Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kffc 161140 aaa 
afdffc

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
640 am EST sun Dec 16 2018




Previous discussion... /issued 353 am EST sun Dec 16 2018/

Short term /today through Monday/...
no big forecast concerns this morning with strong model consensus
and no weather impacts expected. Upper low over far western NC
moving east as expected with wraparound stratus extending well to
the west (all the way to MS and la). Expect one more day with low
clouds, but no rain or drizzle and somewhat cool daytime temps
before clearing very late tonight. Monday will be a bright/sunshiny
day.

Snelson

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
models continue to come together on the system moving across the
County Warning Area at the latter half of the upcoming week. The long term begins
with dry high pressure, but as a upper trough over the West Coast
moves into the Southern Plains it will strengthen. This will pull
Gulf moisture into the County Warning Area beginning Wednesday night and
continuing into Friday. The system will deepen to a closed low,
however location is a bit different between the GFS and European model (ecmwf). The
resultant weather, however, will not be much different...and with
consistency in the models from run to run, have increased pops
Wednesday night through Friday night. Models also increase
instability Thursday and have continued with the mention of a
slight chance of thunderstorms for Thursday. Another issue will be
a rain/snow mix Friday night across the mountains. By this time,
however, the system is pulling out and the chances of
precipitation are decreasing.

17

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
mostly MVFR cigs around 1500-2500ft today will persist into tonight
before clearing out after 02z. No vsby issues expected. Sfc winds
will remain west 7-12kts thru the day and most of tonight as well
with some gusts near 20kts possible this afternoon.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
medium confidence all cig timing today.
High confidence in all other elements.



Snelson

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 56 39 62 36 / 5 0 0 0
Atlanta 53 40 58 38 / 10 0 0 0
Blairsville 48 35 55 30 / 20 5 0 0
Cartersville 53 38 56 33 / 20 0 0 0
Columbus 54 42 64 38 / 10 0 0 0
Gainesville 53 39 59 36 / 10 0 0 0
Macon 55 41 64 37 / 10 5 0 0
Rome 55 36 57 33 / 20 0 0 0
Peachtree City 53 40 61 35 / 10 0 0 0
Vidalia 57 43 65 40 / 5 5 0 0

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations