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fxus62 kffc 180554 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1254 am EST Thu Jan 18 2018


06z aviation update below.



Previous discussion... /issued 921 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018/

Update...mainly a temperature and wind forecast for the
overnight period. Current temps on track which is saying something
given snow cover and difficulty in predicting radiational cooling
effects. No changes to ongoing forecast as wind chills have
already dipped to the single digits across north Georgia and Wind Chill
Advisory will stand as is.



Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...

Cold dry high pressure over the southern MS valley will drift
east along the Gulf Coast states through Thursday night.

Gusty winds will diminish most areas tonight but the remaining
winds combined with cold temperatures will continue very cold
wind chills and a Wind Chill Advisory will continue for much
of north and portions of W Georgia until 10 am Thursday morning.
Refer to the Wind Chill Advisory product for more information.

Otherwise, a quiet forecast can be expected this short term period.

Forecast low temperatures are running 17-19 degrees below normal
tonight and 8-13 degrees below normal for Thursday night.
Forecast high temperatures are running 7-11 degrees below normal for

Overall confidence is high.



Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make any significant changes to the long-term forecast grids
at this time. Still appears we will see the quick warm-up continue
into the weekend as the zonal upper flow turns southwesterly ahead of
the Sunday night/Monday system. Medium range models continue to bring
the weak upper wave across the area dry on Saturday so I have not
added any pops to that period. Please see the previous long-term
forecast discussion below.


Previous long term discussion /Thursday night through Tuesday/...

The long term begins with a zonal flow aloft and a dry airmass.
A southern stream short wave moves across the northern Gulf and
tracks gradually eastward off the Atlantic coast by the first of the
week. Models seem to bring this across our area without any
precipitation. The next rain event is on track toward the end of the
weekend and into the first of the week. GFS/European model (ecmwf) are now slower
with the surface front...starting the showers late Sunday night and
the front crossing the forecast area on Monday. Rain should be
ending on Monday night. There will be a warming trend through the
weekend and this will be an all liquid event. Have kept the mention
of thunder out for now...although some weak cape develops over west
central Georgia on Monday. Tuesday looks dry with near seasonal



06z update...
VFR conditions thru period with clear skies and northwest winds -
initially 6-12 kts then 4-6 kts after 00z this evening.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high on all elements.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 46 25 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 42 25 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 41 19 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 41 20 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 46 24 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 44 26 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 47 24 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 42 19 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 44 22 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 47 26 54 32 / 0 0 0 0


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for the
following zones: Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Meriwether...Murray...north Fulton...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...
Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...towns...Troup...



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