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Last Updated: 4:09 AM GMT on October 14, 2009
— Last Comment: 4:22 PM GMT on October 14, 2009
This October 12 at 120353Z (10:53 pm CDT on October 11th) marks a very special anniversary in Meteorology. 30 years ago from the previously mentioned date, the lowest sea level barometric pressure ever observed was recorded in the eye of Super Typhoon Tip. The measurement, recorded by an aircraft reconnaissance mission into Tip, bottomed out at a whopping 870 mb (25.69 in Hg), equivalent to being nearly a mile high in the atmosphere under normal circumstances! This pressure beat out the previous record holder (Super Typhoon June of 1975) by a full six millibars, and no direct measurement has since surpassed the measurement, with the lowest direct measurements since then being 879 mb from Super Typhoon Vanessa (1984), the 882 mb measurement from aircraft reconnaissance in Hurricane Wilma, and the 883 reading from Super Typhoon Forrest (1983). Super Typhoon Tip also holds the record for the largest tropical cyclone ever recorded in terms of wind radius. With a radius of tropical storm force winds extending out nearly 600 nm from his center, Tip's windfield was over 4 times larger than Hurricane Ike's at maximum size! What made Tip so special? Were there certain condidtions present for Tip that allowed him to behave as he did? And is it possible that there were other tropical cyclones stronger than he??? This blog is being written to look back at Tip's history, conditions, reports, records, as well as to question whether any of Tip's records have succumbed to the passage of time and other intense tropical cyclones that have roamed the world the past 30 years.
 Like many infamous tropical cyclones, Super Typhoon Tip had humble beginnings. Tip was the third of three tropical cyclones to originate from the WPac monsoon trough in the first week of October of 1979, with the others being Tropical Storm Roger and Typhoon Sarah. Tip became a tropical depression near Micronesia on October 4th, only hours after the tropical depression that was to be designated as Typhoon Sarah developed near the Philippines. A day and half prior, Tropical Storm Roger developed about midway between the two locations and near Guam. Because Roger was the first developing storm, his circulation became established as the dominant one in the region and adversely affected the organization of both Sarah and Tip. Roger quickly developed a large and raking circulation which sheared and cut off most of the moisture supply from Sarah and Tip. Both Sarah and especially Tip moved erratically during their early lives. This was also likely caused by Tropical Storm Roger via the interaction of the circulations in a process known as the Fujiwara Effect. Needless to say, Tip's first week of existence was a struggle. By October 7th, Roger was becoming extratropical as he was being caught up in the westerlies and began to accelerate away, and this allowed conditions to become more favorable for the development of Tip. However, Tip was left in bad condition after his struggle with Roger, and it took a couple of days for him to organize before the full advantage of the conditions could be taken. During this time period, Tip made an approach on Guam as a strengthening tropical storm. Although Tip missed the island to the south, tropical storm conditions were felt across the island and several inches of rain fell. After passing by Guam and the Marianas, Tip entered the jet fuel of the Philippine Sea, an approximate parallel of NW Caribbean in the Atlantic Basin. With favorable conditions ahead, Tip was expected to become a very strong Typhoon. However, probably no one had any idea how strong Tip would become. The next section of the blog will be on the strengthening of Tip from a tropical storm to the largest and strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded. The format will have an image of image and a short explanation on what is occurring during the time of the image. The images are very large, so they are in clickable thumbnail format: a small image will be shown which can then be clicked on and viewed at full size.  October 9th, 0900Z: When Tip was making his nearest approach to Guam, he was still a tropical storm (on the verge of becoming a Category 1 Typhoon), but was already showing very intense convection with cloud tops as cold as -80*C. At the time, Tip was bringing tropical storm conditions to Guam as well as several inches of rain. Tip was just starting to enter the Philippine Sea, where very favorable conditions for strengthening existed. Winds are estimated at 60 kts and pressure at 975 mbs.  October 9th, 2100Z: 12 hours later, Tip has begun to explosively intensify over the Philippine Sea. Cloud top temps are approaching -100*C, among the coldest convective temps ever recorded. Tip's cloud tops would never again become this cold. Winds are estimated at 80 kts and pressure at 955 mbs.  October 10th, 0600Z: Another 9 hours later pass and Tips extremely cold cloud tops warm considerably as the the storm was probably undergoing considerable structural changes (EWRC, size increase, etc...). At this time, the first bout of intensification is beginning to finish. Winds are estimated at 85 kts and pressure at 950 mbs.  October 10th, 1200Z: Just 6 hours later, Tip begins his second and greatest bout of intensification as cloud top temps again cool below -90*C. Even though cloud top temps are slightly warmer than previously, they are much more structured, which can be implied by the symmetry of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Not only is Tip rapidly increasing in intensity at this point, but he is also rapidly increasing in size. As the second bout of intensification begins, winds are estimated at 90 kts and pressure at 940 mbs.  