:45 UTC 25/3 was also useful for confirming wind radii. SATCON estimates have been suggested a system with an intensity of 65 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated visible satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12 to 18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Recent SSMIS microwave pass combined with SHIPS RI guidance suggest a period of rapid intensification is possible in the next 24 hours. Given this evidence, the intensity may be higher than forecast approaching landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lucinda to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Innisfail to Lucinda, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. HadesGodWyvern
7:59 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
3:00 PM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (994 hPa) located at 16.0S 99.4E or 505 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 920 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.0S 98.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.0S 97.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.9S 95.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.2S 92.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using visible imagery. After a slight weakening between 1800 UTC and 0000 UTC, persistent convection to the southwest of the low level center has continued during the day.

The system has been slow moving over the last 12 hours, however the building mid level ridge to the south of the system will start to steer the system to the west.

======
Dvorak analysis yields a DT of 3.0 using the shear pattern. MET and PAT are 3.0. FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 0540 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT at 0530 UTC was 3.0. Intensity set to 45 knots.

======
CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 15 knots. TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain 45 knots during tonight and into Monday before starting to weaken. There is a slight chance of intensifying to category 2 during Sunday night or early Monday morning.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, on Wednesday gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. HadesGodWyvern
4:42 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
1:52 PM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two located at 18.2S 151.2E or 475 km east northeast of Townsville and 370 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical cyclone Debbie has adopted a west southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely continue on a similar track and intensify further prior to making landfall between Rollingstone and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 200 mm, with isolated falls of 400 mm, is also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cardwell and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. HadesGodWyvern
2:45 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:54 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 18.1S 151.4E or 500 km east northeast of Townsville and 395 km east northeast of Bowen has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is starting to adopt a west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this evening. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Lucinda and the area north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.6S 150.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 19.0S 149.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3) east of Townsville
48 HRS 19.6S 147.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4) Overland Queensland near Ayr
72 HRS 20.7S 144.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.7 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 and PAT 3.5. FT was based on DT and PT. This analysis is supported by observations from Marion Reef and Lihou Reef and a recent ASCAT pass over the system; the ASCAT pass was also useful for confirming wind radii. SATCON estimates have been suggested a system with an intensity of 65 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated visible satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12 to 18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west-southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Recent SSMIS microwave pass combined with SHIPS RI guidance suggest a period of rapid intensification is possible in the next 24 hours. Given this evidence, the intensity may be higher than forecast approaching landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. HadesGodWyvern
2:23 AM GMT on March 26, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:04 AM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (994 hPa) located at 16.5S 99.7E or 570 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 930 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.6S 99.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.5S 98.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 96.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.6S 93.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using visible imagery. The previous 1800 UTC and 1200 UTC positions were adjusted slightly further northeast using new microwave imagery. Overnight from 1200 UTC convection weakened, however within the last 3 hours deep convection near the low level center has started to redeveloped.

The system has been slow moving over the last 12 hours, however the building mid level ridge to the south of the system will start to steer the system to the west during today.

======
Dvorak analysis is problematic with a weakening trend over the last 12 hours, however with a more recent burst of convection near the center DT remains at 3.0. MET is 2.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0 with recent convection. FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 2310 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT at 2330 UTC was 2.9 [weakening trend]. Intensity set to 40 knots.

======
CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 15 knots. TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain to 40-45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, on Wednesday gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. HadesGodWyvern
9:50 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
7:38 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two located at 18.0S 151.6E, or 525 km east northeast of Townsville and 475 east northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as slowly moving.

