Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area
403 am PST sun Mar 1 2015
Synopsis...a few lingering showers will persist into this morning
mainly in Monterey and San Benito counties. Another weak system
will bring additional shower chances to the area on Monday. Warmer
and drier is expected by midweek.
Discussion...as of 3:19 PM PST Sunday...showers have diminished..but
there are still a few echoes moving from northeast to southwest
across central San Benito and Monterey counties. A few hundredths
of an inch have been picked up by automated gauges in San Benito
and inland Monterey counties over the past three hours. Expect
this shower activity to diminish through the morning as the parent
upper low continues to move south and then east into Arizona.
Temperatures are expected to be cool today with upper 60s and 60s
Another upper low center is prognosticated to move south along the
California coast on Monday. This is expected to bring another
round of showers and possible thunderstorms to the district Monday
into Tuesday. There continue to be some differences amongst the
model solutions concerning the trajectory of this impulse but most
of the models track the low too far west of the coast to bring
widespread showers. The European model (ecmwf) continues to track it closer to the
coast which would bring better rain chances to the area. Have left
slight chance or chance probability of precipitation in the forecast with the best chances
in the southern half of the district...but mainly from Santa Cruz
This system is forecast to move very quickly to the south with
shower chances ending Monday night. By Tuesday the disturbance
will be well to the south...and high pressure aloft over the
eastern Pacific will begin approaching coast. Temperatures will
warm beginning midweek with 60s and 70s expected. Dry conditions
will then occur into next weekend.
Aviation...as of 4:04 am PST Sunday...the current infrared satellite
image is showing yesterdays storm system now centered just off of
Point Arguello. This is placing the San Francisco and Monterey Bay
area in a zone of offshore flow. This offshore flow will prevent
stratus from forming today. However...residual moisture from
yesterdays storm system will promote the formation of cumulus
clouds this afternoon.
Vicinity of ksfo...VFR is anticipated to prevail today with MVFR
cloud bases this afternoon. Light offshore winds are expected to
give way to a gentle sea breeze this afternoon.
Confidence is high.
Ksfo bridge approach...similar to ksfo.
Monterey Bay area terminals...VFR is anticipated to prevail today with
MVFR cloud bases this afternoon. Light offshore winds are expected
to give way to a gentle sea breeze this afternoon.
Confidence is high.
Marine...as of 2:42 am PST Sunday...a weak surface pressure
gradient will promote generally light winds across a majority of
the coastal waters today. A storm system will slide over the
coastal waters on Monday bringing another round of showers and
potential thunderstorms to the area. This fast moving system will
be out of the area Tuesday leaving behind light winds and gentle
seas for the remainder of the week.
Public forecast: Sims
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