The Northeast Weather Blog...

Quoting techteacher1:


Devon over by the salt marsh. Lovely weather we've been having. Hurricane to nor'easter, within a week. What's next, tornados?

Well, we already had the earthquake a couple days ago (2.2 in north jersey).

So I'm guessing we're due for a volcanic eruption.

Maybe during the mini "heat" wave we're about to get Sun-Mon.

Hurricane, Earthquake, Blizzard, Heat Wave? LOL

Just got woken up by a huge crash from a large tree splitting open like a bannana. Many more limbs have cracked since earlier.

Looking outside it appears my cleanly shoveled driveway has about 3 inches of new snow on it. I cleared it and then had measured the 7.5 reading a little after 9PM. So we have around 10.5 that i can tell. Certainly not going outside.

Snowing heavily right now. Amazing... it's a total war zone now. Whole maples encased in so much snow they look like a kid's drawing.

Power? How...I don't know.

Kinda hard to sleep to continued crack crack CRASH.

Thank God nothing truly threatens the house beyond maybe a little siding damage at worst.


Tinton Falls, NJ - 31F. It just keeps snowing.

BTW - Maybe we all owe the NAM an apology? It saw insane snowfall potential...and this is what we got.

This was issued when I probably had around 9 to 9.5 inches.



1253 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

ONE LAST SNOW BAND PUSH
THE PERSISTENT MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING LOOKS TO BE WINDING DOWN
ACROSS MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. AS THE NOR'EASTER
CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST IT WILL PULL
THE FINAL SNOW BANDS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. STILL EXPECT
1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. ALREADY HAVE REPORTS NEARING DOUBLE DIGITS IN
MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES. WE COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER 3 TO 4 INCHES
FROM THIS FINAL PUSH.

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
FREEHOLD 9.5 1100 PM 11/07 PUBLIC


At 11PM, Freehold not too far to my West, got 9.5"

Amazing that everyone that just about everone that was hit hard by Sandy last week is getting all of the nasty weather this week. In Harrisburg we didn't get any rain or snow and only a slight wind. The news from the morning shows in New York should be interesting in the morning with all of the storm damage being reported. A lot more people without power. PPL area only has 12 outages reported which would be in most of South Eastern and parts of Central Pennsylvania.

I had sleet and snow showers yesterday several times. No sticking of course.

Going out now to clean up for clients, but at least the temps rose above freezing a few hours ago and melting has begun. When I went to bed we had 6" and now it looks down quite a bit, just won't know until I'm out there. With temps reaching mid to upper 40's today and the continuing 'heat wave' this weekend, this may all be gone by tomorrow afternoon. Alas, this is going to be one slushy day.

P - You're a magnet for atmospheric anger. It's just insanity how strongly the storms have hit your area the past few years. Good luck with cleanup.

We struggled to get flurries here but about 25 miles southeast of me had close to 4".

The 13" we had from the "Snowtober" storm last October was gone in 2 days (the very next day on south facing hills/sunny areas) so I expect most of the snow will be gone by this evening except for the shady spots.

Spring Lake:  Five inches measured this @0700  total.   Radar signature showing rain last night while we were in moderate snow.   

Temperature never got close to 32F for the nor'easter. We had clouds and breezy conditions especially yesterday morning. No precipitation.

I am looking forward to the warm up. I am not ready for snowstorms this time of the year. I don't mind a couple of inches in November, but there is still things to do outside.

Hi everyone. No snow here; not even a dusting. Amazing to hear the totals east of us. Hope you guys still have power, P and LT.

It's been called Winter Storm Ari by the original winter storm name callers in Southern New England. WFSB - named last years October storm Alfred. Tell the Weather Channel to quit muscling in on naming our storms!

Howdy folks. Leveled is the word. Whatever "Sandy" didn't do this one polished off. Every single tree with damage. Here's six select photos. Keep in mind my development is 20 years old and these are juvenile trees around 25-35 feet at most. Imagine the older developments with the 60-80 foot trees that are common in Monmouth County.