Tropical cyclone Debbie is starting to adopt a west-southwest track towards the north Queensland coast and is currently forecast to intensify into a category 3 system this afternoon. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Lucinda and the area north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence tonight. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday or during Tuesday morning, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay as early as Monday morning, before extending further north to Lucinda by the evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. HadesGodWyvern
8:24 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
4:41 AM EST March 26 2017
============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 17.9S 151.7E or 535 km east northeast of Townsville and 490 km east northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical cyclone Debbie is expected to adopt a steady west southwest track later this morning and intensify into a category 3 system this afternoon. Tropical cyclone Debbie is likely to intensify further prior to making landfall between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay during this afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence on Sunday night. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday, as well as further inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Lucinda and Mackay on Monday afternoon or evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity:T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.3S 151.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 18.7S 150.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 19.4S 148.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4) east of Ayr
72 HRS 20.3S 145.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Queensland

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has continued to show improved signs of development on satellite imagery over the last 24 hours. The latest Dvorak intensity analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap and an additional 0.5 for white band, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT were both 3.5. FT was based on MET as the DT was not completely clear. This analysis was supported by overnight observations from Marion Reef and Lihou Reef, which peaked at 50 and 46 knots respectively [10 minute mean]. SATCON at 1650UTC suggested a system with an intensity of 64 knots [1-minute mean], which roughly matches the analyzed intensity when converted to a 10-minute mean.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of imagery from Willis Island radar, animated infrared satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Steering has been weak for the past 12-18 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west-southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, which is currently expected during Tuesday morning, or at earliest overnight Monday. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay along the Queensland east coast.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Given the supportive environment, it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification, and the intensity may be higher than forecast. The recent SHIPS guidance supports the potential for rapid intensification, which is suggesting that it is a 30% chance of occurring over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. HadesGodWyvern
8:15 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:35 AM WST March 26 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (993 hPa) located at 16.5S 99.6E or 570 km south southeast of Cocos Island and 940 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.6S 98.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.5S 98.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 96.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.4S 95.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using enhanced infrared imagery.

The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking a bit more north, but in this scenario the system is likely to be weak.

============
Dvorak analysis is problamatic with recent burst of convection near the center. MET is 3.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0, and FT/CI remain at 3.0.

CIMSS ADT at 1740 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT was 3.0. Intensity set to 45 knots.

========
CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10-20 knots.TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain to 45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. HadesGodWyvern
2:09 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY TWO (24U)
10:44 PM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 17.7S 151.9E or 560 km east northeast of Townsville and 520 km east northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently intensifying, and is now a category 2 cyclone. The system remains slow moving at the present time. It is expected to adopt a steady west southwest track later tonight, which will continue for the next few days. Conditions will remain favorable for the cyclone to develop further before landfall, which will likely be between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay on Sunday afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence on Sunday night. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Lucinda and Mackay on Monday afternoon or evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.3S 151.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 18.5S 150.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 19.1S 149.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4) northeast of Ayr
72 HRS 19.9S 146.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1) Overland Queensland near Charter Towers

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has been slow moving for the past 12 hours. It has continued to improve in organization, and is currently undergoing a significant convective burst near the center. This has been reflected in the steady increase of peripheral wind observations.

Confidence in the center position is fair to good based on animated infrared satellite imagery, imagery from Willis Island radar, and peripheral observations.

Intensity is analyzed at 55 knots [10 minute mean]. Dvorak analysis using curved bands has averaged DT3.0 over the previous three hours, but this average has increased to DT3.5 during the hour and a half prior to the 1200UTC analysis [0.65-0.7 wrap with +0.5T for the band being white or colder]. MET and PAT are 3.0. Final T is 3.5. Automatic weather stations at Marion Reef [approximately 90 nautical miles south of the system] and at Lihou Reef [approximately 40 nautical miles north] have peaked at 50 and 46 knots respectively [10 minute mean], supporting the analyzed intensity. The intensity is also supported by ADT values. The observations and surrounding convection suggest an asymmetric wind structure at present, which is forecast to become more symmetrical as the system increases its organization. The pressure at Lihou Reef is dropping against the diurnal trend [991.8hPa at 12UTC].

