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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
659 am EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Update for aviation...

Previous discussion... /issued 332 am EDT Mon Oct 22 2018/

Short term /today through Tuesday/...

The current freeze warning and frost advisory will be allowed
to run their course.

Dry airmass over the area to start with just increasing high clouds
today and maybe some afternoon cu.

Surface high pressure moves to the western Atlantic later today and
tonight allowing for a more moist lower level flow to set up that will
mean just some increased cloud cover.

A cold front is forecast to move across the area on Tuesday with
limited overall moisture and no instability and therefore is expected
to be dry.

Forecast high temperatures are running 3-6 degrees below normal today
across the area and around normal to maybe 5 degrees below normal across
the area on Tuesday.
Forecast low temperatures are running within 5 degrees of normal
across the area tonight.

Overall confidence is high.

Bdl

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...

The long term will start out dry but transition into a wet pattern
by Thursday. Tropical moisture will begin to spread back into the
forecast area on Thursday as low pressure forms in the western
Gulf. This low will track along the Gulf Coast and across North Florida
through Friday...then moving northeast along the Atlantic coast on
Saturday. There are some differences in timing between the GFS and
European model (ecmwf)...but the effect of a wet Thursday through Friday remains
the same. After that...a broad trough develops over the southeast
during the weekend...pushing a front across north and central Georgia
and the possibility of wrap around showers. In general...expect
showers each day from Thursday through Sunday with the best pops
central Georgia Thursday and Friday associated with the Gulf low.

41

&&

Aviation...
12z update...
VFR conditions will continue into tonight with just increasing
high clouds and some late day/overnight cu/SC.
Surface winds becoming east-S less 10 kts today and light and
variable overnight.

//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence for all elements today.
Medium confidence for clouds tonight.

Bdl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 67 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 68 52 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 63 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 67 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 71 50 72 50 / 0 0 5 5
Gainesville 65 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 70 49 72 48 / 0 0 5 5
Rome 67 44 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 68 45 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 73 55 75 53 / 0 5 5 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
frost advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...banks...Barrow...Bartow...Butts...Carroll...
Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...
Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...
Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...heard...Henry...Jackson...
Jasper...Jefferson...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Madison...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Newton...north Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Taliaferro...
Troup...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...white...
Whitfield...Wilkes.

Freeze warning until 8 am EDT this morning for the following
zones: towns...Union.

&&

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