Power in and out. On and off. Substation explosion here, transformer explosion there. Somehow we keep coming back on. Priority neighborhood due to many factors. Emergency personnel and such.

Well, here ya go...catastrophic.













That last one, usually you see right through to a house 25 feet away. Instead it is all downed tree now. Amazing stuff. Catch ya all later lot of cleanup and snow removal. Probably hit around 10 inches or so overall. Compaction and melting doing a number already thank god. Plows coming through, driveway cleared, berm next, then some limbs. Cut down overhanging ones on several neighbors trees and mine already.

So,I visit Dr. Masters blog to see if there is anything new being reported,other than the usual in fighting going on,I happen to see a quick update from Dr. Masters in the blog last night.Now please keep in mind this is a two week away GFS model update,so not going to get all excited about it,but it certainly catches my interest,curious blizz if you've seen anything long range.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters

Quoting Pcroton:
Howdy folks. Leveled is the word. Whatever "Sandy" didn't do this one polished off. Every single tree with damage. Here's six select photos. Keep in mind my development is 20 years old and these are juvenile trees around 25-35 feet at most. Imagine the older developments with the 60-80 foot trees that are common in Monmouth County.

Power in and out. On and off. Substation explosion here, transformer explosion there. Somehow we keep coming back on. Priority neighborhood due to many factors. Emergency personnel and such.

Well, here ya go...catastrophic.













That last one, usually you see right through to a house 25 feet away. Instead it is all downed tree now. Amazing stuff. Catch ya all later lot of cleanup and snow removal. Probably hit around 10 inches or so overall. Compaction and melting doing a number already thank god. Plows coming through, driveway cleared, berm next, then some limbs. Cut down overhanging ones on several neighbors trees and mine already.

Wow P. You guys must have REALLY pissed Mother Nature off because I barely even saw slush accumulate. Shafted in Sandy and this one. No complaints though.

Quoting NEwxguy:
So,I visit Dr. Masters blog to see if there is anything new being reported,other than the usual in fighting going on,I happen to see a quick update from Dr. Masters in the blog last night.Now please keep in mind this is a two week away GFS model update,so not going to get all excited about it,but it certainly catches my interest,curious blizz if you've seen anything long range.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters

Holy $#!@ that happens and I'm gonna have to get on my knees in prayer for December. Someone reassure me and tell me that's totally asinine please lol.

Quoting NEwxguy:
So,I visit Dr. Masters blog to see if there is anything new being reported,other than the usual in fighting going on,I happen to see a quick update from Dr. Masters in the blog last night.Now please keep in mind this is a two week away GFS model update,so not going to get all excited about it,but it certainly catches my interest,curious blizz if you've seen anything long range.

Latest 06Z GFS shows an unsettling possibility for Nov 22 - 23: a tropical cyclone heading towards New England, a blocking ridge in place over Greenland, and a strong negatively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S., which would have the potential to pull the tropical cyclone to the NW and merge with a big extratropical cyclone over New England. Granted, 2-week GFS forecasts are very low reliability, but I don't like seeing another Sandy-type situation predicted by the GFS.

Jeff Masters

First of all this is at 300 some hours and the 12z GFS already looks much different. Never listen to any model runs after 240hrs and even think it has more than a 1 or 2% chance of happening. Second of all the system the 6z had merging with the storm off the east coast was a very weak non-tropical low. It started out as a TD or weak TS and quickly became extra tropical as it turned north. The system is not even in the same ballpark as the recent nor'easter let alone Sandy. The block and the two lows are easily visible in the image below:

There is one caveat to this though. While the latest ensemble forecasts do show the NAO going positive briefly, they also indicate a sharp decrease to more of a negative NAO in about 10 days, which will favor a plethora of east coast storm scenarios, but most likely a nor'easter.

wunder,I completely agree,I was actually kind of surprised that Dr. Masters threw that out there.Models flip flop within a few days of a storm,nevermind 2 weeks,but *lol* even the thought of such as scenario,boggles the mind.

