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fxus62 kffc 140820 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
420 am EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Short term /today through Wednesday/...
the center of the upper low over the Virginia/MD/PA area will drift
slowly to the northeast during the short term. High pressure
will gradually build in from the west during the period. Precipitable water
values remain low today and cape values continue at a minimum for
parts of north and East Georgia. However...some deeper moisture and
instability begin to return along the western border...and will
continue for the the area generally from Columbus to Macon. Low pops
have been expanded to the northwest and across the central sections.
Expect a diurnal influence so thunderstorms should dissipate
overnight. For Wednesday...most of central Georgia and the northeast
mountains seem the most favorable areas for convection. Forecast
instability remains limited over parts of the north. Have stayed
close to guidance temperatures.


Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
the long term period begins with a slightly drier airmass over
the state but that will be short lived as moisture begins to
increase again Wednesday night/Thursday morning. As the moisture
returns a weak surface Bermuda like ridge also builds in across
the northern Gulf and southeastern states. This will push the next
main frontal system moving east out of the MS River Valley
northward of the area also keeping the deepest moisture and
instability north of our County Warning Area through the end of the work week. By
Friday afternoon/evening...whats left of the frontal boundary
will slowly move south into the state as the Bermuda ridge also
weakens. This will allow a developing shortwave to push southeast out of
the mid MS River Valley and across Alabama/GA/SC for the weekend. This
wave will bring increased instability and deep layer moisture back
in across the region mainly Saturday through Monday. Bumped pops
up into the likely category for the same time frame and would not
be surprised to see the pops continue to go up as we get closer
to the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will stay near average with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and
low to mid 70s.



06z update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Daytime cumulus field
mainly few/sct050-060. Greater coverage in south mainly for kcsg
where enough chance of afternoon thunderstorms and rain to include a prob30 (mcn may
be close, but other sites should have chance too low for precip
mention). Winds mainly northwest at 6 to 8kts after 14z. Some isolated
areas of MVFR fog possible kcsg to kmcn 10z to 14z.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 91 69 91 71 / 5 5 10 10
Atlanta 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10
Blairsville 84 63 85 65 / 5 10 20 10
Cartersville 90 68 91 71 / 10 10 10 10
Columbus 93 74 93 73 / 40 30 20 10
Gainesville 88 69 89 71 / 5 5 10 10
Macon 93 71 92 73 / 20 20 20 10
Rome 91 69 92 71 / 10 10 10 5
Peachtree City 91 70 91 71 / 20 20 20 10
Vidalia 93 73 92 73 / 30 30 30 20


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...

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