Steering has been weak for the past 12 hours, however CIMSS satellite winds suggest a mid-level ridge building to the south of the system as forecast. This will steer the system to the west southwest for the next several days until landfall on the Queensland coast, expected overnight Monday or Tuesday morning. Deterministic numerical weather prediction models all follow this scenario with landfalls occurring broadly between Lucinda and Mackay on the Queensland coast. MOGREPS and GFS ensembles are consistent with this, although a number of 00Z ECMWF ensemble members have landfalls further north between Cairns and Lucinda.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at slightly above the standard rate. This is generally on the high end of the objective guidance spectrum, although HWRF and recent SHIPS guidance are similar. Given the supportive environment, it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification, and the intensity may be higher than forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Island of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. HadesGodWyvern
1:59 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:38 PM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (993 hPa) located at 16.3S 99.7E or 550 km southeast of Cocos Island and 920 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb has been moving southwest, but is likely to start tracking west for the next few days. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.4S 99.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.6S 98.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.4S 96.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.3S 96.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located with fair confidence using enhanced infrared imagery.

The system has been moving southwest, but is likely to start tracking west for the next few days.The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking a bit more north, but in this scenario the system is likely to be weak.

Dvorak analysis is problamatic with recent burst of convection near the center. MET is 3.5, but PAT adjusted to 3.0, and FT/CI remain at 3.0. CIMSS ADT at 1110 UTC had a CI of 3.0, NESDIS ADT was 3.0. Intensity set to 45 knots.

CIMSS winds indicates shear is 10 to 20 knots.TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal. Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

Shear should remain low to moderate over the system. However, dry air entrainment and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain to 45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2.

Caleb should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday with the environment becoming unfavorable due to likely dry air entrainment. However, gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. HadesGodWyvern
7:43 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
Hurricane Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY ONE (24U)
5:27 PM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.5S 151.8E or 640 km east of Cairns and 560 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at slowly.

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently a category 1 cyclone, but is continuing to show signs of development. The system has been relatively slow moving during today, but is expected to adopt a steady west southwest track in the next few hours. This general west southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the cyclone towards and eventually onto the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the cyclone as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the center.

DESTRUCTIVE winds are likely to develop about the Whitsunday Islands and nearby coast on Sunday evening, and extend to other areas between Ayr and Mackay overnight into Monday morning.

GALES are expected to develop between Ayr and St Lawrence from late Sunday afternoon and evening, and may extend to other coastal areas north to Innisfail during Monday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 18.2S 151.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 18.5S 150.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 19.2S 149.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3) East of Townsville
72 HRS 19.7S 146.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2) Overland Queensland, south of Townsville

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has a very large and impressive circulation featuring spiral banding over much of the Coral Sea, but until recently has shown little development near the center. However, it continues to become slowly organized, and convection has become a little more persistent near the center over the past few hours. This slow central development is fairly typical of very large tropical lows. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an mean sea level pressure observation of 988.7hPa at 0230 UTC 25/3.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. The system has been fairly slow moving in the past few hours, however there are signs that the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track is occurring, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems -- this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Ayr to St Lawrence of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cairns to Ayr of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. HadesGodWyvern
7:27 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:58 PM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (993 hPa) located at 15.7S 100.2E or 535 km southeast of Cocos Island and 830 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is moving to the southwest and should start tracking more west overnight. Caleb is forecast to weaken over open waters mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.9S 99.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.0S 99.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.0S 97.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.8S 96.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible imagery with some confidence in the position.

Dvorak: shear analysis was used for 06Z using visible imagery. The center was located <30 NM from the dense overcast. DT, MET, PAT and CI remain at 3.0. CIMSS ADT at 0540 UTC had a CI of 2.8, NESDIS ADT was 2.6. Intensity set to 40 knots.

CIMSS winds indicates shear at 0300 UTZ is 15 to 20 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

The building mid level ridge to the south of the system should steer the system to the west. Some model guidance has the system tracking east, but that number is decreasing. Some have the system tracking a bit more north but they have weaker systems.

