marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 250 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
Frontal boundary has pushed SSE and through straits of FL to along NW coast of Cuba to offshore of N coast of Yucatan with drier air obviously moving SW across the E Gulf. Partial ascat pass across this area shows winds in the 15-20 kt range and seas likely 4-7 ft. Broad troffing extends from central Bay of Campeche NNW to near 27n95.5w with nwly winds 10-20 kt persisting along coast of Veracruz area. Seas likely 3-6 ft across W half of basin with possible Max of 7 ft across NW Central. High pressure across se US will move slowly ENE to NE and into Atlc through the weekend and will maintain fresh flow across the NE and N central portions with winds gradually veering through sun. Light to moderate sly flow expected just ahead of a cold front exiting the TX coast late Sun morning. The front will reach the central Gulf waters on Mon with fresh to locally strong N flow W of the front.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
Pair of tropical waves will continue across the central Carib today and tonight and across SW and W Carib Fri through sun and into Central America and epac. Fresh to strong E to ESE trades, with 7-11 ft seas prevail across the Basin E of 75w attm as strong E Atlc ridge has built WSW almost to the Bahamas. Strong trades extend well E of the Lesser Antilles to about 55-56w where seas are 8-12 ft per altimeter data this morning. These conditions will shift W and expand slowly across the central Carib next 48 hours with seas building to 8-13 ft, while wind diminish slightly across the tropical N Atlc waters but sufficient fetch to maintain 7-10 ft seas. Ridge will weaken and shift NE as frontal system moves into central Atlc over the weekend but high building of E coast of US behind front will reinforce pres gradient across the basin through the weekend to maintain rough conditions.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
Frontal boundary extends from near 31n68w to NW Bahamas near 25.5n77w to NW coast of Cuba with dry air spilling SW behind it. Winds NW of front has dropped off to around 20 kt with seas 7-10 ft. Ridge to the E and se of front producing moderate to fresh se to S winds E of the front with recent ascat pass showing broad area of 20 kt se winds across N coastal waters of Dr and into Turks and Caicos that will likely increase this evening. Pre front trough extends about 2 deg to the se of front and into central Bahamas. Weak low to develop along front today near 31n70w and is producing gales already N of the local area, and forecast to deepen and expand as it moves NE next 2 days and drags frontal remnants ESE, and slowly merging with trough. Sufficient pres gradient to persist across NW waters to maintain fresh NE to E wind and seas 6-7 ft through the weekend and veering to the se sun and Mon. E trades to freshen through srn Bahamas to Cuban coast during that time.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
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Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster stripling. National Hurricane Center.