Marine Weather for HS 101

Forecast

marine weather discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 403 am EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...Gulf of Mexico...

High pressure ridging across the area will strengthen through today. A stationary front extending from the Florida Keys northwest to southeast Louisiana will gradually dissipate through tonight. The pressure difference between the high pressure and lower pressures over the Texas will maintain a tight pressure gradient over the western Gulf through this afternoon, and continue to support strong southerly winds over those waters. The gradient will begin to slacken early this evening as a weak cold front approaches the Texas coast. This will allow for the strong southerly flow to diminish to mainly fresh to locally strong winds. These winds will shift to the northeast part of the northwest Gulf waters early on Saturday, then diminish to southwest moderate winds. The seas of 7-10 ft resulting from the strong southerly winds will subside to 5-7 ft on Saturday.

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will continue along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, then pulse on and off at night through the period. Similar winds near the northwest coast of Cuba and Straits of Florida will continue through tonight.

A weak cold front will move into the far northwest Gulf on Monday, then become stationary through Tuesday while becoming diffuse.

...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...

A tight gradient over the far north-central Caribbean associated with a large and strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic is sending strong northeast through the Windward Passage and over portions of the waters southwest of Cuba as noted in a recent ascat pass. These winds will diminish to fresh northeast winds on Saturday as the high pressure weakens as an area of low pressure develops north of Hispaniola over the weekend and lifts northward. The development of this low should influence the wind regime across much of the northern waters over the next several days. Expect strong northeast pulses of wind to the Lee of Cuba on Saturday and Sunday nights. Large north swell will reach the NE Caribbean passages late Friday night, and continue through early Sunday before subsiding.

Fresh trades will continue across the tropical waters E of the Antilles leewards with seas generally remaining 6-8 ft next 48 hours in mix of NNW swell and ENE tradewind swell.

...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...

The ascat pass from 0248z showed a large swath of strong northeast to east winds over much of the western portion north of 23n. Buoy and altimeter data indicate seas up to 14 ft north and northeast of the Bahamas. This is due to a very tight pressure over much of the area between strong high pressure over the area, and a cold front that extends from 27n65w to 25n74w and stationary to the Florida Keys. Models are in agreement that a surface low will develop along inverted trough currently southeast of the front. The location and shape of low continue to evolve with each new model run. Strong to near gale force Post-frontal NE winds will spread se across the entire area with 10-17 ft seas propagating southward across the waters E of the Bahamas late tonight into Fri. Models indicate large area of 25-30 kt winds and frequent gusts to gale force would seem likely. Will likely issue a Gale Warning. Pressure gradient will tighten further across the northern semicircle of low and at that time it appears sustained gales are more likely satuday evening through Sunday.

$$

.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:

.Gulf of Mexico... None.

.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.

.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... .amz115...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 65w and 70w... gale conditions possible sun into Mon. .Amz119...Atlantic from 22n to 27n E of Bahamas to 70w... gale conditions possible sun. .Amz121...Atlantic from 22n to 27n between 65w and 70w... Gale Warning Sat night. Gale conditions possible Sat night into Sun night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.

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