Shear should ease in the short term and then is forecast to remain low. However, dry air entrainment and and marginal water temperatures should limit development. Thus, Caleb is forecast maintain 40-45 knots over the remainder of the weekend, with a slight chance of intensifying to category 2. Further dry air entrainment and and ocean heat content becoming even more unfavorable, the system should weaken during Tuesday and Wednesday, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. HadesGodWyvern
6:25 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:04 PM WST March 25 2017
================================

At 2:00 PM WST a small tropical low was located near 15.7S 121.3E (about 270 km west northwest of Broome) and was moving slowly east at about 5 km/h. The system is forecast to begin moving southwards later today then west to southwestwards during Sunday and Monday, staying off the Western Australia coast. There is only a small chance that the system develops into a tropical cyclone during Sunday or Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. HadesGodWyvern
1:48 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
Storm Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY ONE (24U)
10:58 AM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.4S 151.9E or 650 km east of Cairns and 580 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

The tropical low over the central Coral Sea has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system has been moving slowly southwards overnight, but has recently shown signs of shifting onto a west southwest track. This general west southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days, bringing the cyclone towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the cyclone as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

GALES are not expected to develop about the Queensland east coast today, however they could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, during Sunday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cooktown and Mackay, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.7S 151.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.0S 151.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.9S 149.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3) East of Townsville
72 HRS 19.5S 146.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland south of Townsville

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low has recently developed into Tropical Cyclone Debbie. The system is associated with an impressive, very large circulation, but until recently has shown little development near the center. However, it continues to become slowly organized, particularly near the center, where convection is finally becoming more sustained. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.6 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were both 3.0. This analysis was supported by observations of sustained gales from Marion Reef.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hour with an mean sea level pressure observation of 991.8hPa at 1800 UTC March 24th.

Until recently, the system was being steered to the southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. In the last few hours, the expected shift onto a west southwesterly track has been evident, as the upper trough moves further east, and a new mid level ridge builds to the south of the system. The latter is expected to remain the dominant steering mechanism over the next few days, keeping the cyclone on a west southwesterly track and taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. Given such a large circulation, it can be expected that the system will have some effect back onto the surrounding steering systems --this is part of the reason for the drift to more southerly tracks recently. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there remain some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water. It should also be noted that a significant proportion of EC Ensemble tracks remain to the north of the current cluster of deterministic forecasts, taking the system onto the coast north of Cardwell.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is excellent in all quadrants. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence, including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. HadesGodWyvern
1:39 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:04 AM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (989 hPa) located at 15.5S 100.5E or 540 km southeast of Cocos Island and 800 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of today. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.7S 100.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.8S 100.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 98.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.2S 97.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery over the past 12 hours with some confidence in the position.

Dvorak: Shear analyses were used over the past 6-12 hours with enhanced infrared imagery. The center was located <30 NM from the strong temperature gradient. DTs were 3.0. Trend was D. MET was 3.5, PAT was 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0. CIMSS ADT at 0000 UTC had a CI of 2.7, NESDIS ADT was 2.3.

Intensity set to 45 knots based on ASCAT pass at 14:30 UTC.

CIMSS winds shows some poleward outflow and upper divergence to the south of Caleb.Wind shear at 0000 UTC was estimated at east around 15 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and Sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

HWRF and GFS model runs at 0000 UTC have an east/southeast track whilst the majority of numerical weather prediction have a general southerly track then westerly track and this is favored. The break in the mid level ridge is producing the southerly movement. As the ridge rebuilds to the south, Caleb will track towards the west.

Caleb is expected to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 3 days with intensity of 40-45 knots. Shear should remain low but dry air and unfavorable water temperatures should limit development. Shear should remain about 10-15 knots. From 27 March the system should start weaken, due to further dry air entrainment and unfavorable oceanic conditions, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. HadesGodWyvern
10:12 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:32 AM WST March 25 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (992 hPa) located at 15.4S 100.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of today. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.1S 100.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 100.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.1S 98.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.9S 96.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery over the past 12 hours. Caleb was located over open waters well to the southeast of the Cocos [Keeling] Islands.

