TC Leepi/Emong - Sea East Of The Philippines

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
6:00 AM FST December 31 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06F (1008 hPa) located at 19.0S 165.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperatures are around 27C.

Convection and organization has slightly increased in the last 24 hours with convection present in the sector from northeast through east to south of the center. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and are slowly moving it southward with slight intensification.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
10:00 AM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 10.9S 58.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds 35 knots up to 100 NM from the center, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 57.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 12.7S 56.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.2S 55.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.5S 54.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Infrared satellite picture depicts an important area of deep convection in the western semi-circle. microwave imagery SSMIS at 04.15z confirms the convective band west of the low level circulation center.

ASCAT data from 0600z support current intensity and still depict a singular wind structure with weak winds roughly within 1 degree from the center and strong winds far from the center (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th.

Lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 48 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 48 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 36 hours.

On and after j+4, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft and system should begin to track over cooler sea surface temperatures. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between j+4 and j+5.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:52 AM WST December 31 2012
=================================

"Mitchell" is near 27.7S 108.0E and moving south southwest. It is not expected to re-intensify.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY FOUR (05F)
18:00 PM FST December 31 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (950 hPa) located at 16.9S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Eye cloud filled, thus no longer discernible in infrared/visible. Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center over past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperatures are around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 17.9S 161.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 161.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.5S 162.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
18:00 PM FST December 31 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1005 hPa) located near 22.2S 164.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor during past 24 hours. Convection persistent to the east of the partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies under a shortwave upper trough in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moves it southwestward with a slight intensification.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
16:00 PM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 11.8S 57.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 100 NM from the center, up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.4S 57.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 13.5S 56.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 18.1S 54.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.2S 54.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Microwave imagery TRMM at 0701z depicts few evolution of the deep convection organization during the past 6 hours, with offset northwest of the low level circulation center.

Structure and intensity of the system are almost stable within the past 6 hours (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general southwestwards track for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system with a northerly steering flow. Consequently, the system should track southwards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th. Last available numerical weather prediction models forecast a faster movement on and after 24 hours, so the closest point of approach of Réunion island is forecast about 6 hours sooner than the previous issue.

Intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the previous issue. Indeed, lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 36 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 36 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 24 hours. During night from Thursday to Friday, system should undergo cooler sea surface temperature.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Thursday and Friday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET December 31 2012
===================================

Area of disturbed weather at the extreme East of the basin: Convection remains very fluctuating. According to microwave imagery (SSMIS 0233Z) the low level circulation center is located near 9.5S/87.5E. The circulation is poorly defined. System moves westward at about 10kt. mean sea low pressure is estimated at 1002 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 15-20 knots near the center. Most of the available numerical weather prediction models don't deepen this system significantly during the next 3 days. Upper level wind shear remains the main limiting factor for the development of this low.

For the next 72 hours, potential for the development of another tropical depression east of the basin is poor to fair.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY THREE (05F)
0:00 AM FST January 1 2013
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (967 hPa) located at 17.7S 161.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.0 MET=4.5 PT=4.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.O/W1.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement and weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 18.6S 161.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.6S 161.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.2S 163.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
22:00 PM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (995 hPa) located at 11.9S 57.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 100 NM from the center, up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.1S 56.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 14.2S 56.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 19.1S 54.7E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.3S 54.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Microwave imagery SSMIS at 1408z depicts few evolution of the deep convection organization, with offset west of the low level circulation center, due to the persistent easterly wind shear.

Structure and intensity of the system are almost stable within the past 6 hours (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general south westwards track for the next 12 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system with a northerly steering flow. Consequently, the system should track southwards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th.

Intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the previous issue. Indeed, lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperature). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 24 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 24 hours. Beyond, located under the upper level ridge, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 24 hours. During night from Thursday to Friday, system should undergo cooler sea surface temperatures.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Thursday and Friday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY THREE (05F)
6:00 AM FST January 1 2013
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (965 hPa) located at 18.5S 162.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. System is being steered south southeast by deep layer northwesterly. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5 MET=4.5, and PT=4.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement and then southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 19.4S 161.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.3S 162.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.6S 163.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)