October 11th, 0000Z: After another 12 hours pass, Tip is estimated to have become a Super Typhoon. During this time, Tip went through a discrete EWRC (which is evident due to the increase in eye size as compared to the previous image), but this appears to have a negligible effect on intensity. With a round, clear eye surrounded by a nearly circular CDO with a timp of below -80*C, Dvorak T# at this time are approaching the maximum value of 8.0. At this time, winds are estimated at 130 kts and pressure at 900 mbs. However, winds increase to 140 kts (the threshold of Category 5) and pressure falls to 895 mbs shortly afterwards.  October 11th, 1200Z: Another 12 hours later marks the end of Tip's second bout of intensification as cloud tops again begin to warm and the CDO becomes slightly more irregular as more structural changes again likely took place. Tip more or less held a steady strength during this period and even might have weakened a slight bit, with winds estimated at 140 kts and pressure at 900 mbs.  October 11th, 2100Z: 9 hours later brings about Tip's 3rd and final bout of intensification. Once again, Tip has a well defined eye surrounded by a circular CDO with temps around -90*C. It is about this time when Dvorak T#s bottom out at 8.0, making Tip one of the few storms in which this has occurred (others include Gay of 1992, Angela of 1995, Ivan and Joan of 1997, and Monica of 2006). At this time, JTWC estimated Tip's winds at 160 kts and pressure at 875 mbs.  October 12th, 0300Z: Six hours later, despite a slight warming of the CDO from around -90*C to about -80*C, Tip is estimated to hold a steady intensity. At this point, Dvorak T#s have dropped below 8.0, but another type of measurement contradicts this slight weakening trend. 53 minutes later, at 120353Z, aircraft reconnaissance records a pressure of 870 mbs within the eye of Super Typhoon Tip: the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded in the world. Recon also reports that Tip has a radius of Tropical Storm force winds in excess of 1100 km (almost 600 nmi!), which is another record.  October 12th, 0600Z: Two hours and 7 minutes after the record-breaking pressure measurement, Super Typhoon Tip is officially upgraded to a peak intensity of 165 kts and 870 mbs, despite a continued weakening trend depicted by the warming of the CDO in satellite imagery. No other storm has ever been officially recorded to be as strong.  October 12th, 1800Z: 12 hours after advisories peaked Tip in intensity, Tip's central pressure has risen 30 mbs back to 900 mbs, despite an only 10 kt windspeed drop down to 155 kts. Tip appears to be once again undergoing structural changes. An EWRC is evident by looking at satellite imagery and this is probably only one of many changes Tip is undergoing. At this point, Tip was expected to begin recurvature, but Tip's circulation had become so massive that it influenced the surrounding steering patterns. The normal way to forecast a tropical cyclone didn't apply to Tip: he had become so large that he was steering entity in upon itself, not something that was going to be steered! Basically, forecasters had no idea where Tip was going.  October 13th, 1200Z: Tip continued to weaken, and by this time dropped below Super Typhoon status. I have not found a reason for Tip's weakening at this point, but I suspect that Tip ran into an area of shear or possibly Tip's giant circulation may have pulled dry air from Continental Asia into his system. Very slowly but surely, Tip's windfield began to shrink and the synoptic pattern once again started to influence Tip to the degree it would most any other tropical cyclone. However, at this time, Tip remains a giant among tropical cyclones and is still as much of a synoptic feature as any other weather system on the map at that point. Intensity at this time was winds of 125 kts and pressure of 910 mbs.  October 17th, 0000Z: Three and a half days later, Tip continues his weakening trend but by now, his windfield has been significantly eroded down. Tip has now finally lost his battle with the synoptic weather patterns and begins his recurvature, following an intense trough towards Japan. Westerly shear and dry air is now having a profound effect of Tip, and most of his convection is oriented on the east side of his circulation. At this time, Tip has winds of 100 kts and a pressure of 935 mbs. By the next advisory 6 hours later, Tip's winds drop below that of a Category 3 hurricane. This is the beginning of the end for Tip.  October 19th, 0000Z: Another two days pass and Tip makes landfall on the Japanese Island of Honshu as a Category 1 storm with winds of 70 kts and a pressure of 965 mbs. By this time, Tip is rapidly losing tropical characteristics as he accelerates off to the northeast. Even in a greatly weakened state, Tip causes moderate damage and nearly 100 deaths in Japan.  October 19th, 0600Z: By now, Tip is moving so fast that he has crossed the entire length of Honshu in just 6 hours. Tip's winds have dropped below typhoon intensity with winds of 60 kts and a pressure of 968 mbs and has now completed extratropical transition. However, Tip has one last trick to pull...  October 20th: 0600Z: Interestingly, Tip manages to strengthen one last time, but this time as an extratropical cyclone. The "Extratropical Cyclone formerly known as Tip" drops nearly 20 mbs in 24 hours and bottoms out with a pressure of 950 mbs and lashes Russia's (although back then it was still the Soviet Union) Kurl Islands and Katchakan Peninsula with winds over hurricane force. It would take more than two more days until Tip wound down enough to finally dissipate as he became absorbed by another extratropical cyclone over the Bering Sea. And so ends the life of Super Typhoon Tip: Meteorological Perfection. *This blog is under construction! Don't forget to stop by when completed. All comments are welcome.
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