Dvorak: Shear analyses were used over the past 6-12 hours with visible and enhanced infrared imagery. The centre was located <30nm from the edge on visible and <30nm from the strong temperature gradient on enhanced infrared. DTs were 3.0. Trend was D-. MET/PAT were 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0 with intensity of 40 knots.

CIMSS ADT at 1200 UTC had a CI of 2.5, NESDIS ADT was 2.3. The latest SATCON intensity at 0245UTC was 46 knots.

Microwave imagery: AMSR2 pass at 0524 UTC showed the low level circulation center to the east of a band of deep convection. TC_SSMIS at 0935 UTC showed the low level circulation center also to the east of the deep convection, which is limited to the southwest quadrant.

CIMSS winds shows some poleward outflow and upper divergence to the south of Caleb.Wind shear at 1200 UTC was estimated at NE around 20 knots.

ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC only sampled the eastern part of Caleb. This showed northeast to southeast winds up to around 30 knots. ASCAT passes around 1520 UTC showed clockwise winds 30 to 40 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and sea surface temperature are 27-29C.

HWRF and GFS model runs at 0000 UTC have an east/southeast track whilst the majority of numerical weather prediction have a general southerly track then westerly track and this is favored. The break in the mid level ridge is producing the southerly movement. As the ridge rebuilds to the south, Caleb will track towards the west.

Caleb is expected to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 3 to 4 days with intensity of 40-45 knots. Shear should drop and remain about 10-15 knots. From 28 March the system should weaken, if not earlier due to dry air and unfavorable oceanic conditions, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. HadesGodWyvern
10:05 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
4:44 AM EST March 25 2017
============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (992 hPa) located at 17.0S 152.2E or 620 km east northeast of Townsville and 680 km east of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 2 knots.

The tropical low has moved slowly overnight while steadily developing. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west-southwest track today, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and into early next week.

GALES are not expected to develop about the Queensland east coast today, however they could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, during Sunday.

Based on the current forecast track, abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront.

Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas into Sunday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cooktown and Mackay, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.3S 152.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.1S 147.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4) East of Townsville/North of Bowen

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low continues to become slowly organized, with increasing broad curvature evident and transient bursts of curved convection near the center. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.4 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were both 2.5. FT based on MET. This analysis was supported by ASCAT-B scatterometer data at 1157UTC, which indicated a broad area of 30 knot winds around the system.

Confidence in the location of the system is considered good based on Willis Island radar imagery and surface observations from Lihou Reef. Pressure observations have declined significantly at Lihou Reef over the last 24 hours with an mean sea level pressure observation of 991.8hPa at 1800UTC.

The system is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. HadesGodWyvern
2:09 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:43 PM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (994 hPa) located at 14.9S 100.7E or 515 km southeast of Cocos Island and 730 km southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb will continue moving to the south over open waters southeast of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands for the remainder of Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, Caleb should track towards the west and is forecast to weaken over open waters early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Caleb is not expected to produce gales over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.8S 100.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.2S 100.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.2S 98.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.9S 97.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb was located using visible and microwave imagery over the past 6 hours. Caleb was located over open waters well to the southeast of the Cocos [Keeling] Islands.

Dvorak: Shear analyses were used over the past 3-6 hours with visible and enhanced infrared imagery. The center was located <30nm from the edge on visible and<30nm from the strong temperature gradient on enhanced infrared. DTs were 3.0. Trend was D-. MET/PAT were 3.0. FT/CI set to 3.0 with intensity of 40 knots.

CIMSS ADT at 1200 UTC had a CI of 2.5, NESDIS ADT was 2.3. The latest SATCON intensity at 0245UTC was 46 knots.