Pcroton, that's awful! I do appreciate your posts and photos, for the "news" too often doesn't really inform us of the real situation. I'm amazed that you have had power often enough to post here.

Took me 7 hours to clean it up. Huge pile of debris now.

Helped a few people out with shoveling and dangerous limb removal. Now I'm wiped out. While most people still staring at it all in awe I always feel it's best to dive right in and get it done.

Just chiming in to say all is well.

Also this tidbit: I am about 10 minutes east of Freehold, and maybe 3-4 miles east of Allaire. I think they both got under the heavy band for a little longer than us when it set up in the county. So maybe my guess of around 10-10.5 inches is pretty good if just a little underdone. What does it matter...

=====================
By late Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service was predicting up to 4 inches of snow in some parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties and had issued a winter weather advisory for the area. But a lot more snow fell in some locales, including 13 inches in Freehold, 12 inches in the Allaire section of Howell, and 12 inches in Jackson and Manchester, according to unofficial observations reported to the National Weather Service Mount Holly office.

More snow and less wind than predicted. Overall, a better outcome than I had expected. Still, there were about 60,000 additional power outages this morning in NJ. Moving on, I am very much looking forward to reading the winter forecast. Last year at this time virtually all of the long-range forecasters were predicting serious cold and snow for winter along the I-95 corridor (I know, so what else is new? Terrorize the most people for the buck!) Zach's forecast was the only one that accurately called the wave of ridges that kept us mild for most of the season. I won't go so far as to hold out hopes for three months of +NAO this year, but I am interested to know what's coming.

Quoting Pcroton:
Howdy folks. Leveled is the word. Whatever "Sandy" didn't do this one polished off. Every single tree with damage. Here's six select photos. Keep in mind my development is 20 years old and these are juvenile trees around 25-35 feet at most. Imagine the older developments with the 60-80 foot trees that are common in Monmouth County.

Power in and out. On and off. Substation explosion here, transformer explosion there. Somehow we keep coming back on. Priority neighborhood due to many factors. Emergency personnel and such.

Well, here ya go...catastrophic.













That last one, usually you see right through to a house 25 feet away. Instead it is all downed tree now. Amazing stuff. Catch ya all later lot of cleanup and snow removal. Probably hit around 10 inches or so overall. Compaction and melting doing a number already thank god. Plows coming through, driveway cleared, berm next, then some limbs. Cut down overhanging ones on several neighbors trees and mine already.

Thanks for the pics, how close are you to redbank, nJ

Pcroton - That is terrble. Sorry that your development saw much tree damage. You just can't get trees that tall in a few years.
Hopefully, with the warm up the next week your area can get some type of normality.

Blizz - good call with the storm. You called this almost a month ago. It just stayed a bit further off the coast. You know how these storms can be so fickle, even with models. You did say recently that the models have a good grasp on these systems. Well, maybe they didn't on this one.

Quoting wxgeek723:


Holy $#!@ that happens and I'm gonna have to get on my knees in prayer for December. Someone reassure me and tell me that's totally asinine please lol.

Keep praying, though I'm thinking that Mother Nature may not be heeding the power of Love in the Universe this season. I'd suggest a move to NW VT or Canada, but that's when the blocking ridge over Greenland will shift a wee bit and we'll get clobbered up here instead.

Pcroton!

Ohhhh myyyy!

Thanks for the photos. I am reminded of several snow and ice storms we've had in NW VT. For what it's worth, the trees here have largely recovered. My son, who is a wildlife biologist, says that whenever a tree comes down everything else around it cries "YES!!" ~ because the available nutrients get reallocated, so to speak.

But the changes in the beauty of the landscape take time to adjust to. We have a bit of a wait before the trees and shrubs we planted last year to fill the hole left when 4 trees came down on 1 December 2010 are large enough to really fill in the space again.

Do you have any white birches? A big windstorm made one of ours bow down to the ground and it only came about halfway back up afterwards. 6 months later another windstorm, from the opposite direction, stood that same tree back up again!

Rest up all you need.