Microwave imagery: AMSR2 pass at 0524 UTC showed the low level circulation center to the east of a band of deep convection. TC_SSMIS at 0935 UTC showed the low level circulation central to the east of the deep convection, which is limited to the southwest quadrant.

CIMSS winds shows some poleward outflow and upper divergence to the south of Caleb.Wind shear at 1200 UTC was estimated at northeast around 20 knots.

ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC only sampled the eastern part of Caleb. This showed northeast to southeast winds up to around 30 knots.

TPW shows drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the system. Ocean Heat Content is marginal and sea surface temperatures are 27-29C.

HWRF and GFS model runs at 0000 UTC have an east/southeast track whilst the majority of numerical weather prediction models have a general southerly track then westerly track and this is favored. The break in the mid level ridge is producing the southerly movement. As the ridge rebuilds to the south, Caleb will track towards the west.

Caleb is expected to remain a tropical cyclone over the next 3 to 4 days with intensity of 40-45 knots. Shear should drop and remain about 10-15 knots. From March 28th the system should weaken, if not earlier due to dry air and unfavorable oceanic conditions, but gales may persist in southern quadrants due to a strong pressure gradient with a ridge to the south.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. HadesGodWyvern
2:01 PM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
10:46 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 9:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.9S 151.9E or 650 km east of Cairns and 600 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 2 knots.

The tropical low has moved south southeast during today and has slowly continued to develop. On Saturday, the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west-southwest track, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and early next week.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, may begin to be affected by this expected tropical cyclone from Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.4S 151.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.0S 148.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4) East of Townsville/North of Bowen

Additional Information
=================
Position fair based on Willis Island radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

The system continues to become slowly organized, with increasing broad curvature evident and transient bursts of curved convection near the center. Dvorak analysis based on a three hourly average of curved bands, averaging to approximately an 0.35 wrap. DT is therefore 2.0. MET agrees. Final T 2.0.

The system is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast. The intensity forecast is based on slightly more than a standard rate of intensification; given the favorable environment it is likely that there will be periods of more rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. HadesGodWyvern
7:59 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
4:46 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 16.7S 151.8E or 650 km east of Cairns and 610 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south southeast during today. On Saturday, the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a west southwesterly track, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend and early next week.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and St Lawrence, including the Whitsunday Islands, may begin to be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 17.3S 151.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 151.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.3S 150.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 19.0S 148.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south southeast by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants, and may become further enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to St Lawrence including Cairns, Townsville and Mackay of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. HadesGodWyvern
7:45 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
3:09 PM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 14.5S 100.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 15.0S 100.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.5S 100.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.3S 100.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.9S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking south over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059 UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300 UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hours. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a southerly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. HadesGodWyvern
7:23 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:01 PM WST March 24 2017
=======================

At 2:00 PM WST, A small tropical low was located near 15.5S 117.9E (about 550 km west northwest of Broome) and moving east at about 25 km/hr. It is moving towards the Kimberley coast, but should slow down tonight before moving south during Saturday and then southwest on Sunday and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Monday: LOW
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. HadesGodWyvern
5:32 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 24U
12:36 PM EST March 24 2017
============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 16.1S 151.4E or 610 km east of Cairns and 600 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

The tropical low has been showing signs of strengthening and has been moving towards the south. During Saturday the low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone and adopt a track towards the west, bringing it towards the north Queensland coast. Conditions are expected to favor the continued intensification of the system as it approaches the coast over the weekend.

GALES are not expected along the coast in the next 24 hours.

However, given the expected intensification of the low and the forecast track towards the coast, coastal and island communities between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine, including the Whitsunday Islands, may be affected by this expected tropical cyclone during Saturday evening or Sunday morning.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 16.8S 151.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.1S 151.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.5S 149.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 18.2S 147.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================
Position fix is considered fair based on a combination of animated visible imagery, Willis Island radar and peripheral surface observations. The tropical low has been showing signs of development over the past 24 hours. Multiple episodes of deep convection, showing some curvature, have developed near the center in the past 12 to 24 hours, although they have remained somewhat transient in nature. Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band wrapping 0.4 to 0.5 in both Vis and IR imagery, yielding a DT of 2.5. Given the transient nature of this convection though, the FT was biased towards the MET and PT of 2.0.

The low is currently being steered to the south by the combination of a mid level ridge to the east, and an upper level trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea. During the weekend, this trough is expected to move further east, and a new mid level ridge should build to the south of the system, leading to a change to a westerly track, taking the cyclone onto the Queensland coast. All model guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are significant differences in forward speed among the guidance, which affects not only the time of impact, but also the length of time available for the system to intensify over the water.

The system is located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over Sea surface temperatures of 29-30C. Upper level outflow is unrestricted in all quadrants, and may become enhanced to the south due to the weak interaction with the upper trough. Overall, the environment will remain supportive of intensification right up to landfall on the Queensland coast, and it is reasonably likely that the system will have sufficient time over water to reach category 3 status. A period of more rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, which would lead to a higher category system at landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Tribulation to Proserpine of Queensland
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. HadesGodWyvern
2:11 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
8:54 AM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 101.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters south of Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.5S 101.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.1S 101.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.8S 100.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters south of the Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave imagery overnight to the southeast of the deep convection. Curvature of the deep convection on the 2059UTC microwave image continues to remain weak and cloud tops have warmed over the last several hours.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.75 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal northwest flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, and a slight decrease in the shear over the system. Counterbalancing this has been a weakening upper-level outflow pattern. Although the system is moving into a more neutral shear environment, it appears drier air is starting to entrain through the northeast flank and the system will become isolated from the monsoon flow in the next 12 to 24 hrs. The ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models do differ on the extent of the eastward movement before recurving towards the west.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. HadesGodWyvern
8:33 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
2:26 AM WST March 24 2017
============================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.4S 100.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.2S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.9S 101.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.1S 100.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [02-03UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15.0S. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. HadesGodWyvern
2:28 PM GMT on March 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CALEB, CATEGORY ONE (23U)
9:02 PM WST March 23 2017
============================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Caleb, Category One (995 hPa) located at 13.0S 100.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Caleb should continue moving to the south southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands. It is forecast to remain over open waters, and is not expected to produce gales over Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western Australia mainland.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 13.9S 101.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.7S 101.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.5S 101.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.3S 100.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Caleb is tracking southeast over open waters between Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located by microwave and extrapolated Visible imagery located near the southeastern edge of the deep convection. While convection has developed closer to the center indicating further development curvature of deep convection has not increased as evident by the 0949UTC microwave image.

The intensity of 40 knots is influenced by earlier ASCAT passes [0200-0300UTC], which showed gales to the north, west and south of the somewhat elongated center. This is a little higher than the Dvorak analysis which yields a FT/CI of 2.5. This is based on a shear pattern with the low level center under 0.5 degrees from the edge of the deep convection. Adjusted MET is 2.5 based on a developing trend.

Development has been supported by strong low-level forcing from monsoonal NW flow to the north and southeasterly surge from the sub-tropical high to the south, combined with upper-level outflow to the south. This has outweighed the ongoing strong easterly shear [25-30 knots]. The cyclone has some potential to develop in the next 24 hours before becoming disconnected from the monsoon flow and dry air is entrained in the northeast sector. Although the shear should ease, the ocean heat content becomes more marginal south of 15S.0. Gales in southern quadrants are likely to be maintained for several days from the strong southeast synoptic flow as a new sub-tropical ridge builds to the south early next week.

The system is forecast to move in a south to southeasterly direction over the coming 48 hours due to a strong monsoonal surge to the north and a mid level trough and low to the southeast. Motion should become slow on Sunday as a mid-level ridge starts to develop to the south of the system, and then from Monday onward this should begin to steer the system in a westerly direction although models.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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